The Last Mugs?

[OzzMosiz]

I've heard a few conversations in the office of people (youngish) jumping onto the property market. I'm wondering if this is the time when the last of the "mugs" jump onto the ponzi scheme.

I'm thinking 2007 is going to be THE year of the crash!

[JBeau]

Personally, I think the crash has already begun. There are always buyers at any stage of the cycle. Good luck to them, they'll need it

[OzzMosiz]

Personally, I think the crash has already begun. There are always buyers at any stage of the cycle. Good luck to them, they'll need it

Yep you're right, but I mean could 2007 be so bad, that people actually will notice the crash then!!

[JBeau]

I don't think as many people will really notice this time, until of course the market completely bottoms out and the headlines are screaming "CRASH!". It's a bit like people questioning wether there will be a civil war in Iraq? Not a lot of honest news these days.

[Europa]

Personally, I think the crash has already begun.

And the positive YoY figures don't make you think otherwise?

I quite appreciate that a crash will be a slow, drawn out process, but some indiciation of falling prices would be a start. Aside from a minor blip, it hasn't happened.

Perhaps 2007 will be "the year". Just like 2005 and 2006 were supposed to be "the years".

[BillyShears]

And the positive YoY figures don't make you think otherwise?

I quite appreciate that a crash will be a slow, drawn out process, but some indiciation of falling prices would be a start. Aside from a minor blip, it hasn't happened.

Perhaps 2007 will be "the year". Just like 2005 and 2006 were supposed to be "the years".

Weren't there 15 months of so of price drops? Isn't the current rally much shorter than this? Isn't 2006 far from over yet? Have we got the land registry figures yet?

I'm not saying what is and isn't going to happen this year, but you seem to have made conclusions slightly firmer than the data seem to support.

Billy Shears

[john_d_uk]

And the positive YoY figures don't make you think otherwise?

I quite appreciate that a crash will be a slow, drawn out process, but some indiciation of falling prices would be a start. Aside from a minor blip, it hasn't happened.

Perhaps 2007 will be "the year". Just like 2005 and 2006 were supposed to be "the years".

I agree with Ozz, I think this year will see the end of the regions propping up the rest of the uk HPI figures.

Did anyone notice in the recent Halifax figures, that the Northern Ireland's annual inflation figure of about 17% was accompanied by only a 0.1% increase in Feb. Scotland is also dropping quickly, as is Wales.

What is currently happening, I believe is that the ripple effect of the bubble, which started in London is finally dropping in the extremities of the UK. These figures are currently skewing the English inflation statistics. Wiltshire HPI has been negative for the last 3 months (isn't that the definition of a recession?)

When these high 'ripple figures' are removed in the next few months, HPI will dive into negative for the UK as a whole, with perhaps London staying barely positive. Towards the end of 2006 and through 2007 we will see a situation as bad as the early 1990s, which may however, last longer due to continued low economic inflation not devaluing the debt people hold.

JD

[Scooter]

I've heard a few conversations in the office of people (youngish) jumping onto the property market. I'm wondering if this is the time when the last of the "mugs" jump onto the ponzi scheme.

I'm thinking 2007 is going to be THE year of the crash!

Isn't that what some people said in 2003, 2004 and 2005?

[Duplex]

An explanation for the London pickup, is it sustainable?

But here in London, even though the housing boom is supposed to have ended, it seems to have got a second wind. How can it be? Londoners face the same sort of financial pressures as Americans. They have borrowed freely - and spent even more freely - without any real increase in their incomes. How can they afford to buy London homes - already among the priciest in the world? The answer came to us last week: Londoners are not buying property at all.

People who do not live in the city - people who are mostly not even English - are doing the buying. In 2004, 25% of purchases in central London were made by foreigners. In 2005, that percentage rose to 40%.

Forigen Buyers

[eric pebble]

And the positive YoY figures don't make you think otherwise?

I quite appreciate that a crash will be a slow, drawn out process, but some indiciation of falling prices would be a start. Aside from a minor blip, it hasn't happened.

Perhaps 2007 will be "the year". Just like 2005 and 2006 were supposed to be "the years".

It definitley HAS -- "prices" have gone down significantly since 2004 - I've seen many drops like £850k to £550k - still not sold - and loads of places put on "market" for £250-300k in Summer 2004 are now still on market for £189-218k........... It is total bullsh@t that prices have just conntinued upwards....... yes they've gone up since last week maybe - but they are HUGELY down in many cases since the height of the "boom" c Summer 2004.

[Europa]

It definitley HAS -- "prices" have gone down significantly since 2004 - I've seen many drops like £850k to £550k - still not sold - and loads of places put on "market" for £250-300k in Summer 2004 are now still on market for £189-218k........... It is total bullsh@t that prices have just conntinued upwards....... yes they've gone up since last week maybe - but they are HUGELY down in many cases since the height of the "boom" c Summer 2004.

I think there are huge regional variations, and asking prices in some areas did overshoot. But the prices achieved generally have shown growth since 2004 (albeit at a slower rate). All the main surveys showed growth in 2005 (even allowing for boom patches such as NI and Scotland).

My area (South London) is showing strong activity.

[Shamus]

This is the calm before the storm...

Yes there does seem to be a lot of interest about. I live in a rented flat which is for sale. Fell through once already. I'm not convinced tha one of these viewers is necessary going to go for it just yet. I think more reductions will be required in order to sell it. It has a short lease and expensive charges against it!

this is the calm before the storm!!

Spring is in the air. Days are getting longer. Tempting mortgage offers abound to tempt the last sucker in!!

Then the world cup will divert peoples attention away from moving home.

Come the autumn we will be back to falling house prices!!

<Edited>

PS - 20% HPI if England win the World Cup though

Edited March 11, 2006 by Shamus

[sammysnake]

no crash happening in my area..rather utter stagnation of the already hyperinflated property prices

Like an oil taker it takes a long time to turn around but its happening for sure.

Like viewing the truck in the Italian job at the edge of the cliff....just needs a little push

[Londoner]

Well if it isn't this year it will DEFINITELY be 2007, and if it isn't 2007 then it will DEFINITELY DEFINITELY be 2008, but if it isn't then it DEFINITELY DEFINITELY ABSOLUTELY HAS TO BE 2009 or possibly 2010.

Right, follks?

[bob2]

Spring is in the air. Days are getting longer. Tempting mortgage offers abound to tempt the last sucker in!!

The world cup will slow down things and before long the summer will be over and the winter nights will be drawing in!!

Err..so in other words. It's the end of winter, soon it'll will be spring, then summer - and then surprisingly enough it'll be winter again.

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

As a picture can say a thousand words...

See that Dead cat bounce? followed by the Slip?

Or will there be a second dead cat bounce?

Or a Plateau?

Or a slide?

Upto yourself to decide

Whichever you choose, its a gamble

But my Money's on the slide

[Fancypants]

An explanation for the London pickup, is it sustainable?

Forigen Buyers

that would certainly support my own observations about the people buying round here (Canary Wharf).

[stormy]

Well if it isn't this year it will DEFINITELY be 2007, and if it isn't 2007 then it will DEFINITELY DEFINITELY be 2008, but if it isn't then it DEFINITELY DEFINITELY ABSOLUTELY HAS TO BE 2009 or possibly 2010.

Right, follks?

Hehehehe... I like it. To be fair I think since I bought my house in December 2005 prices have dropped a little in my area Brough, East Yorks (even though the figures seem to claim otherwise), but houses are still shifting really well. The only ones which don't are either shite holes or really, really, overpriced.

I don't see it stagnating near me just yet, and I hope that continues. Hell, I don't even need HPI. I sank a lot of cash into my house deposit and don't want to see it all crash away, but I will be ok with modest drops. Besides my mortgage on my 2 Bedroom house of £420 (3 year fix at 4.59%) is not too bad, and I am overpaying all the time to keep my interest coming down while I can afford it. (We are not all mortgaged to the hilt, with interest only mortages like a lot of the scare mongers on here make out, I really wish this site was a bit more balanced).

Mike

[Guest Winners and Losers]

I was one of the last mugs in Australia. NOBODY saw it coming, i.e. Joe Public. All I can say is, if this is a global situation, don't count ya chickens.

[winkie]

Home owners can think whatever they want about the value of their homes...Most over estimate the true value.

When they decide to put their homes on the market, it will soon hit them that what they thought it was worth and what someone is perpared to pay for it is quite different.

What do they do if they don't get offered the make believe price they are led to believe it is worth?

- Do a bit of D.I.Y. that wouldn't make alot of difference.

- Blame the estate agent and change it.

- Blame the time of year, not the right time to sell.

- Take it off the market, and bury their head in the sand. When they pull it out again they might wish they had accepted that offer the last time they wanted to sell.

[Guest Winners and Losers]

Home owners can think whatever they want about the value of their homes...Most over estimate the true value.

When they decide to put their homes on the market, it will soon hit them that what they thought it was worth and what someone is perpared to pay for it is quite different.

What do they do if they don't get offered the make believe price they are led to believe it is worth?

- Do a bit of D.I.Y. that wouldn't make alot of difference.

- Blame the estate agent and change it.

- Blame the time of year, not the right time to sell.

- Take it off the market, and bury their head in the sand. When they pull it out again they might wish they had accepted that offer the last time they wanted to sell.

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Welcome to my world.

[Time Will Tell]

Well if it isn't this year it will DEFINITELY be 2007, and if it isn't 2007 then it will DEFINITELY DEFINITELY be 2008, but if it isn't then it DEFINITELY DEFINITELY ABSOLUTELY HAS TO BE 2009 or possibly 2010.

Right, follks?

As far am I am concerned the big C word isn't going to happen. I wish it had done, all the pointers were there, but it hasn't. I'm just as fogged off as everyone else. You have to hand it to the Govenment, BOE, ES's & VI's & BTL muppets, they have sown us up like a kipper.

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

As far am I am concerned the big C word isn't going to happen. I wish it had done, all the pointers were there, but it hasn't. I'm just as fogged off as everyone else. You have to hand it to the Govenment, BOE, ES's & VI's & BTL muppets, they have sown us up like a kipper.

I agree,

There will be no House Price Crash, it will Plateau

[stormy]

I agree,

There will be no House Price Crash, it will Plateau

I hope so

[Take me to the cleaners]

I hope so

Every time I see a sold sign I think to myself "another sucker spending money they cannot afford to buy a house they don't want to live in".....it will all end in tears.

Personally I would prefer to have a disposable income and at least attempt to keep the economy afloat rather than help the banks build up their profits.

By the way, I have recently signed up for Jeevansathi.com and I am about to get married. I always knew HPC.co.uk could be useful for me some day.