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pagaman

We've Missed Something Guys.....

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I've just been arsing about with the Nationwide figures.

Get the from 1952 infaltion adjusted stuff.

Plot YOY change versus Date.

Sit back.

Open beer. ;)

I think we may want this on the main page.....

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I've just been arsing about with the Nationwide figures.

Get the from 1952 infaltion adjusted stuff.

Plot YOY change versus Date.

Sit back.

Open beer. ;)

I think we may want this on the main page.....

Can I speak for the lazy and innumerate amongst us and ask you to post it? <_<

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I've just been arsing about with the Nationwide figures.

Get the from 1952 infaltion adjusted stuff.

Plot YOY change versus Date.

Sit back.

Open beer. ;)

I think we may want this on the main page.....

Link?

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Can I speak for the lazy and innumerate amongst us and ask you to post it? <_<

:lol:

I don't mind lazy but I take offence at innumerate :D

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happiness is a graph called the US 10yr bond yield!!!!!!

MAJOR base!!!!....it's up up and away!!!!!!...yes that means interest rates are too!!!!!

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Yeah thats where you get the stats. Which I think we all know about.

However plot the YOY change against the date.

The effect is A LOT more dramatic!

I'll do it if I can work out how to make OO save a dam graph as an image file...

<must be the beer BTW>

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Something I've just noticed about that graph for the first time is just how similar the troughs of 77, 83 & 95 are. Totally unlike the peaks which became much much higher each time. Is it possible that the next trough could also be just a little higher than the previous ones? That would be incredible if it were to be the case. It would mean that the price of the average house will go down to 70K :)

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Something I've just noticed about that graph for the first time is just how similar the troughs of 77, 83 & 95 are. Totally unlike the peaks which became much much higher each time. Is it possible that the next trough could also be just a little higher than the previous ones? That would be incredible if it were to be the case. It would mean that the price of the average house will go down to 70K :)

Which is quite realistic when you think about it.

Average earnings being ~20K,

so a figure of 70K for an average house 3-3.5x earnings "hits home" (pun intended).... ;)

Which is quite realistic when you think about it.

Average earnings being ~20K,

so a figure of 70K for an average house 3-3.5x earnings "hits home" (pun intended).... ;)

My beer is now tasting even better:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=164131

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Something I've just noticed about that graph for the first time is just how similar the troughs of 77, 83 & 95 are. Totally unlike the peaks which became much much higher each time. Is it possible that the next trough could also be just a little higher than the previous ones? That would be incredible if it were to be the case. It would mean that the price of the average house will go down to 70K :)

The graph is adjusted for inflation!

Prices in the peaks previous to the last crash actually kept rising.

I think you can forget about average houses costing £70k again.

The graph is there to deliberately mislead new visitors to the site. (and Sine270)

It doesn't correctly reflect affordability as it doesn't have a correction for interest rates.

At the last peak in the graph IRs were as high as 15%. Today they are 4.5%.

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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But the chart shows if prices came back to the trend line then the average price would be £112K.

The chart clearly shows that prices overshoot on both the upside and downside. So perhaps £70k isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

Edited by objective

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Ok, here's the graph.

Nationwide inflation adjusted prices, YOY change against time.

What are we supposed to be looking for?

I'm having a whiskey, does that make any difference?

Nationwide_YOY_change.GIF

post-1529-1142117336.gif

Edited by BandWagon

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Yeah thats where you get the stats. Which I think we all know about.

However plot the YOY change against the date.

The effect is A LOT more dramatic!

I'll do it if I can work out how to make OO save a dam graph as an image file...

<must be the beer BTW>

OO? Is that anything like an Excel Output? If so, forget about trying to save objects, the quick and dirty way is to click on the graph so that it picks up the entire graph rather than any of the individual objects Control+C then open "Paint" and click Control+V then save:

temp_graph.JPG

post-1892-1142117585.jpg

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Ok, here's the graph.

Nationwide inflation adjusted prices, YOY change against time.

What are we supposed to be looking for?

I'm having a whiskey, does that make any difference?

Hmm thats nothing like what I've got.

Just to confrim the last % YOY info is:

04 Q4 8133.2 £153,778 14.8

05 Q1 8150.6 £154,107 9.9

05 Q2 8401.6 £158,853 6.1

05 Q3 8408.7 £158,987 2.7

05 Q4 8395.9 £158,745 3.2

graph.JPG

post-3918-1142118524.jpg

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I have to admit to eating a whole tube of Pringles complete with shedloads of unspecified e-numbers :o , so can't really guarantee a whole lot of accuracy ... anyway, what are we supposed to be looking for?

r8bkw2.jpg

Edit: fix problem with tinypic.com hosting

Edited by spline

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I have to admit to eating a whole tube of Pringles complete with shedloads of unspecified e-numbers :o , so can't really guarantee a whole lot of accuracy ... anyway, what are we supposed to be looking for?

r8bkw2.jpg

On the graph I've just drawn, the YOY increase is heading south.

However its reallyheading south.

The only other times this has happend is when the markets crashed.....

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Hmm thats nothing like what I've got.

Just to confrim the last % YOY info is:

04 Q4 8133.2 £153,778 14.8

05 Q1 8150.6 £154,107 9.9

05 Q2 8401.6 £158,853 6.1

05 Q3 8408.7 £158,987 2.7

05 Q4 8395.9 £158,745 3.2

Ok.

If I look at your graph through the bottom of my empty whiskey glass, it looks a lot like my graph.

Does this mean I need more or less whiskey?

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Ok.

If I look at your graph through the bottom of my empty whiskey glass, it looks a lot like my graph.

Does this mean I need more or less whiskey?

Have more, I'm getting the next round in.

The real point is looking back, the only other times the YOY increase has fallen so dramatically is when there's a HPC underway.

Which seems to suggest to me anyway that the HPC has began.

I know people have been saying theres been an increase in sales, etc "There flying off the shelves".

But from the EAs I;ve spoken too (I'm FTB BTW)., they've all been saying its been the worst for 10yrs.

The accedontal (can't spell right now ;)) evidence is piling up, DIY shop closing in my high street.

Price reductions for flats I want to buy, a comment from a guy that I work with (along the lines off, a house sold near me, but it's just come back onto the market -- IE it never sold, it was just taken of the market,m and put back on at a lower price....)

Plus the problems at MSE, means that I think the markets beggining to go down in a serious way, where I live...

(SW london)..

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Have more, I'm getting the next round in.

The real point is looking back, the only other times the YOY increase has fallen so dramatically is when there's a HPC underway.

Which seems to suggest to me anyway that the HPC has began.

I know people have been saying theres been an increase in sales, etc "There flying off the shelves".

But from the EAs I;ve spoken too (I'm FTB BTW)., they've all been saying its been the worst for 10yrs.

The accedontal (can't spell right now ;)) evidence is piling up, DIY shop closing in my high street.

Price reductions for flats I want to buy, a comment from a guy that I work with (along the lines off, a house sold near me, but it's just come back onto the market -- IE it never sold, it was just taken of the market,m and put back on at a lower price....)

Plus the problems at MSE, means that I think the markets beggining to go down in a serious way, where I live...

(SW london)..

I think its going to be distorted for a couple of quarters by all the sales in the London Zone 1 perimetre. I have noticed that all the lower priced flats have been snapped up (as per reports of all those bonuses in the city) They are all studios/1 bd flats at the 160-250 range (oh so London) but there are lots of STCs I think will probably go through, so that is going to distort things considerably.

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... but there are lots of STCs I think will probably go through, so that is going to distort things considerably.

BTW If I was to offer today, I would be taking a guzundering approach to the market.

I would presume that would distort the STCs being reported....

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Have more, I'm getting the next round in.

The real point is looking back, the only other times the YOY increase has fallen so dramatically is when there's a HPC underway.

Which seems to suggest to me anyway that the HPC has began.

Shakerbabe has done a really good graph on this data, showing that every time price growth falls below 0 the housing market crashes.

We should have these on the graphs tab of this site (Webmaster!!!)

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The graph is adjusted for inflation!

Prices in the peaks previous to the last crash actually kept rising.

I think you can forget about average houses costing £70k again.

The graph is there to deliberately mislead new visitors to the site. (and Sine270)

It doesn't correctly reflect affordability as it doesn't have a correction for interest rates.

At the last peak in the graph IRs were as high as 15%. Today they are 4.5%.

Ahah....the old "affordability" chestnut.

Do we really need to go through this again? :lol:

Edited by geneer

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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