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mustrum_ridcully

"house Price Inflation Speeds Up"

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According to the BBC press release regurgitator, sorry news website, house price inflation has speeded up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4800872.stm

Add that to factory gate inflation, increase in fuel bills and everyone else (well those that matter) increasing IRs, I think it's fair to say the next move is going to be up. Merv. will now be fairly sure they've not managed to stop the beast of HPI - looks like they shouldn't of cut rates back in August.

Edited by mustrum_ridcully

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According to the BBC press release regurgitator, sorry news website, house price inflation has speeded up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4800872.stm

Add that to factory gate inflation, increase in fuel bills and everyone else (well those that matter) increasing IRs, I think it's fair to say the next move is going to be up. Merv. will now be fairly sure they've not managed to stop the beast of HPI - looks like they shouldn't of cut rates back in August.

And let us not forget who is Gordon's new financial advisor? Mr. Anti-inflation himself: Al Greenbubbles.

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According to the BBC press release regurgitator, sorry news website, house price inflation has speeded up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4800872.stm

Add that to factory gate inflation, increase in fuel bills and everyone else (well those that matter) increasing IRs, I think it's fair to say the next move is going to be up. Merv. will now be fairly sure they've not managed to stop the beast of HPI - looks like they shouldn't of cut rates back in August.

Hi

Except they don't target HPI, they target the CPI which has fallen from 2.4% when they cut, to 1.9% now. And even at current interest rates, it's only expected to be around this level for the next two years.

Why the hell would they want to raise rates and push it below target

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IR's are set for a hike over the next few months (From the blog)

"A second successive month of rising factory gate prices has heightened the threat of consumer price inflation, all but eliminating the prospect of lower interest rates in the coming months."

"Manufactures’ input prices are 15 per cent higher than they were a year ago but output prices have risen by just 2.9 per cent."

Edited by Johnny

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IR's are set for a hike over the next few months (From the blog)

"A second successive month of rising factory gate prices has heightened the threat of consumer price inflation, all but eliminating the prospect of lower interest rates in the coming months."

"Manufactures’ input prices are 15 per cent higher than they were a year ago but output prices have risen by just 2.9 per cent."

Hi

Nowhere does it say that IR are set for a hike over the next few months, all it is saying is the chances of a cut have been reduced.

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Hi

Nowhere does it say that IR are set for a hike over the next few months, all it is saying is the chances of a cut have been reduced.

you're sounding a bit desperate over this topic. taken on a big mortgage recently by any chance ? <_<

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you're sounding a bit desperate over this topic. taken on a big mortgage recently by any chance ? <_<

Hi

Ahh because I'm pointing out that what is being said is factually incorrect (Check the market rates if you think anyone is pricing in guranteed rises in the future), and then obviously only reason I can be pointing this out is because of my interest.

Strange old world it is here

Check out swap rates here

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=228&a=1451

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kingofnowhere

Short sterling rates are at or near chart support. Next big move could be decisive.

Those BBA figs are so volatile it is not easy to get any indication of trend - especially with so few sample points.

I just don't see how there is any chance of sustainable lower rates when the rest of the world are raising, none whatsoever.

Edited by OnlyMe

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That's 4 things piling the pressure on for a raise in IR:

  1. HPI takes off again (if you beleive it) - yes I know this isn't what the MPC target but I'm pretty sure they don't completely ignore it
  2. Inflation up at the factory gate despite lower raw material prices. Up even more when the pound starts sinking
  3. "Economy back on track" - yeah right, but if you beleive inflation is only 2% then you'll beleive this!
  4. The end of cheap money from Japan that has been subsidising loose money around the world for over 10 years

Bring it on. Would be nice to see my £100K of (not borrowed) deposit getting the interest it deserved (if I was mad enough to leave it all in a UK bank account) ready to snap up some bargains next year

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so could this be the terrible bind that the VIs will now find themselves in?

that if they continue to overstate HPI, they will lend additional pressure to raise IRs, thereby undoing the "soft landing" purely by talking it up?

or they give a more accurate picture of HPI, which means that the market continues to flag regardless of IRs

ah, the beauty of markets - they can't be fooled!

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This forum is going to lose all credibility if it continues to ignore figures that do not fit its case.

I think prices are going to go down however I was not pleased to see these figures from the ODPM. They are bad news.

And if you are going to argue that house price rises are good because they will possibly make interest rates go up then you remind me of my friend who hated Bobby Robson when he was England manager and my friend did not want us to win the 1990 World Cup because Bobby Robson would have kept his job.

OK the mortgage providers etc make the media biased towards the view that house prices will continue to rise. This forum is just as biased in its view that prices will definitely fall.

Does anyone know any forums that provide a balanced view? If so I'd like to join it.

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Guest Winners and Losers

This forum is going to lose all credibility if it continues to ignore figures that do not fit its case.

I think prices are going to go down however I was not pleased to see these figures from the ODPM. They are bad news.

And if you are going to argue that house price rises are good because they will possibly make interest rates go up then you remind me of my friend who hated Bobby Robson when he was England manager and my friend did not want us to win the 1990 World Cup because Bobby Robson would have kept his job.

OK the mortgage providers etc make the media biased towards the view that house prices will continue to rise. This forum is just as biased in its view that prices will definitely fall.

Does anyone know any forums that provide a balanced view? If so I'd like to join it.

Oh boy, only your 2nd post!

What do you think to that WAP? ;)

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This forum is going to lose all credibility if it continues to ignore figures that do not fit its case.

I think prices are going to go down however I was not pleased to see these figures from the ODPM. They are bad news.

And if you are going to argue that house price rises are good because they will possibly make interest rates go up then you remind me of my friend who hated Bobby Robson when he was England manager and my friend did not want us to win the 1990 World Cup because Bobby Robson would have kept his job.

OK the mortgage providers etc make the media biased towards the view that house prices will continue to rise. This forum is just as biased in its view that prices will definitely fall.

Does anyone know any forums that provide a balanced view? If so I'd like to join it.

your friend wasn't called Chris Waddle was he?

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Guest Winners and Losers

your friend wasn't called Chris Waddle was he?

Bait, cast, reel. ;)

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According to the BBC press release regurgitator, sorry news website, house price inflation has speeded up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4800872.stm

Add that to factory gate inflation, increase in fuel bills and everyone else (well those that matter) increasing IRs, I think it's fair to say the next move is going to be up. Merv. will now be fairly sure they've not managed to stop the beast of HPI - looks like they shouldn't of cut rates back in August.

As KON said, the BOE don't target asset inflation, they target consumer inflation.

This housing crash is going to take a long time, get yourself a decent rental property, and invest your money in better opportunities outside the UK.

Watch unemployment continue to rise, and the economy continue to slide.

It's all going to take time.

Edited by BandWagon

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Guest Winners and Losers

As opposed to the HousePriceBoomForThreeYears forum.

(Which also started in 2003...)

Link? Thought not.

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Link? Thought not.

Sorry, I should have been clearer. The HousePriceBoomForThreeYears forum not an online forum.

It's out there in the real world and is open to the public. You can join in at dinner parties or down the pub or in the office canteen.

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This forum is going to lose all credibility if it continues to ignore figures that do not fit its case.

Well since it the capitalist cycle, not a message board, that is going to screw HPI I don't see how that matters!

I think prices are going to go down however I was not pleased to see these figures from the ODPM. They are bad news.

And if you are going to argue that house price rises are good because they will possibly make interest rates go up then you remind me of my friend who hated Bobby Robson when he was England manager and my friend did not want us to win the 1990 World Cup because Bobby Robson would have kept his job.

The fact is, the BOE responds to changes in the economic "weather" and sets interest rates accordingly. It a bit like setting the thermostat on the central heating. Very crunchy and basic and the thermostat settings aren't that finely turned, so its a bit hard to judge - remarkably often they overheat or over-cool different parts of the economy by accident (they even use this language if you listen for it). Basically what would be good is if an over-reaction to further House price boiling led to a tightening of the money to the point that the whole thing cooled very quickly.

OK the mortgage providers etc make the media biased towards the view that house prices will continue to rise. This forum is just as biased in its view that prices will definitely fall.

Not heard of TTRTR? He's a legend B)

Does anyone know any forums that provide a balanced view? If so I'd like to join it.

:lol::lol::lol:

I could give you deep theory of polarity as a paradigm in western society... ahh, why bother?

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Even if CPI is low manufacturers cannot afford to keep absorbing the double digit price rises at the factory gate forever.

Either they'll go out of business or margins will shrink so much Crash Gordon won't be able to come round rattling his collection tin at taxation time in order to pay next month's wage bill for his army of civil servants

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What I found interesting is that nobody contested my view that this forum is biased in its view that prices will crash. Apparently being called housepricecrash means that you have to have a blinkered view that prices will crash and any evidence to the contrary (such as house price rises) is greeted as just more evidence that there will be a crash.

I thought one person might have contested my accusation of bias but there you go.

If ever you do make the mainstream press (eg if the RightMove story had got bigger) their management would have been able to rubbish your site due to its obvious bias. And they would have been right to do so. People seem perfectly happy to be biased and to be accused of bias.

Duh.

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What I found interesting is that nobody contested my view that this forum is biased in its view that prices will crash. Apparently being called housepricecrash means that you have to have a blinkered view that prices will crash and any evidence to the contrary (such as house price rises) is greeted as just more evidence that there will be a crash.

I thought one person might have contested my accusation of bias but there you go.

If ever you do make the mainstream press (eg if the RightMove story had got bigger) their management would have been able to rubbish your site due to its obvious bias. And they would have been right to do so. People seem perfectly happy to be biased and to be accused of bias.

Duh.

This really has been done to death. There are endless threads about non believers being excluded. That's the way. If it was my website I wouldn't want people arguing too much in case it had an impact and prevented the hype.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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