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brainclamp

Reality : Skipton Building Society Report

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"Introduction

There was once a time when life was full of certainty.

It was a time when people could predict their life cycle with a fair degree of accuracy.

The predictable life cycle involved leaving home and getting married in your early/mid 20s, children arriving in your late 20s and by your mid 40s you had an empty nest and were blessed with more time and money. There then followed the path to retirement at age 60 - 65.

Throughout this existence not a lot changed. Of course, this is a stereotype, but it does illustrate the relative stability experienced by previous generations. On top of this, the safety net provided by the state was dependable and sufficient - publicly funded health, education and pensions.

This world no longer exists."

http://www.skipton.co.uk/press_office/publ.../Fullreport.pdf

A MAJOR MORTGAGE LENDER - THE SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY REPORT : 'Diary of a Financial life'

DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND FORECAST:

"the average age of mothers at first birth was 25 two decades ago and rose to 27.4 in 2003.

The average age of women giving birth increased to 29.4 in 2003 from 27.9 one decade years before. Our forecast is that the average age of women giving birth will increase well above 30 during the next two decades.

Something else is happening as well. The birth rate in the UK fell to 1.6 in 2002 - the lowest level since records began 150 years ago. Around 10 years ago the birth rate was 1.8. A combination of economic and social forces suggests that fertility rates will remain at the current low level."

"The average age of a first-time buyer is set to rise well above 35 years of age over the next 20 years. A survey of mortgage lenders' data shows that in 2003, the average age of a first time buyer was 33 to 36 years. In 1983 the average age of a first time buyer was 31 to 33 years."

"In the future, the term 'dependent children' will be re-defined to include providing a deposit so that children can gain their first foot on the housing ladder. Since 1996, the average first time buyer deposit has increased from around £5,000 to £30,000.

In many instances debt-ridden students may be forced to rely on parental guarantees, based on the housing equity held by their parents. All sorts of sophisticated equity release schemes, involving both parental and grandparent housing equity, are likely to appear. This trend is likely to be re-enforced by the rising multiple of average house prices to first time buyer incomes."

"in the future people will spend more of their life out of, rather than in, work."

Edited by brainclamp

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
There was once a time when life was full of certainty.

It was a time when people could predict their life cycle with a fair degree of accuracy.

True, the beginning of the eighties ended that cosyness.

"in the future people will spend more of their life out of, rather than in, work."

That scenario is frightening but highly probable.

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A MAJOR MORTGAGE LENDER - THE SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY REPORT : 'Diary of a Financial life'

I used to work (indirectly) for SBS, and to describe them as "forward thinking" would have been a little optimistic, I reckon.

Canny, yes.

"The average age of a first-time buyer is set to rise well above 35 years of age over the next 20 years. A survey of mortgage lenders' data shows that in 2003, the average age of a first time buyer was 33 to 36 years. In 1983 the average age of a first time buyer was 31 to 33 years."

"In the future, the term 'dependent children' will be re-defined to include providing a deposit so that children can gain their first foot on the housing ladder. Since 1996, the average first time buyer deposit has increased from around £5,000 to £30,000.

In many instances debt-ridden students may be forced to rely on parental guarantees, based on the housing equity held by their parents. All sorts of sophisticated equity release schemes, involving both parental and grandparent housing equity, are likely to appear. This trend is likely to be re-enforced by the rising multiple of average house prices to first time buyer incomes."

I wouldn't dream of asking my semi-retired mortgage-free parents to MEW to fund my first purchase. They've done enough for me already without further extending their working lives to buy me a debt prison.

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True, the beginning of the eighties ended that cosyness.

That scenario is frightening but highly probable.

So, this golden period ended in 1980. When did it start? Maybe 1950 or later? Surely it was a highly unusual period in history. Why should it continue?

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Well, lets get this clear.

It is fair to say that for most of the time this lifecycle has held true for the mass of people.

Also, before 1975 there was no north sea oil and gas bonanza in the UK.

From 1975 to 1985 the output of the UK rose by at least 10% soley through oil.

There is no reason why people whould be worse off in todays age!

People's standard of life is collapasing, and thats soley due to mass immigration being used as the main economic policy of this government.

Edited by brainclamp

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Well, lets get this clear....

People's standard of life is collapasing, and thats soley due to mass immigration being used as the main economic policy of this government.

That's just slightly a sweeping statement. Folk get turfed out of jobs for a lot of reasons. There are not remotely enough immigrants to this country to have such an effect. Outsourcing would be a more influential factor, as would the general disruption due to M&A activity and new foreign competition knocking out domestic production (viz car industry; ours was once the largest in Europe, now it hardly survives).

"Creative destruction" and "Natural selection" are buzz words amongst the intellectual "thought leaders" who populate the faculties of business schools and political research units. They are comfortably removed from the direct consequences to the "peasantry" far below. If there is anything that causes repeated unemployment, it is the abandonment of employees' interests by the commercial executives that takes Number One priority (AKA "flexible labour force"). The hypocrites expect loyalty but offer nothing in return by way of job security.

Behind that is the domination of the Stock Markets. Companies are run to serve their shareholders, not with a consideration for the employees or even the customers. This is central to the explanation of why Britain once dominated the world export market but now is just a two-bit player.

In the SBS article above there is a contradiction. House prices can't go up if people spend more time out of work than in work. Even getting MEW out of existing houses can't sustain high prices if the basic labour income is not there.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

So, this golden period ended in 1980. When did it start? Maybe 1950 or later? Surely it was a highly unusual period in history. Why should it continue?

I would say 1960 when the austerity of the late 40s and early 50s more or less ended. The late 50s 1958 and 1959 a nice change was taking place and most people felt the 60s was going to be quite exciting in stabilty and quality of life. The new LA properties were replacing the slums and people for the first time in their lives had a bathroom and inside toilet. I can remember clearly every year of the 60s with the great memories and the feeling how great life was becoming, had two jobs enabling me to buy a brand new mini van ( no tax ) at 21 years of age. Insurance £31 fully comp any driver, road tax £12 and petrol 25p a gallon. Deposit £90 and 36 monthly payments of £12-50p. Yep and the most popular lads with the girls were us who had wheels. ;)

And my full take home pay for both jobs £30 a week

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That's just slightly a sweeping statement. Folk get turfed out of jobs for a lot of reasons. There are not remotely enough immigrants to this country to have such an effect. Outsourcing would be a more influential factor, as would the general disruption due to M&A activity and new foreign competition knocking out domestic production (viz car industry; ours was once the largest in Europe, now it hardly survives).

The number of foreign born in the UK was 5% in 1997, and 10% in 2001, today I think its probably 20%.

In the SBS article above there is a contradiction. House prices can't go up if people spend more time out of work than in work. Even getting MEW out of existing houses can't sustain high prices if the basic labour income is not there.

Houses were also unattainable, for most ordinary people, 100 years ago. Ordinary people had to rent then, and save to cover for unemployed periods and illnesses - there was little social provision.

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The number of foreign born in the UK was 5% in 1997, and 10% in 2001, today I think its probably 20%.

Houses were also unattainable, for most ordinary people, 100 years ago. Ordinary people had to rent then, and save to cover for unemployed periods and illnesses - there was little social provision.

How can you be 'foreign' if you are born in the UK? If you are born in the UK you are british. That is why they give you a passport.

Anyhow, you post is utter rubbish. I remember my freinds dad telling me in 1989/1990 that the only people who would be able to afford houses in 10 years time would be millionaires. He got that a bit wrong........but it was popular hype at the time.

Housing markets move in cycles.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

How can you be 'foreign' if you are born in the UK? If you are born in the UK you are british. That is why they give you a passport.

I think he meant immigrants who were foreign born, that`s how I read it.

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The trends identified by the Skipton BS are old, old, old and even older news. Hundreds of books have already been written about them as well as the shift in the patterns of life that characterised the post-war period. They are commonplace assumptions of policy all over the western world. I know Skipton is out in the wilds a bit surely it doesn't take twenty years for the message to arrive there!

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"in the future people will spend more of their life out of, rather than in, work."

Then either house prices are going to totally collapse, or the pound is going to totally collapse to keep prices stable in pound terms. You can't pay 7x your annual income to buy a house if you're going to be out of work for half your life.

£30,000 average for a FTB. What the feck are these people buying!!!!

Assuming a 10% deposit, you can't buy much worth having for 300k around here anymore.

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The trends identified by the Skipton BS are old, old, old and even older news. Hundreds of books have already been written about them as well as the shift in the patterns of life that characterised the post-war period. They are commonplace assumptions of policy all over the western world. I know Skipton is out in the wilds a bit surely it doesn't take twenty years for the message to arrive there!

Hmmm..Skipton about to make 100mil from their investment in Rightmove, they also have the largest home loan management company in the industry (who many of the usual suspects use to collect payments) and plenty of other biz below the line companies..they are very very sussed

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Hmmm..Skipton about to make 100mil from their investment in Rightmove, they also have the largest home loan management company in the industry (who many of the usual suspects use to collect payments) and plenty of other biz below the line companies..they are very very sussed

they also sold their sharedealing arm (Dealwise) in... wait for it... November 1999, after creaming off the best part of the bull run of the preceding five years. Canny indeed, and astute market timing. If Mr Goodfellow is calling a top by selling the stake in Rightmove, one would be wise to follow.

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How can you be 'foreign' if you are born in the UK? If you are born in the UK you are british. That is why they give you a passport.

Anyhow, you post is utter rubbish. I remember my freinds dad telling me in 1989/1990 that the only people who would be able to afford houses in 10 years time would be millionaires. He got that a bit wrong........but it was popular hype at the time.

Housing markets move in cycles.

My son was born in Germany - he's not German and will never be German even if we go back to live there, passport or no passport. You are what you are.

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they also sold their sharedealing arm (Dealwise) in... wait for it... November 1999, after creaming off the best part of the bull run of the preceding five years. Canny indeed, and astute market timing. If Mr Goodfellow is calling a top by selling the stake in Rightmove, one would be wise to follow.

Sjit dealwise, forgot about that one!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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