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Dubai Exile

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I am afraid the majority of you on this site need to take your heads out the sand and release each other from your collective comfort cuddle.

Let us forget the graphs, VI’s and the other stats for a moment and take a real example: my house.

I bought my tatty, 3 bedroom end terrace house in a boring outer suburb of London in 1999. You couldn’t wish for a more typical, boring house repeated up and down the country in similar boring suburbs.

It cost me 120k. If I had bought it a couple of years earlier it would have cost me 90k but I delayed because even at 90k I thought “prices can’t go any higher, surely?” and “90k is way to much for this tatty, 1950’s boring house”.

I am now selling. Not because I am scared that prices are going to crash but because I live overseas, and my house is even more tatty after being occupied over the last 6 years with generally very nice tenants. I would have to start spending on the place and that’s tricky from overseas. That together with the fact a friend made an offer saving all kinds of grief and estate agents fees, means it’s the right time for me to sell. I intend to buy a newly built appt/house in June when I will be in the UK for a month.

The selling price? 245k. The 3 estate agents who valued my house a month ago are constantly on the phone to me trying to get me to sell the house through them. I have had offers from buyers who have been told (unethically) by the valuing EA’s that my house is coming onto the market. It has not even been marketed! Some offers have been higher than 245k but I have already agreed to sell to a friend so of course I do not entertain them. There are many, many buyers out there.

The price of my house has gone up 20k in the last few months.

On a very simplistic method of calc I have made a profit of 160k (capital gain plus rent income minus interest on a 90k mortgage minus maintenance & EA fees). Not bad but I am sure that if I had bought a better property in a better part of London I would have made even more.

Also not bad considering my personality is (unfortunately) much too cautious to be an entrepreneur. I wish I was, if I had the balls back in 1999 I could have spread my initial 30k deposit over 5 properties instead of putting it down on one.

The above is the hard facts and you can check similar gains on the land registry website.

Why do you believe a crash is inevitable? I have just spent the last few years working in Austria and Switzerland and they don’t have boom and bust. They have never had a property crash. The property prices steadily grow year on year at a moderate level. Perhaps the UK economy is following that model now.

It’s also completely different now from the situation in the late 80,s. There are many more BTL houses. These people who own BTL properties do not need to sell because the mortgage is being paid by the growing number of people who need to rent. Therefore the price will not drop because if it does the BTL will not sell, meaning a greater demand for those homes which are available and quickly putting the price back up.

And crucially the population is growing and people are getting divorced far faster than homes are being built. Very simple supply and demand economics.

My advice?

Spend as much as you can raise, in the best area you can afford and reap the rewards.

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welcome - first post?

you should make a few friends here

Why do you believe a crash is inevitable?

spend at least the same time reading as it took you to write your post. Read some of the intelligent posts here on macro economics, interest rates, asset bubbles, market cycles, sentiment. Keep an open mind and then read your own post again. Then we can discuss.

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My advice?

Spend as much as you can raise, in the best area you can afford and reap the rewards.

So why are you selling? Take your own advice and use your profits to invest in a further 5 BTL properties in the UK if you believe the market in infallible, however you will soon realise that the rent doesn't cover the mortgage!

If it's a one way bet then you should take your own advice and buy as many properties now just as you wished you had done in 1999, after all, what's changed? You're essentially saying you've missed the boat otherwise.

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Interesting... how did you find a website called housepricecrash? Most people find the site by putting "house price crash" into google....

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In 1999 everyone was bullish about property. I wanted to buy from 1998 till 2004 but my wages were never high enough. If I had, I would have done as well as you, and would probably be as optomistic. However it didn't happen. I am less sure of the benefits for buying a property at the moment, as economic conditions are not the same now (I think we can all agree).

So yes we missed a boat, but is not so likely to come back in a hurry.

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I am afraid the majority of you on this site need to take your heads out the sand and release each other from your collective comfort cuddle.

Let us forget the graphs, VI’s and the other stats for a moment and take a real example: my house.

I bought my tatty, 3 bedroom end terrace house in a boring outer suburb of London in 1999. You couldn’t wish for a more typical, boring house repeated up and down the country in similar boring suburbs.

It cost me 120k. If I had bought it a couple of years earlier it would have cost me 90k but I delayed because even at 90k I thought “prices can’t go any higher, surely?” and “90k is way to much for this tatty, 1950’s boring house”.

I am now selling. Not because I am scared that prices are going to crash but because I live overseas, and my house is even more tatty after being occupied over the last 6 years with generally very nice tenants. I would have to start spending on the place and that’s tricky from overseas. That together with the fact a friend made an offer saving all kinds of grief and estate agents fees, means it’s the right time for me to sell. I intend to buy a newly built appt/house in June when I will be in the UK for a month.

The selling price? 245k. The 3 estate agents who valued my house a month ago are constantly on the phone to me trying to get me to sell the house through them. I have had offers from buyers who have been told (unethically) by the valuing EA’s that my house is coming onto the market. It has not even been marketed! Some offers have been higher than 245k but I have already agreed to sell to a friend so of course I do not entertain them. There are many, many buyers out there.

The price of my house has gone up 20k in the last few months.

On a very simplistic method of calc I have made a profit of 160k (capital gain plus rent income minus interest on a 90k mortgage minus maintenance & EA fees). Not bad but I am sure that if I had bought a better property in a better part of London I would have made even more.

Also not bad considering my personality is (unfortunately) much too cautious to be an entrepreneur. I wish I was, if I had the balls back in 1999 I could have spread my initial 30k deposit over 5 properties instead of putting it down on one.

The above is the hard facts and you can check similar gains on the land registry website.

Why do you believe a crash is inevitable? I have just spent the last few years working in Austria and Switzerland and they don’t have boom and bust. They have never had a property crash. The property prices steadily grow year on year at a moderate level. Perhaps the UK economy is following that model now.

It’s also completely different now from the situation in the late 80,s. There are many more BTL houses. These people who own BTL properties do not need to sell because the mortgage is being paid by the growing number of people who need to rent. Therefore the price will not drop because if it does the BTL will not sell, meaning a greater demand for those homes which are available and quickly putting the price back up.

And crucially the population is growing and people are getting divorced far faster than homes are being built. Very simple supply and demand economics.

My advice?

Spend as much as you can raise, in the best area you can afford and reap the rewards.

Well i can look out of my window and see the same property that has stood on the market for a long time..

The market is not policied..

You may sell yours for more..

but I can buy a property for less then I would have a year ago..

clear and evident fact..

and economic crisis..??

;) i know more then you.. :)

Its a speculative market.. and convincing us that you may have made a fortune if you had bought many properties several years ago..

Is not really new news to us..

duh..

Its just that you don't know why... :)

In that is the trick..

Edited by apom

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I am afraid the majority of you on this site need to take your heads out the sand and release each other from your collective comfort cuddle.

Let us forget the graphs, VI’s and the other stats for a moment and take a real example: my house.

I bought my tatty, 3 bedroom end terrace house in a boring outer suburb of London in 1999. You couldn’t wish for a more typical, boring house repeated up and down the country in similar boring suburbs.

<-Trunc->

:lol: lets forget all the graphs, data, stats etc - yea let forget all the facts and just concentrate on you. You and your house, 1 sale out of many, lets soley concentrate on you because the world revoles around you and your one house doesnt it. Lets not remember that the south shown falls across the board and somerset fell by around -10% lets just remember you.

So, it begs the question, who are you :lol:

Why do you believe a crash is inevitable? I have just spent the last few years working in Austria and Switzerland and they don’t have boom and bust. They have never had a property crash. The property prices steadily grow year on year at a moderate level. Perhaps the UK economy is following that model now.

Yes but we do have boom and bust, we have had property crashes, we have just had a boom , there are very few people who deny we have had a housing boom, infact all the media freely accept we have had a boom, so we dont follow that model. Booms are followed by bust its what happens.

Edited by theChuz

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a little contradiction is between this:

The price of my house has gone up 20k in the last few months.

and this:

...Austria and Switzerland and they don’t have boom and bust. They have never had a property crash. The property prices steadily grow year on year at a moderate level. Perhaps the UK economy is following that model now.

is 20K in a few months a steadily grow at a moderate level? don't make my slippers laugh!

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"Anyone who seeks reassurance from vested interests that the economic cycle has been eliminated is suffering from delusional fantasy on a grand scale."

:D

Edited by Realistbear

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welcome - first post?

you should make a few friends here

spend at least the same time reading as it took you to write your post. Read some of the intelligent posts here on macro economics, interest rates, asset bubbles, market cycles, sentiment. Keep an open mind and then read your own post again. Then we can discuss.

As you correctly imply I have very little specialist economics training or economics knowledge. However the point of my post was to ignore all the glossy jargon, graphs and statistics which obviously impress you. My example is based on what's really happening out there, and my common sense interpretation of simple economics.

I have re-read my post as you suggest. Whilst I don’t claim it to be well written, I think it is understandable. My post is based on 100% accurate, contemporaneous data, rather than the crystal ball gazing and interpretation which appears to be preferred on this site.

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It is.. that would make £100,000 a year...

dumb people, too much access to too much debt.. and no concept that £20,000 is a lot of money...

Who can earn £20,000 in five years to throw away...????

1 in 1000?

but we accept that as house price inflation and accept levels of debt that make £20,000 seem so small..

It might.. right up to the point you try and pay it

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So why are you selling? Take your own advice and use your profits to invest in a further 5 BTL properties in the UK if you believe the market in infallible, however you will soon realise that the rent doesn't cover the mortgage!

If it's a one way bet then you should take your own advice and buy as many properties now just as you wished you had done in 1999, after all, what's changed? You're essentially saying you've missed the boat otherwise.

I explained why I am selling in my original post:

"I am now selling. Not because I am scared that prices are going to crash but because I live overseas, and my house is even more tatty after being occupied over the last 6 years with, generally, very nice tenants. I would have to start spending on the place and that’s tricky from overseas. That together with the fact a friend made an offer saving all kinds of grief and estate agents fees, means it’s the right time for me to sell. I intend to buy a newly built appt/house in June when I will be in the UK for a month."

I do intend to re-invest the money. I shall buy something newer in London, plus I am looking into other properties overseas.

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OK - so you've gained c. 160k in a few years.

Where do you think that money has come from? Who's paid for your profits? Is it genuine new wealth, or is someone else worse off because you're better off? Do you think there's an ethical dimension here?

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Interesting... how did you find a website called housepricecrash? Most people find the site by putting "house price crash" into google....

I found the site when I was researching the value of my house to establish the price to agree with my friend who is buying. I didn't use HPC in any searches.

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As you correctly imply I have very little specialist economics training or economics knowledge. However the point of my post was to ignore all the glossy jargon, graphs and statistics which obviously impress you. My example is based on what's really happening out there, and my common sense interpretation of simple economics.

I have re-read my post as you suggest. Whilst I don’t claim it to be well written, I think it is understandable. My post is based on 100% accurate, contemporaneous data, rather than the crystal ball gazing and interpretation which appears to be preferred on this site.

you said contemporaneous!

that shows you are disingenuous

it's not really dangerous

you are just trolling us

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I explained why I am selling in my original post:

"I am now selling. Not because I am scared that prices are going to crash but because I live overseas, and my house is even more tatty after being occupied over the last 6 years with, generally, very nice tenants. I would have to start spending on the place and that’s tricky from overseas. That together with the fact a friend made an offer saving all kinds of grief and estate agents fees, means it’s the right time for me to sell. I intend to buy a newly built appt/house in June when I will be in the UK for a month."

I do intend to re-invest the money. I shall buy something newer in London, plus I am looking into other properties overseas.

Cool.. Property is not the only way to make money..

but very soon it will be yesterdays...

all markets eventually become yesterdays.. certainly if any traces of speculation are a part of them..

Just be aware of that..

I am not a poor person, but I am a happy one..

granted today I am as sick as a pig.. (ill)

Property will become yesterdays market.. wathc for the signs..

If you see anything like the chief economist of an economy repeatedly warning of this.. pay attention..

:)

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As you correctly imply I have very little specialist economics training or economics knowledge. However the point of my post was to ignore all the glossy jargon, graphs and statistics which obviously impress you. My example is based on what's really happening out there, and my common sense interpretation of simple economics.

well done for buying low and selling high! Reallly cant' fault that. No-one here will argue that if you bought in '99 and sold today you would make a killing. Your timing was perfect whether by design or by fortune.

What we're talking about now is whether we can replicate that success today and for that it's well worth looking at FACTS. Since you only want to look at anecdotals :

I am moving into rented accomodation next month. Looking at very similar properties on the Land Registry I have calculated that I would have to pay about £2200 a month in mortgage repayments if I bought the place. My rent will be £1560 a month. What do you suggest I do?

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As you correctly imply I have very little specialist economics training or economics knowledge. However the point of my post was to ignore all the glossy jargon, graphs and statistics which obviously impress you. My example is based on what's really happening out there, and my common sense interpretation of simple economics.

I have re-read my post as you suggest. Whilst I don’t claim it to be well written, I think it is understandable. My post is based on 100% accurate, contemporaneous data, rather than the crystal ball gazing and interpretation which appears to be preferred on this site.

Its not crystal ball gazing, its the economic cycle..

what we are saying will happen we are saying because every comparable occurance since biblical times has panned out in exactly the way we say it will happen this time..

Its how the economy works..

and If I were possibly to be convinced that the economic cycle could be fixed I would rather doubt that this could be acieved at the top of the biggest ever recorded boom. and if you think this has happened by design you have a different opinion of Gordon Brown then I..

It always works out this way..

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:lol: lets forget all the graphs, data, stats etc - yea let forget all the facts and just concentrate on you. You and your house, 1 sale out of many, lets soley concentrate on you because the world revoles around you and your one house doesnt it. Lets not remember that the south shown falls across the board and somerset fell by around -10% lets just remember you.

So, it begs the question, who are you :lol:

Yes but we do have boom and bust, we have had property crashes, we have just had a boom , there are very few people who deny we have had a housing boom, infact all the media freely accept we have had a boom, so we dont follow that model. Booms are followed by bust its what happens.

Who am I? Just somebody trying to post some data on this site, which i assumed would be welcomed. I do not think the world revolves around me, but if you read my post carefully you will see that the house I own is in fact typical of millions of similar houses in the UK. So I am representative of a huge proportion of homeowners/potential homeowners.

Why? Is this not the first ever government which has actually stated its policy is to remove boom and bust? Perhaps the government have got this one right and achieved their stated desire in this regard.

It is irrelevant whether we have just had a boom or a bust , if a more central European style continuous growth has been introduced it could happen at any time in the previous economic cycle of boom and bust.

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Yes but we do have boom and bust, we have had property crashes, we have just had a boom , there are very few people who deny we have had a housing boom, infact all the media freely accept we have had a boom, so we dont follow that model. Booms are followed by bust its what happens.

Who am I? Just somebody trying to post some data on this site, which i assumed would be welcomed. I do not think the world revolves around me, but if you read my post carefully you will see that the house I own is in fact typical of millions of similar houses in the UK. So I am representative of a huge proportion of homeowners/potential homeowners.

Why? Is this not the first ever government which has actually stated its policy is to remove boom and bust? Perhaps the government have got this one right and achieved their stated desire in this regard.

It is irrelevant whether we have just had a boom or a bust , if a more central European style continuous growth has been introduced it could happen at any time in the previous economic cycle of boom and bust.

;)

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Yes but we do have boom and bust, we have had property crashes, we have just had a boom , there are very few people who deny we have had a housing boom, infact all the media freely accept we have had a boom, so we dont follow that model. Booms are followed by bust its what happens.

Who am I? Just somebody trying to post some data on this site, which i assumed would be welcomed. I do not think the world revolves around me, but if you read my post carefully you will see that the house I own is in fact typical of millions of similar houses in the UK. So I am representative of a huge proportion of homeowners/potential homeowners.

Why? Is this not the first ever government which has actually stated its policy is to remove boom and bust? Perhaps the government have got this one right and achieved their stated desire in this regard.

It is irrelevant whether we have just had a boom or a bust , if a more central European style continuous growth has been introduced it could happen at any time in the previous economic cycle of boom and bust.

200-300% inflation then fix it?

Seriously??

Living in some hope there..?

Devon, everyone is priced out.. Everyone.. solicitors included..

Self cert Interest only mortgages fraud cases, are priced out, but have managed to get the debt they cannot afford..

Edited by apom

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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