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Can You See The Wood For The Trees?

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There has been a significant increase in the number of For Sale boards in the last 2 weeks (London W9)

Is it just seasonal?

Are people accepting IR's are not going down and could well go up?

Are the new Landlord regs forcing amateur BTL to sell up?

Are there not enough tenants around?

Could well be startin, personally I'm waiting for the first hike in interest rates to tip the balance.

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There has been a significant increase in the number of For Sale boards in the last 2 weeks (London W9)

For sale boards are an indication that houses are for sale - it is not an indication of a crash.

The intense sales activity in London tells me that the market is picking up; whether this is a short term blip or the start of another bullrun (which admittedly can't last forever) remains to be seen

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All HPCs are determined by hindsight. They begin with a sharp fall off in the YoY gains (this happened in 2005). They then go into negative Y o Y gains and its downhill for the next 5-7 years.

We are in year 2 of the HPC. 2005 was the first year that we saw a sharp reversal in Y o Y gains. 2006 will probably turn ugly in the 3rd and 4th Q when IR begin to bite.

The economic cycle cannot be beaten. Boom bust is here to stay.

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I've been saying for months that the crash is well underway although it is a landslide rather than a crash. As I keep saying I fail to understand why people judge the state of the market on the headline stats from the VIs. They do not represent the true state of the market. WHY DON'T PEOPLE WAKE UP TO THIS?

Look at the the latests HBOS stats - reading the headlines suggests a gently rising market. Looking at the detail (as suggested by a poster here yesterday) prices fell in many parts of England last year - by up to 10%. The places they are rising are in parts of Northern Ireland etc and this distorts the facts.

Look at the Land Registry stats - the picture is a varied one, but again in many areas PRICES ARE BACK DOWN TO THEIR 2003 LEVELS - in many cases that represents a 15-20% drop from the peak. And if you measure the actual prices paid against peak ASKING prices the fall is even more dramatic.

THE MARKET IS SLIDING - don't let anybody fool you into thinking otherwise.

Apologies for extensive use of CAPS but I feel frustrated.

:angry:

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I think the graph on the front page says it all.

We have hit a bit of a flat spot.

I've monitored 10 properties on rightmove in my area (M Keynes) in Q1 this year.

They haven't shifted at all....Nor have they reduced in price either.

Clearly it's not a boom. Not a crash IMO either.

To me, it's a stand-off which could go either way.

People try to apply logic to the debate, but HP is a lot about confidence and perception.

A flock of sheep running down a hill coming to a fork in the valley.

1 side, green grass.

The other side, hard rocks.

Which way will the sheep go?

Answer: Dunno really, can't apply too much logic where sheep are concerned.

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The crash started in 2003 when house prices peaked, but it's early days yet, the process will take until at least 2008-9 and will accelerate in severity in 2007-8 IMO of course.

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The crash started in 2003 when house prices peaked, but it's early days yet, the process will take until at least 2008-9 and will accelerate in severity in 2007-8 IMO of course.

What on earth makes you think house prices peaked in 2003? Didn't you notice a bit of HPI in 2004? :blink:

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THE MARKET IS SLIDING - don't let anybody fool you into thinking otherwise.

Hmm.

Oxford - OX2. House in the paper Friday, 690k, went to see it in the afternoon. Offered asking. Cash. So did somebody else. And more. Going to sealed bids this week.

Victorian Terraced, semi-squalid, neglected, downright shabby in places. I'd weep but nobody would notice.

Local market's been like this for a year.

It might be a local bubble mate, or it might not be, but house price crash it aint.

Crash is all relative to your own personal circs. The tat that raced up 2001-2004 will crumble but 4 bed family houses on the right street are rock solid. Absurd HPI has resulted in fewer of them coming to the market as the only sellers are downsizing, divorced or dead - little movement up means buyers fighting and going over the asking.

People might grin and bear this for years. Or it might slide overnight.

What is clear, is that house buying is a miserable and joyless activity for most.

Off for a grappa.

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Not from where I am sitting (North London).

Nor here (South London)

I'd advise anyone who believes that the crash is underway to go out into their local market and try making offers; if my experience is typical, you'll find it very hard to negotiate significant discounts. The days of lopping 10pc or more off properties appear to have passed (for the time being at least).

And seriously, does anyone really think that the crash started in 2003?

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Nor here (South London)

I'd advise anyone who believes that the crash is underway to go out into their local market and try making offers; if my experience is typical, you'll find it very hard to negotiate significant discounts. The days of lopping 10pc or more off properties appear to have passed (for the time being at least).

And seriously, does anyone really think that the crash started in 2003?

2005 was the first year we saw a dramatic reversal in YoY gains. If Hometrack were right there was a slight negative that year I believe. 2006 appears to show a early bounce BUT it may be fewer houses selling at higher prices whereas market crashes are really determined by volume decreases (Supply and demand factors).

Dr. Bubb is probably right when he says watch the builders. Most around here are offering 5% plus stamp duty and other "incentives" without asking.

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All HPCs are determined by hindsight. They begin with a sharp fall off in the YoY gains (this happened in 2005). They then go into negative Y o Y gains and its downhill for the next 5-7 years.

We are in year 2 of the HPC. 2005 was the first year that we saw a sharp reversal in Y o Y gains. 2006 will probably turn ugly in the 3rd and 4th Q when IR begin to bite.

The economic cycle cannot be beaten. Boom bust is here to stay.

But only one crash saw nominal house price falls. (in 1990)

In 1985-88 IRs fell down to 8% and this was combined with tax busting budgets and huge amounts of investments pouring into the country. The economy seriously overheated and the housing market boomed out of control.

To combat inflationary pressure Lawson hiked rates to around 15%. This knocked out consumer spending and the housing market.

Then there was the monetary disaster when we joined the ERM and the economy kept sinking (and had to pull out in 1992).

That's why we got nominal falls last time.

What is similar this time?

The economy is NOT overheating, it is quite stable.

Rates are NOT on a rollercoaster.

The £ is free floating. We are in MORE control of our monetary policy today (no repeat of the ERM farce).

House are MORE affordable than they were in 1989 (in terms of monthly payments)

Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery

Why are we in year 2 of a crash in nominal prices?

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Relative to Gold, the global property crash started months ago.

In the USA, Builders like Hovnanian (HOV) have fallen 50% when measured in Gold,

the longest-lived, and ultimate currency

A very strange comparison even if all property was an investment. Most isn't so why do you think comparison to gold is valid?

I'm amazed you aren't taking advantage of current low interest rates to borrow a huge amount on an interest only long term fixed rate mortgage and then using your trading skills paying down the principle in a matter of years.

I guess it's a lifestyle rather than rational choice.

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I'm also thinking the crash is underway, the HBOS data was quite encouraging but it will be interesting to see the next land registry figures.

Does anyone know when the registry figures are released?

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What on earth makes you think house prices peaked in 2003? Didn't you notice a bit of HPI in 2004? :blink:

Depends which figures you use and where you look, but I know from the Land Registry figures that prices peaked in a number of areas as far back as then (ignoring 'blips'). :)

I lived in OX2 for a while and it is an exception due to the fact that it is the tope end of the market in Oxford. Nevertheless looking at actual prices there I am not sure that prices have RISEN above inflation since around 2003.

THE MARKET IS SLIDING - don't let anybody fool you into thinking otherwise.

Hmm.

Oxford - OX2. House in the paper Friday, 690k, went to see it in the afternoon. Offered asking. Cash. So did somebody else. And more. Going to sealed bids this week.

Victorian Terraced, semi-squalid, neglected, downright shabby in places. I'd weep but nobody would notice.

Local market's been like this for a year.

It might be a local bubble mate, or it might not be, but house price crash it aint.

Crash is all relative to your own personal circs. The tat that raced up 2001-2004 will crumble but 4 bed family houses on the right street are rock solid. Absurd HPI has resulted in fewer of them coming to the market as the only sellers are downsizing, divorced or dead - little movement up means buyers fighting and going over the asking.

People might grin and bear this for years. Or it might slide overnight.

What is clear, is that house buying is a miserable and joyless activity for most.

Off for a grappa.

Not underway yet – it’s having a little bounce on it’s own in the corner – refusing to listen to all this nonsense about crashing

Depends where you are talking about, but I think HBOS falls of up to 10% indicate a dramatic slide... maybe a crash!

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Prices are falling ...now...today! (whatever V.I's say)

Only one trigger required eg: Interest rate rise, to send prices on a downward tumble.

Prepare yourself ;)

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I believe the crash has started, although I feel that much importance should be placed on the media which is commonly based on mis-information and mis-representation of figures.

It will be when people start talking down the pub about a friend they know (insert sob story of financial ruin) who is suffering from the negative equity issues associated with a crash that we will feel it in the community.

Many individuals will be asking 'what does negative equity mean?'

There's a lot of numpties out there - who just watch that shizen houzen square thing that controls their fragile minds - who will not have realised that recent bad high street and manufacturing news means something more for society as a whole.

Asking for these people to have an understanding of credit and debt is to be honest pointless.

It will hit some people blind in the face.

But it is happening, I can smell it.

There has been constant bad business and financial news for the home owner and the economy for too long for it to be a blip.

Anyway - they are not affordable.

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underway, but slow

I only speak for the area I live but many reductions and loads of rental property on the market, BTL's crapping it looking at the rental yield drops :lol:

Its regional I'd say, some areas are even increasing in value, it seems just one sale gets the EAs foaming at the mouth and the words desireable location get used in the chav dirt holes that you can imagine

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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