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redwing

Cambridge Hard Data

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Lazily browsing nethouseprices this evening when I stumbled across St Matthews Gardens in Cambridge, CB1 2PH. http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?co...mit=0&curPage=1

This is a new build site off York Street - a mix of town houses and flats. The first sales were in very late 2002. I thought I'd look at all the properties there that had been sold at least twice (i.e. once by the developer and then by first owner). So this covers a 3 year period.

I put the dates of sale, first and second prices into a spreadsheet and got the following info out at the end [unfortunately, spreadsheet not in Microsoft format - I'm a macuser who can't bear to spend money with MS).

I got the following statistics - which will cut and paste like pants....

(the columns are: a COUNT [1 to 15 properties], house number, H[ouse] or F[lat], sale dates (absolute numbers), number of days between sales, prices, price gain or loss, gain or loss per day)

COUNT number date diff price price diff gain/loss per diem

DAYS £ £ £

1 173 H 36440 270745

37013 573 250000 -20745 -36.204188482

2 237 F 36148 118000

37162 1014 150000 32000 31.558185404

3 233 H 36148 304500

36967 819 327000 22500 27.472527473

4 164 F 36148 235000

37191 1043 223500 -11500 -11.025886865

5 162 F 36148 190000

36480 332 182000 -8000 -24.096385542

6 156 H 36288 310995

37170 882 278400 -32595 -36.955782313

7 154 H 36516 272987

37124 608 270000 -2987 -4.9128289474

8 128 F 36295 134000

36991 696 168000 34000 48.850574713

9 126 F 36307 133000

36542 235 165000 32000 136.17021277

10 116 F 36307 165000

37016 709 156000 -9000 -12.69393512

11 114 F 36337 141995

36764 427 165000 23005 53.87587822

12 112 F 36337 141995

36984 647 164500 22505 34.783616692

13 110 H 36329 245000

37051 722 240000 -5000 -6.9252077562

14 11 F 36512 150095

37107 595 162500 12405 20.848739496

15 108 H 36416 270745

36902 486 283500 12755 26.244855967

SUMS 9788 6269457 101343 10.353800572

Summary

7 FALLERS, 8 RISERS

AVERAGE RISE PER PROPERTY £6756.2

AVERAGE DAYS KEPT 652.53333333

AVERAGE PRICE £208981.9

AVERAGE RISE % 3.2329115584

But the key points here are that buying new build is very, very risky. For nearly half the properties (and remember this was during a period of quickly rising prices nationally) show a FALL in price. The average rise was only 3.2% over 650 days (the average time properties were kept). This is less than 2% per year.

The moral of the story is.....

Buying newbuild flats and town houses is not going to make the average investor wealthier, and that's in a rising and favourable market. Heaven forfend what it will be like for the poor sods when other prices start to drop.

ps. if you think this warrants mention on the main forum please link it up. (don't really want to bump my own post dontchaknow)

Edited by redwing

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A note about current rentals.

Three flats in St Matthews Gardens are available on WrongMove:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/search.rsp?lo_u...bmit_dosearch=1

renting for £850pcm (£10,200 pa), £190pw (£9880 pa) and £170pw (£8840 pa)

Most recent prices for the one-bedders is £168000 giving a gross* yield of 5 - 6%

*gross = before letting agents, ground rents, maintenance, voids etc.

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St Matthews Gardens Update

Five more properties have been sold since the first post. Nos. 8, 146, 46, 56, 114

Here's the summary

4 Risers and 1 Faller

AVERAGE RISE PER PROPERTY £2772

AVERAGE DAYS KEPT 730 i.e. about two years each.

AVERAGE PRICE £213664

AVERAGE RISE % 1.30

Average annual rise % 0.65

It's interesting that the average rise has fallen in the last 5 sales compared to the first 15.

Link to NetHousePrices

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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