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What Is Happening On Here..

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Okay, I have contributed myself a fair bit...

always been a bull. Well as someone on here once said predicting and economic downturn after and economic up turn does not exactly get you the nobel prize in Economics.. The only trick is in the timing.

We see a market that has been cycling between affordabilty and un-affordability since the war and we have been promissed by both Gordon Brown and Mervin King that there will be no wage push inflation to make things affordable.

We have more houses per head of capita then we ever have had.. to the point where even the Daily Mail is running stories about hwo we all suddenly want to live alone..

so why do so many new contributers suddenly appear with the

"I have bene reading this for a year and haven't contributed, but I feel that I should now as I know there will never be a crash"

"You are all doomed, your whole generation"

"I have given up, there will never be a crash.."

Where are these people coming from..??

is it paranoid to believe that there are nefarious reasons..

It is amazing how quickly big news is hidden by many many threads appearing with some unknown admitting defeat ..

We are seeing massive stagnation of properties on the market.

Reported drop in prices for new builds.

BTL mortgage providers refusing against new builds.

If this was not a speculative market the price that houses sell for today would be the same as it was 8 years ago.

If the true price of a house was not where it was 8 years ago it is also impossible to say that it is what they are on the market for today.

and Interest Rates are on the rapid rise in every other economy in the world..

blah

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so why do so many new contributers suddenly appear with the

"I have bene reading this for a year and haven't contributed, but I feel that I should now as I know there will never be a crash"

"You are all doomed, your whole generation"

"I have given up, there will never be a crash.."

Where are these people coming from..??

blah

nulab is all around us.

These new loan scandals might hurt them a bit, depends on how tough teflon tony really is.

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Something odd is happening. Almost all the news on the global economy is bad. But a (brief?) rally on the (UK?) housing market seems to be happening. Could be the last hurrah is panicking many on the egdes. Boy will they pay!

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Anyone who thinks that HPC is going to be predictable is fooling themselves. IMO it is innevitable, but we're in for a long drawn out fight, and I'm experienced enough to realise I've no idea when. If you're not man enough to stick it out then fine, go buy. The markets are irrational and there'll be many false dawns. I'll not be convinced until I've negotiated a buge discount on todays prices and exchanged contracts.

I make money on the stock markets because I make decisions and stick to them. I'm only swayed by the opinions of people that I trust to be knowledgeable in these matters. Just saying the current situation hurts is not good enough.

If you can't wait then IMO you're dominated by your heart rather than head and will be evolutionarily selected against by the economy.

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Whats happening on here is that reality is dawning on a lot of people, that there isn't going to be a HPC for the forseeable future.

Its a 'journey' that a lot more are going to have to make and its hard to change your beliefs. You have to eat humble pie and people don't do that easily.

As I've said before, I was bearish when I first started reading this forum, but I realised a long time ago now, that it wasn't going to happen and nothing has changed my mind.

When I see the circumstances for a crash on the horizon I'm more than happy to call one and let you lot take the p1ss, but I just can't see where it's coming from. There is no harm done in being realistic, in fact its much more sensible than saying 'the crash is started' through all the price rises, just so that you can feel smug with your self 5 years down the line when one might start !

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Something odd is happening. Almost all the news on the global economy is bad. But a (brief?) rally on the (UK?) housing market seems to be happening. Could be the last hurrah is panicking many on the egdes. Boy will they pay!

Who cares. Nothing has fundamentally changed. The downside risks are huge.

Whats happening on here is that reality is dawning on a lot of people, that there isn't going to be a HPC for the forseeable future.

Its a 'journey' that a lot more are going to have to make and its hard to change your beliefs. You have to eat humble pie and people don't do that easily.

As I've said before, I was bearish when I first started reading this forum, but I realised a long time ago now, that it wasn't going to happen and nothing has changed my mind.

When I see the circumstances for a crash on the horizon I'm more than happy to call one and let you lot take the p1ss, but I just can't see where it's coming from. There is no harm done in being realistic, in fact its much more sensible than saying 'the crash is started' through all the price rises, just so that you can feel smug with your self 5 years down the line when one might start !

Welcome to the new paradigm. My a***. The crash is still on the horizon IMO there have just been more obstactles than expected.

IMN, why don't you buy if you're so bullish? I'd lend you the money at 20% APR.

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Anyone who thinks that HPC is going to be predictable is fooling themselves. IMO it is innevitable, but we're in for a long drawn out fight, and I'm experienced enough to realise I've no idea when. If you're not man enough to stick it out then fine, go buy. The markets are irrational and there'll be many false dawns. I'll not be convinced until I've negotiated a buge discount on todays prices and exchanged contracts.

I make money on the stock markets because I make decisions and stick to them. I'm only swayed by the opinions of people that I trust to be knowledgeable in these matters. Just saying the current situation hurts is not good enough.

If you can't wait then IMO you're dominated by your heart rather than head and will be evolutionarily selected against by the economy.

This is off the point but I just can't not say it. Human evolution has selected for both "head" and "heart". Heart also has survival value. Read Matt Ridley's "The Origins of Virtue" to see why. It's why people help a stranger who collapses in the street even though there's no direct benefit to them. And its why markets are in part irrational.

But I completely agree about house prices.

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This is off the point but I just can't not say it. Human evolution has selected for both "head" and "heart". Heart also has survival value. Read Matt Ridley's "The Origins of Virtue" to see why. It's why people help a stranger who collapses in the street even though there's no direct benefit to them. And its why markets are in part irrational.

But I completely agree about house prices.

There's nothing wrong with being altruistic. But when you're dealing with the huge monster called the economy you have to use your head.

I have no time for wimps who want to bail out before the endgame. Can't even entertain them.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Exercise good foresight now and you won't be looking back with the benefit of hindsight saying 'we bought right at the peak of the market and now we could buy our house for less' - how could we have been so stupid. All the signs were there, why didnt we see it coming? DON'T WORRY! Prices are not going up that is for sure. At worst they will stagnate (best they will fall), so there is no need to panic. Anyone who thinks prices are going to shoot up another 8% this year is dreaming.

Edited by Winners and Losers

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This is why I got fed up with the forum a while back - too many pseudo radical posters chanting the mantra and refusing to accept any reports that contradicted their religion. They then get all defeatist when the facts stare them in the face. I reported anecdotal evidence of the London market picking up. It has been. Yet I was shouted down as a heretic!

There will be many rallies and false starts over the coming years - if you can afford a property on one income and can factor in rates of 6-7% and view property as a home more than an investment jump on board now.

If this doesn't apply to you then why not take advantage of the flexibility and cost effectiveness of renting and look for investments elsewhere.

Without a sudden econonomic shock there is life in the housing beast yet, but it’s on a life support machine and can't be resuscitated forever!

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Exercise good foresight now and you won't be looking back with the benefit of hindsight saying 'we bought right at the peak of the market and now we could buy our house for less' - how could we have been so stupid. All the signs were there, why didnt we see it coming? DON'T WORRY! Prices are not going up that is for sure. At worst they will stagnate, so there is no need to panic. Anyone who thinks prices are going to shoot up another 8% this year are dreaming.

W&L. Even that could occur. There's plenty of liquidity sloshing around and if speculators think there's a bit more they can squeeze out of the tube they will. However, that should not detract us from the fact that the market will eventually move from the radar of the speculators once they see another equity class that they can corrupt and the capital returns from property really are stagnating. Once that happens a freefall will start to occur and FTBers will not have the resources or the credit rating to stop it.

As has been said time and again on here, the speculators are currently the banks' golden boys because their credit rating is so good, compared with FTBers. However, they've no vested interest in the market beyond making money and will ditch once the going gets tough.

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What ARE the "facts" at the moment? The HPI indices appear rigged to the upside, and anecdotal evidence suggests that not all is well with UK plc. It looks like we've had a rally, but not a sane or sustainable one. I can't see, if you were a bear 6 or 12 mths ago, why any new information available in the interim would make you change your mind? Surely there's MORE of a case to be bearish now.

Interpret the "facts" as objectively and honestly as you can, though as opaque as they may be, and have the courage of your convictions. If you feel that buying makes sense, and you want/need to and can afford it, then buy for godsakes. If not, wait for lower prices. Either way don't fret yourself to death about it.

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It looks like we've had a rally,

I wasn’t aware that it had finished – you mean that we are at the beginning of a rally – and it is sustainable while there is relaxed lending and investors investing free money – please supply some proof that HPI has stopped rising and that HPI “indices appear rigged” then maybe I will be more bearish – and don’t talk about facts without a single fact to support your post (sorry this post sounds much more aggressive than it was supposed to)

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Welcome to the new paradigm. My a***. The crash is still on the horizon IMO there have just been more obstactles than expected.

Absolutely 100% spot on IMO.

Affordability is so stretched the effect of credit tightening (which must only be a matter of time for multiple reasons) will I think bite fairly hard, fairly quickly.

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I wasn’t aware that it had finished – you mean that we are at the beginning of a rally – and it is sustainable while there is relaxed lending and investors investing free money – please supply some proof that HPI has stopped rising and that HPI “indices appear rigged” then maybe I will be more bearish – and don’t talk about facts without a single fact to support your post (sorry this post sounds much more aggressive than it was supposed to)

Well Ive stopped defending my views. I know my views are based on sound analysis and good logic, but they're not infalliable. I dont have conclusive proof of rigged indices or whatever. But I think we're past the point of rational or logical analysis. The "facts" are opaque, vague, many and varied, subject to spin and twisting on BOTH sides. Who to trust? Answer: ME. I've seen enough over the last 12mths to convince me of where the economy is going (nevermind house prices). It's batten down the hatches time IMHO. My opinion, and thats all it is AN OPINION, of where the we're going, is based on my heuristic assessment of the situation. Given the "facts" as they are yesterday and today, I believe we are heading for a brutal recession.

Frankly, that's good enough for me. My gut instinct has served me well in the past and Im not "desirous to lose money" to quote a Greenspan-ism. I want to get richer. So I have placed my bets, put my hard earned money where my mouth is. We'll see everything in due course.

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Guest Winners and Losers

W&L. Even that could occur. There's plenty of liquidity sloshing around and if speculators think there's a bit more they can squeeze out of the tube they will. However, that should not detract us from the fact that the market will eventually move from the radar of the speculators once they see another equity class that they can corrupt and the capital returns from property really are stagnating. Once that happens a freefall will start to occur and FTBers will not have the resources or the credit rating to stop it.

As has been said time and again on here, the speculators are currently the banks' golden boys because their credit rating is so good, compared with FTBers. However, they've no vested interest in the market beyond making money and will ditch once the going gets tough.

Does not compute, does not compute = :P:)

Yes, it could happen. If it does I will eat my words, my hat and up the medication.

Edited by Winners and Losers

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This is off the point but I just can't not say it. Human evolution has selected for both "head" and "heart". Heart also has survival value. Read Matt Ridley's "The Origins of Virtue" to see why. It's why people help a stranger who collapses in the street even though there's no direct benefit to them. And its why markets are in part irrational.

But I completely agree about house prices.

No it doesn't. They're probably a parasite. Knick their wallet and use 'em for protein feed for the pigs :)

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Guest

I've seen enough over the last 12mths to convince me of where the economy is going (nevermind house prices). It's batten down the hatches time IMHO. (snip ) I believe we are heading for a brutal recession.

Well said.

To quote myself off another thread:

Personally, I believe that the BOE - acting alone in the world - raised rates in a very careful and controlled manner in 2004 to stop the house party going tits up BEFORE the general election.

I don't totally accord with the BOE-bashing that goes on on this site. I have a little more faith: They know that housing booms drag the country's consumer economy into recession. I am beginning to strongly suspect that their game is to keep the country "ticking over" (but not in a great way, but not in an obviously bad way) until the USA catches up with us (happening now), since they've been behind us in their housing boom.

If the US economy goes into recession (!) then it will take out other countries too. It would have been a disaster for Britain to see us in a home-brewed recession for a couple of years, say, 2004-2006, for the USA to then go tits-up in 2006 and induce a wider global recession for X many years.

I suspect that the BOE monetary policy is to synchronise us with our foreign partners, so we have as small a period in recession as possible.

From a political standpoint, this hands New Labour the 2005 election with no ill feeling from the house-mad electorate (no jobs lost also), and it also means that when/if we do go belly up, it will be at the same time as the foreigners so we can blame them, AND we have the flexibilty to do a "quickie quarter point cut" if need be (ahem... August '05).

:D

So, a long reply to your point, but I do belive IRs will stick and then go down as we sink into recession.

Sorry guys.

IMHO.

I'm prepared to be proven wrong.

Edited by megaflop

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so why do so many new contributers suddenly appear with the

"I have bene reading this for a year and haven't contributed, but I feel that I should now as I know there will never be a crash"

"You are all doomed, your whole generation"

"I have given up, there will never be a crash.."

Where are these people coming from..??

is it paranoid to believe that there are nefarious reasons..

It is amazing how quickly big news is hidden by many many threads appearing with some unknown admitting defeat ..

You noticed this too? Normally between 1 -70 posts. The best one was somebody who put their first post up. We have had this kind of enterism before. At one stage it was agressive and obscene (member vicky whatever her name was from the EAs office?). But whatever it is it is alway a period in which a number of new posters simply flood the board with emotional feedback. This time it is a flood of "I am tired of waiting". Its designed as a validation of negative despairing emotions amongst its target audience by providing a pack with which to run. Just the same way as the BNP posters work to validate all the vile tendencies that people may resort in their despair by providing, not any substantial analysis, but another pack with which to run.

The critical aspect of all of this is that it is based on feelings and is entirely free of anything useful in terms of analysis. It simply works to generate a "common sense" of market direction (or blaming immigrants etc. etc. etc.) Try deconstructing all the meanings of both "common" and "sense" to truly understand what I mean.

That is why I value most the posters I disagree with on a theoretical level but who present good arguements, or genuine experience to be considered. They challenge me to think rather than encouraging me to feel the feelings that are convenient to their thinking.

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yeah, but this time there are confirmed 'real' bears panicking too.

It's wierd to watch...

maybe this time it's different, and there IS an infinite amount of free money, and we WILL all be millionaires this time next year.

(not)

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Whats happening on here is that reality is dawning on a lot of people, that there isn't going to be a HPC for the forseeable future.

Ponder ponder ponder ponder. I must disagree.

Please read all of the posts on Housepricecrash.com forum.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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