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The MPC really are showing themselves to be barely competent. First they nearly force an HPC by sending rates too high, now they're on a path of having to drop rates dramatically if they allow stagnation, rising unemployment and low to no growth to continue. Naturally, having to drop rates dramatically in the future will cause the HPI they seek to avoid.

If I were you bears, I'd be lobbying them for a pre-emptive drop now.

:D

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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The MPC really are showing themselves to be barely competent. First they nearly force an HPC by sending rates too high, now they're on a path of having to drop rates dramatically if they allow stagnation, rising unemployment and low to no growth to continue. Naturally, having to drop rates dramatically in the future will cause the HPI they seek to avoid.

If I were you bears, I'd be lobbying them for a pre-emptive drop now.

:D

Quality.

But flawed. As well you know.

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The MPC really are showing themselves to be barely competent. First they nearly force an HPC by sending rates too high, now they're on a path of having to drop rates dramatically if they allow stagnation, rising unemployment and low to no growth to continue. Naturally, having to drop rates dramatically in the future will cause the HPI they seek to avoid.

If I were you bears, I'd be lobbying them for a pre-emptive drop now.

:D

Don't you have a Robert Kiyosaki article to go read somewhere?

http://www.richdad.com/pages/article_dollar_crisis_part1.asp

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The figures suggest Bank of England worries about inflationary pay deals are proving unfounded as one of its main worries is how fast earnings rise.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/15032006/140/joble...prise-high.html

time to lower rates?

What the UK and the US have at the moment is the worst of both worlds - rapidly rising inflation but NOT in wage inflation. This is dreadful for the individual citizen.

They may well have to lower IRs to stimulate demand but that's just fine by me because it'll be the ultimate admission that we're in a recession. And 'Look to the past' if you think that lower IRs are going to prevent this ludicrous bubble deflating then you're going to be disappointed. I'm afraid to say you're in a lose-lose situation. :D

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What the UK and the US have at the moment is the worst of both worlds - rapidly rising inflation but NOT in wage inflation. This is dreadful for the individual citizen.

They may well have to lower IRs to stimulate demand but that's just fine by me because it'll be the ultimate admission that we're in a recession. And 'Look to the past' if you think that lower IRs are going to prevent this ludicrous bubble deflating then you're going to be disappointed. I'm afraid to say you're in a lose-lose situation. :D

There is no such thing as lose-lose. You get heads, you lose, I win. You get tails, you lose, I win.

If there really were rising inflation, I'd be sending my mail shot of raised rents off everytime a tenancy agreement passed 6 months. I'd be laughing despite the higher IR's that go with the higher inflation.

Lower IR's are much easier for me, they deliver cash to my account without me having to send out the rent rises.

That may be lose-lose to you, but it's win-win to me!!!!!

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I'm afraid to say you're in a lose-lose situation.

I am in a lose – lose situation at the moment – I Sold To Rent – and have paid rent and watched house prices rise – yet I am holding off buying just to see how this pans out.

If they lower IR’s there is nothing to stop this bubble continuing – employment is still very good – personally I am hoping that they will try to deflate the bubble slowly – like in Japan – but I don’t think it will work and hopefully crash quickly

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There is no such thing as lose-lose. You get heads, you lose, I win. You get tails, you lose, I win.

If there really were rising inflation, I'd be sending my mail shot of raised rents off everytime a tenancy agreement passed 6 months. I'd be laughing despite the higher IR's that go with the higher inflation.

Lower IR's are much easier for me, they deliver cash to my account without me having to send out the rent rises.

That may be lose-lose to you, but it's win-win to me!!!!!

Lower IR will drop sterling and lead to higher prices for imports such as oil upon which the UK is now dependent. As we manufacture next to nothing lower rates will bring the much needed recession and continued healthy growth in unemployment numbers. Recession + higher unemployment = lower house prices. As fewer people will be employed and earning less (due to inflated imports) they will have less to spend on things such as rent.

On the other hand, if the rates go up up and away we will have a splendid house price crash and short shaper recession as the MEW comes to a sudden halt.

For FTBs, STMs and STRs its a win-win from here on out. The economic cycle simply does not favour HPI or investments that have no scope for capital appreciation during the currency of the cycle (BTLs).

It is time to sell investment properties and your own home if unemployment strikes or the mortgage payments become too painful in the wake of tightening credit.

Edited by Realistbear

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Lower IR will drop sterling and lead to higher prices for imports such as oil upon which the UK is now dependent. As we manufacture next to nothing lower rates will bring the much needed recession and continued healthy growth in unemployment numbers. Recession + higher unemployment = lower house prices. As fewer people will be employed and earning less (due to inflated imports) they will have less to spend on things such as rent.

The £ has already dropped lots from last year – due to America continually increasing IR – and the UK lowering theirs- I think it works out that we now pay 10% ish more for every thing priced in $. – I haven’t seen this Armageddon so far because of inflated imports

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If there really were rising inflation, I'd be sending my mail shot of raised rents off everytime a tenancy agreement passed 6 months.

And, uh, how are your tenants going to pay increased rents when the price of essentials is increasing much faster than their incomes? Rent will be one of the first things that people cut back on if their incomes are dropping in real terms.

I haven’t seen this Armageddon so far because of inflated imports

That's because companies have been cutting profits rather than increasing prices. That now seems to be coming to an end: there's only so long a company can swallow increasing costs before they have to pass it on to their customers... and after building up huge inflationary pressures for years with insanely low rates, interest rates will have to increase massively to eliminate those pressures.

Edited by MarkG

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The MPC really are showing themselves to be barely competent. First they nearly force an HPC by sending rates too high

TTRTR, I may not have read all the squillions of posts you've made on this site (who could possibly?). But I had never realised that you were so worried about the prospect of a crash.

Perhaps you still are - after all, it is all in the hands of the MPC.

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and so it continues.

i think i might go sign on myself, starting to feel a bit left out.

If I were a FTB, I would be more worried about unemployment than the cost of a house. At the moment, my only problem would be not having a house of my own. In a few months, I could be looking for a job and a place to rent in dolesville.

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The figures suggest Bank of England worries about inflationary pay deals are proving unfounded as one of its main worries is how fast earnings rise.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/15032006/140/joble...prise-high.html

The number of people out of work and claiming benefit rose by 14,600 last month to 919,700. That is the largest monthly rise since the economic slump of 1992.

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If I were a FTB, I would be more worried about unemployment than the cost of a house. At the moment, my only problem would be not having a house of my own. In a few months, I could be looking for a job and a place to rent in dolesville.

Well we are screwed at the moment, so to be honest, I would rather take my chances with a unemployment than continue as things are at the moment.

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The MPC really are showing themselves to be barely competent. First they nearly force an HPC by sending rates too high, now they're on a path of having to drop rates dramatically if they allow stagnation, rising unemployment and low to no growth to continue. Naturally, having to drop rates dramatically in the future will cause the HPI they seek to avoid.

If I were you bears, I'd be lobbying them for a pre-emptive drop now.

I think you're right, drop 'em to at least 3% and watch inflation fly, we can be pretty certain of >5% rates when the CPI is flying at double-digits.

As TTRTR is saying, the economy is so strong, employment is strong and thus supportive of high house prices and rents; yet the economic growth is a very tepid and unemployment rising strongly therefore supportive of much lower rates as soon as possible, and therefore supportive of high house prices. I see no contradiction in this thinking.

Edited by BuyingBear

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Sterling slips on jump in joblessness

Sterling wobbled in European morning trade on Wednesday as the UK’s jobless tally rose at its fastest pace for 13 years in February,

reviving talk of a possible rate cut.

Perhaps more importantly still for the forex market, average earnings growth remained at 3.5 per cent year-on-year in January, below both expectations for a rise to 3.9 per cent and the 4.5 per cent rate that the Bank of England has said in the past is compatible with its inflation target.

“As recently as two months ago, January’s wage round was seen as critical in determining the degree to which higher energy prices had fed through into wage demands for 2006, a concern expressed by a number of hawks on the monetary policy committee,” said Daragh Maher, senior FX strategist at Calyon.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060315/94/g6j9j.html

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Sterling slips on jump in joblessness

Sterling wobbled in European morning trade on Wednesday as the UK’s jobless tally rose at its fastest pace for 13 years in February,

reviving talk of a possible rate cut.

Perhaps more importantly still for the forex market, average earnings growth remained at 3.5 per cent year-on-year in January, below both expectations for a rise to 3.9 per cent and the 4.5 per cent rate that the Bank of England has said in the past is compatible with its inflation target.

Ouch, there goes your purchasing power in the context of hyper-inflating energy costs, does anyone smell stagflation?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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