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Mooncat

Something Is Not Right

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:blink:

The thing I cannot understand no matter how hard I try (and this may well have been said before...apologies if this is the case) is how on earth do house prices STILL continue to go up (well, according to the Halifax anyway)???

We have levels of debt never seen before, energy bills are skyrocketing, repossession orders rising, bankruptcies and IVAs soaring.

Not being the most intelligent being (which I'm sure my posts demonstrate) I can't help but wonder 'am I missing something???'. I'm not suggesting in any way that house prices aren't going down (and, boy, do I pray they will) but there's got to be some way of explaining why the figures don't seem to add up. How come inflation is so low (isn't it something like 1.9%???) but most energy companies have raised the cost of gas and electricity by well over 10% and that's not even taking into account the rise in water and council tax bills...and the rest.

Our wages have not gone up in line with all the utility bill increases (and contrary to reports, wages in the NHS haven't gone up...maybe consultant's wages have but in the recent 'Agenda for Change' most other groups of staff such as nurses, technical and clerical staff actually went DOWN a grade and ended up LOSING money).

If so many families are now stretched to the limit, who is buying all the massively overpriced houses???

It just seems unbelievable that we have so many people struggling to pay their bills yet somehow everyone has money to help keep the housing market ticking along...

Surely something is not right!?!?!?

:huh:

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Retail spending has slowed down - people are saving on their retail therapy to redirect into the necessities of life. Let's be honest a lot of people waste money buying stuff they don't really need, people are cutting out the waste at the moment.

Houses for most are a must have, and most people (apart from those on here) consider them a safe bet, so they will go to the limit in order to afford their house.

When people stop eating out and stop going on holiday, then you can safely say there is serious trouble ahead.

At the moment the economy is ticking a long, with the exception of retail. A retail slowdown is probably a good thing for the long term, but it won't crash the economy at its current level.

Thats my take on it at the moment !

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Surely something is not right!?!?!?

:huh:

It's just taking time to unwind because of the low interest rate IMO. The energy bills will hit home (literally) shortly. Patience. ;)

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Not that you could of known Mooncat but i believe that avatar is used by a poster by the name of SarahBell, your going to start confusing charlie :)

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At the moment the economy is ticking a long, with the exception of retail. A retail slowdown is probably a good thing for the long term, but it won't crash the economy at its current level.

Thats my take on it at the moment !

Retail spending is two thirds of the British Economy.

Two thirds is in serious trouble but don't worry, the other third will hold us in good stead.

Can anyone remember what the other third is?

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Just after Christmas I could have sworn that I read something that said restaurant takings had dropped as a result of food sales going up as people entertained at home. Does anyone else recall seeing something like that? Am I reading a little too much into it?

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In the US house average house prices are set by the price they sold for. Asking price is never looked at for an offical figure.

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Just after Christmas I could have sworn that I read something that said restaurant takings had dropped as a result of food sales going up as people entertained at home. Does anyone else recall seeing something like that? Am I reading a little too much into it?

All I know is that I used to have to book a table at my favourite restaurant for a saturday night two weeks in advance. Now I can phone them an hour before and get a table. Its been like that for about a year now.

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In the US house average house prices are set by the price they sold for. Asking price is never looked at for an offical figure. [Karen]

And US published reports seem to (correctly) use the median rather than average house prices.

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Not that you could of known Mooncat but i believe that avatar is used by a poster by the name of SarahBell, your going to start confusing charlie :)

Ooh, we can't have that...it'll probably confuse me too (and that's not very hard to do)!!!

I've changed it now...thanks!!!

:D

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:blink:

The thing I cannot understand no matter how hard I try (and this may well have been said before...apologies if this is the case) is how on earth do house prices STILL continue to go up (well, according to the Halifax anyway)???

We have levels of debt never seen before, energy bills are skyrocketing, repossession orders rising, bankruptcies and IVAs soaring.

Not being the most intelligent being (which I'm sure my posts demonstrate) I can't help but wonder 'am I missing something???'. I'm not suggesting in any way that house prices aren't going down (and, boy, do I pray they will) but there's got to be some way of explaining why the figures don't seem to add up. How come inflation is so low (isn't it something like 1.9%???) but most energy companies have raised the cost of gas and electricity by well over 10% and that's not even taking into account the rise in water and council tax bills...and the rest.

Our wages have not gone up in line with all the utility bill increases (and contrary to reports, wages in the NHS haven't gone up...maybe consultant's wages have but in the recent 'Agenda for Change' most other groups of staff such as nurses, technical and clerical staff actually went DOWN a grade and ended up LOSING money).

If so many families are now stretched to the limit, who is buying all the massively overpriced houses???

It just seems unbelievable that we have so many people struggling to pay their bills yet somehow everyone has money to help keep the housing market ticking along...

Surely something is not right!?!?!?

:huh:

Interesting. At the this point in the economic cycle the mood amongst the crowd is typically that something is wrong but they don't know what it is.

I think what's wrong is that the system is overloaded with debt, accumulated from repeated bouts of easy credit, most staggeringly in the last few years. The debt has to be purged from the system, which means the credit squeeze that is currently developing will get tighter. At the moment credit is still cheap and easy, which is why house prices are still rising slowly. Cheap and easy credit is what Up North calls "affordability". In a way he is right - except it's not the houses that are affordable but, just about, the debt repayments. As access to debt is restricted and made more expensive fewer people will be able to borrow and those who have already borrowed will be struggling to pay up.

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Just after Christmas I could have sworn that I read something that said restaurant takings had dropped as a result of food sales going up as people entertained at home. Does anyone else recall seeing something like that? Am I reading a little too much into it?

When you start to see large supermarkets doing well, you know people have started to stop eating out and buying take-aways. One of the signs of a recession looming.

Save money cook your own meals, you can't beat home cooking ;)

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looking at the houses I would want to buy, the prices go down during the run up to christmas, and up during the run up to spring. Don t be dishearted if you check on rightmove and asking prices have gone up a couple of points. There are mini cycles throughtout the year.

You have to look at it overall. Theres still stuff I see unsold for one year. And prices arent rising 10% per annum (fortunately). We are in stagnation still (people are cutting back like hell to maintain this - how long can it go on for?)

Edited by notanewmember

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Don’t worry about it, what was we told a few weeks ago…………..

"It’s only the cost of living that is exceeding the cost of inflation".

Still trying to work that one out !!!!

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Interesting. At the this point in the economic cycle the mood amongst the crowd is typically that something is wrong but they don't know what it is.

I think what's wrong is that the system is overloaded with debt, accumulated from repeated bouts of easy credit, most staggeringly in the last few years. The debt has to be purged from the system, which means the credit squeeze that is currently developing will get tighter. At the moment credit is still cheap and easy, which is why house prices are still rising slowly. Cheap and easy credit is what Up North calls "affordability". In a way he is right - except it's not the houses that are affordable but, just about, the debt repayments. As access to debt is restricted and made more expensive fewer people will be able to borrow and those who have already borrowed will be struggling to pay up.

The way I like to think of buying a house without a fixed rate mortgage for the entire term, is that you're buying something, and at any time after the purchase, the price can be put up again without you having any choice but to pay the increased price. Hence arguments concerning "affordability" are suspect because we need to consider both present and future affordability of the same asset purchased now. No point buying a house if you're going to be repossessed in four years.

"affordability" is a croc. anyhow. Everybody needs to drink water, and in reality if the water companies decided to start putting the price of water up so that we paid £1 per litre, we'd still be able to afford it. We'd have to 'economise' a lot, stop having baths but wash ourselves from a bucket, wash clothes by hand, do without in other areas of our lives, but we could still afford it. But if water did rise in price that much, the government would step in and do something about it.

Billy Shears

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My take on all this is there is a general shortage of housing stock either for buyers/sellers or BTL/renting. I haven't seen any statistics that chart say the numbers of people in the UK against the number of homes but its my guess is that its at record highs.

These two things are major factors in keeping the price of properties and renting so high.

Its supply and demand - plenty people not enough housing.

Plenty people on this website point to debt levels and say that something on interst rates may trigger a HPC. That may be so, but I think that it will take a government initiative to free up land for developers/builders before prices start to tumble significantly (and even then it will take years as construction is a slow process). Any gov't that did this would be cutting itself off from heaps of home owning voters so its not going to happen.

Perhaps a tightening of immigration would have the same effect but thats more difficult what with Brussels.

I expect a steady slowdown in prices for another year then up again as Nu Lab changes PM.

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Listening to colleagues at work, a few of them have said how friends are trying to sell properties, and can't sell them, ie the prices are too high.

I am seeing many houses in nice parts of London that just won't sell.

Look through any newspaper, at the number of developers offering 5% cashback, 5% deposit paid, stamp duty paid etc.

These reflect quite dramatic falls over the last year, yet these places will still go through the land registry at full price.

The banks will wise up to this, they don't want to lend 90% on a property, only to find they're 100% exposed to default.

Or more specifically, the investor's who buy their mortgage-backed securities won't like it one bit.

Thy will start demanding higher interest rates to compensate for the risk.

The VI's never reported falling prices in the last crash, but REAL house prices are now falling in the UK.

I can understand the desperation, entire industries depend on sustaining this bubble, but they won't be able to sustain it forever.

Consumer spending is now falling away, this was the main prop that supported the whole malarky.

The BOE was hoping that other spending (goverment, corporation and exports) would take up the slack, but when consumers account for 70% of your economy, this was always going to be wishful thinking.

Consumers are now starting to save, which is a good thing, and will in future allow for investment that will help to create REAL wealth.

The unfortunate side effect of this is that demand is falling, and with falling demand comes higher unemployment. A recession to the man in the street.

It's just history repeating itself.

Edited by BandWagon

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:blink:

The thing I cannot understand no matter how hard I try (and this may well have been said before...apologies if this is the case) is how on earth do house prices STILL continue to go up

Moon its got a lot to do with low and steady interest rates and the rise of Interest Only mortgages.

Ive made these 2 points over and over again but most bears just dismiss them. Many here seem to over complicate the issue.

Thirdly we have no sudden economic jolt to have caused panick. Rises in the cost of living often rapidly accelerate, but in itself this isnt enough of a 'jolt'.

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:blink:

The thing I cannot understand no matter how hard I try (and this may well have been said before...apologies if this is the case) is how on earth do house prices STILL continue to go up (well, according to the Halifax anyway)???

We have levels of debt never seen before, energy bills are skyrocketing, repossession orders rising, bankruptcies and IVAs soaring.

Not being the most intelligent being (which I'm sure my posts demonstrate) I can't help but wonder 'am I missing something???'. I'm not suggesting in any way that house prices aren't going down (and, boy, do I pray they will) but there's got to be some way of explaining why the figures don't seem to add up. How come inflation is so low (isn't it something like 1.9%???) but most energy companies have raised the cost of gas and electricity by well over 10% and that's not even taking into account the rise in water and council tax bills...and the rest.

Our wages have not gone up in line with all the utility bill increases (and contrary to reports, wages in the NHS haven't gone up...maybe consultant's wages have but in the recent 'Agenda for Change' most other groups of staff such as nurses, technical and clerical staff actually went DOWN a grade and ended up LOSING money).

If so many families are now stretched to the limit, who is buying all the massively overpriced houses???

It just seems unbelievable that we have so many people struggling to pay their bills yet somehow everyone has money to help keep the housing market ticking along...

Surely something is not right!?!?!?

:huh:

Don't worry Mooncat -- you're on of millions in the same boat. Fact is - the VI's have really really piled on the spin to keep the whole thing going - that is - the World's Most Massive Pyramid Selling Scam - the "Housing Market". It will probably take years for it to all unravel/stagnate -- but it is a house of cards on sand - and the best thing to do is to stay RIGHT AWAY from the whole scam.... do NOT NOT buy property - it is going to sink - whether in 3 years or 10 years - it WILL NOT beable to keep gping... Perhaps something dramatic [oil prices, Iran going mad...] will bring it all down suddenly - but whatever - it is teetering on the edge of an abyss -- and the Vested Interests are TERRIFIED - hence there endless endless spin......

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Guest Winners and Losers

Listening to colleagues at work, a few of them have said how friends are trying to sell properties, and can't sell them, ie the prices are too high.

I am seeing many houses in nice parts of London that just won't sell.

Look through any newspaper, at the number of developers offering 5% cashback, 5% deposit paid, stamp duty paid etc.

These reflect quite dramatic falls over the last year, yet these places will still go through the land registry at full price.

The banks will wise up to this, they don't want to lend 90% on a property, only to find they're 100% exposed to default.

Or more specifically, the investor's who buy their mortgage-backed securities won't like it one bit.

Thy will start demanding higher interest rates to compensate for the risk.

The VI's never reported falling prices in the last crash, but REAL house prices are now falling in the UK.

I can understand the desperation, entire industries depend on sustaining this bubble, but they won't be able to sustain it forever.

Consumer spending is now falling away, this was the main prop that supported the whole malarky.

The BOE was hoping that other spending (goverment, corporation and exports) would take up the slack, but when consumers account for 70% of your economy, this was always going to be wishful thinking.

Consumers are now starting to save, which is a good thing, and will in future allow for investment that will help to create REAL wealth.

The unfortunate side effect of this is that demand is falling, and with falling demand comes higher unemployment. A recession to the man in the street.

It's just history repeating itself.

How is this one in my local paper. FTB's never fear! New build PLUS a 12 mth travel card so that you can buy in the middle of nowhere and still get to work. Now don't all rush at once!

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I've just seen the first HMO ad I have seen in years for a room for 40 pounds a week (admittedly in a pretty out of the way place, but its a big sign). I would have to disagree. Somethin' is very right. Its all bubbling away nicely.

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Retail spending is two thirds of the British Economy.

Two thirds is in serious trouble but don't worry, the other third will hold us in good stead.

Can anyone remember what the other third is?

Govt and corporate

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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