Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
undersupply

David Mc Williams

Recommended Posts

JP Morgan, the American banker, once famously said that ‘‘nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbour getting rich’’.

great quote

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As above.

I've said it before, Ireland will 'Go Japanese'. It is the inevitable outcome of our (the Irish) collective:

-lack of sophication when it comes to managing wealth, EVEN amongst the wealthy

-unusually strong herd mentality for a 'developed' nation

-historical baggage related to land ownership

-no social memory of damage caused by financial speculations

-no control over our interest rates

those are the top factors anyway.

The 'race against rates', another element I have depressingly predicted is in full swing. The market is now over-run with silly couples, clutching their 100% mortgage approvals, running to the nearest new development in the commuter counties.

Their will be carnage in Ireland, I cannot see a good outcome of all this. And I like many, won't be here to watch it unfold. Sad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The market in Ireland has entered its final manic stage (I’m seeing 20-25% y.o.y. inflation in a bellwether housing estate 20 miles from Dublin). However I doubt that 5% of the Irish population is aware of the impending day of reckoning. Not since the 1840’s has Ireland experienced such a reliance on one item of consumption, (then the humble spud). The blight that wiped out the monoculture in the Famine years was blamed on dank winds carrying the disease from America. The blight that wiped out the monoculture in the Tiger years will be blamed on dank economic winds carrying the disease from America. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The general reaction to articles such as this is "yeah, yeah, they've been saying that for years".

This is true of course. In the eyes of many, property bears in Ireland look extremely silly because, despite all their ranting, house prices have kept going up.

It's been going on for so long that there's a sort of air of invincibility around, much like the drunk driver who continues to take wheel because he has never yet been caught.

Edited by Flash

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ireland will not be like Japan it will be worse.

Yes, Ireland have seen it all before:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_potato_famine

The Great Famine or the Great Hunger (Irish: An Gorta Mór or An Drochshaol), known more commonly outside of Ireland as the Irish Potato Famine, is the name given to a famine in Ireland between 1845 and 1849. The Famine was at least fifty years in the making, due to the disastrous interaction of British economic policy, destructive farming methods, and the unfortunate appearance of "the Blight" —the potato fungus that almost instantly destroyed the primary food source for the majority population. The immediate after-effects of The Famine continued until 1851. The number of deaths is unrecorded, and various estimates suggest totals between 500,000 and more than one million in the five years from 1846. Some two million refugees are attributed to the Great Hunger (estimates vary), and much the same number of people emigrated to Great Britain, the United States, Canada, and Australia (see the Irish Diaspora).

The immediate effect on Ireland was devastating, and its long-term effects proved immense, permanently changing Irish culture and tradition. The Irish Potato Famine was the culmination of a social, biological, political and economic catastrophe, caused by both Irish and British factors, which would have sharp and lasting influences on the world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've said it before, Ireland will 'Go Japanese'. It is the inevitable outcome of our (the Irish) collective:

-lack of sophication when it comes to managing wealth, EVEN amongst the wealthy

-unusually strong herd mentality for a 'developed' nation

-historical baggage related to land ownership

-no social memory of damage caused by financial speculations

-no control over our interest rates

Ditto for Spain. People here are feeling the heat and rates are only just starting to rise. I predict that soon we will be having a contest for where the bubble is crashing hardest in Europe- Ireland or Spain...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An excellent article and very entertaining. My favourite bits:

"You feel sick. What’s with the effing Japanese dictionary, you over-achieving bollix?..."

"JP Morgan, the American banker, once famously said that ‘‘nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbour getting rich’’..."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What worries me is the fact Irish investors are right on the cliff edge, when it comes to the thousands of executive apartments/BTL boxes you see going up in various English provisional cities, the Irish seem to be the first in. It's the highly-leveraged off-plan inner-city apartments, what a heady mix, these chips will be the first to fall.

I worry for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What worries me is the fact Irish investors are right on the cliff edge, when it comes to the thousands of executive apartments/BTL boxes you see going up in various English provisional cities, the Irish seem to be the first in. It's the highly-leveraged off-plan inner-city apartments, what a heady mix, these chips will be the first to fall.

I worry for them.

why worry?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

why worry?

Same as the UK, lots of people who never bothered with property are going to get hit in any down turn and will end up clearing up some of the mess.

Ireland is even crazier, an unhealthy proportion of the economy and job growth is due to the construction sector, this is not the engine that originally drove the tiger economy, the former has usurped the latter yet nobody can see it. Even welcome investment is used to justify the property bubble "so Amazon are moving in, ahh, that's great, another €50,000 on house prices then!"

:(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Same as the UK, lots of people who never bothered with property are going to get hit in any down turn and will end up clearing up some of the mess.

Ireland is even crazier, an unhealthy proportion of the economy and job growth is due to the construction sector, this is not the engine that originally drove the tiger economy, the former has usurped the latter yet nobody can see it. Even welcome investment is used to justify the property bubble "so Amazon are moving in, ahh, that's great, another €50,000 on house prices then!"

:(

But am I bothered? No really, am I bothered? It is their own stupid, greedy fault.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But am I bothered? No really, am I bothered? It is their own stupid, greedy fault.

Their collective problems will be externalised on all of us. It's rather like both your neighbours deciding to torch their own homes just for shits and giggles, you may not be bothered for them but after a few gusts of wind you're going to be worried for your own sake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-historical baggage related to land ownership

Could you expand on this? Does it perhaps go back to the days of tenant farmers and absentee landlords?

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frigalista,

Look up "rent bubble" and Ireland for the answer.

Looks like the Irish have swapped absent English landlords for absent international bankers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.