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I found this fascinating this morning as here, in Wales, the BBC is crowing about how buoyant housing is but... I live inSouth Wales and have been keeping an eye on house prices from Cardiff to Pembroke for, um, about 4 years now...

It is a complete fallacy to say that house prices are rising in Wales. The EAs are full of 'reduced', 'back on market', '5% stamp duty paid', 'no chain', etc, etc, and there are some serious reductions going on now... although nothing that yet begins us to get back to 6 months ago let alone 3 or 4 years ago.

You can go to Cardiff now and go visit any number of newly built houses and flats and literally chose to buy any number of ones already completed... A few months ago you would be queuing up to buy a plot of an unbuilt and unseen property. The same is happening in Swansea where, with land near the sea much more scare, having this 'luxury' has always been rare.

What is also happening is that you will occasionally see a new property come onto the market and it is priced ALOT lower than a house, sometimes in the same street but certainly in the same area, that has been on the market for months and months.

However, there are plenty of houses still coming on the market asking the most outrageously inflated prices and it is this - a combination of greedy EAs and greedy sellers - whom I personally believe are repsonsible for the figures in Wales...

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Guest wrongmove

The LR data is entirely reliable as it is based on actual sales, not just asking prices or approvals, and it includes cash deals as well as geared one.

So it gives a very accurate picture of what happened six months ago

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Those Land Registry figures are truely awesome and frightening. I cannot believe that people have been paying those high prices. It is only bricks and mortar after all. It can only mean that alot of people are going to end up toast. Don't people realise that they have to spend the next 25 years or so trying to pay off all that massive amount of capital on the mortgage in order to own an asset that is in actual fact not even worth a fraction of what they paid for it? The property market is just one big game that is being stoked by the establishment to create a feel-good factor for home-owners prior to an election, but what is truely bizarre is that people are actually falling for the con and being taken in by the hype and paying the ridiculous prices. Just wait for sentiment to change and turn negative. There will be alot of people looking pretty foolish when this bubble finally bursts.

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I've been loking at the Greater London figures specifically.

As expected total volumes, and volumes for flats/maisonettes in particular (BTL/FTB) are contining to slide. They're at their lowest Q3 level since 2000.

Many observers feel that the property market was due to peak in 2000, and certainly the tail off in volume sales in late 2000 suggests that this should have been the case. But then aggressive interest rate cuts were made to stimulate the economy and the rest is history. This just helped to postpone the inevitable.

But here we are in the same situation a few years later. Falling volumes, a ridiculous peak in average prices (£280K for G.London - what's the av. salary for London, about £40K - that's a 7 x multiple !!!).

So where do we go from here ?

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Tne figures are difficult to plough through. They set the Q3 2004 figures against the Q3 2003 figures, which of course shows annual rises.

If you look more carefully and look at the quarter on quarter movement, you get:

All of England & Wales: Q2 2004: £175,774, Q3 2004: £187,971, +6.9%

Greater London: Q2 2004: £277,615, Q3: £287,470, +3.5%

Still showing rises then, but not much. I reckon the quarter on quarter figures for Q4 2004 will show a fall for Greater London.

Also, another very revealing item is on the first page:

Year on year (Q3 2003 - Q3 2004) new flats: -0.03%

In other words, the average new built flat bought in Q3 2003 has return nil capital return in one year. That's nil, nada, nothing, nix, njet in nomial terms and therefore a loss in real terms. The collapse of the BTL market will lead the way.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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