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long term property fundamentals.


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a growing population.

i think this is relevant not just to penions via sipps but to the regular investor and even more so to the owner occupier. that is why i have started a new thread on it ZZ.

i will address your opinions (as they can't be classed as facts, i could have sworn i asked you for some facts to back up your stance, but you bluntly go on with your opinion) one by one, and unlike you throw some facts into the equation........

No, it is growing NOW, because of immigration. If we had had no immigration the population would be decreasing by now.

lets look at the last 8 years increase in population excluding immigrants .......

rounded up/down to nearest thousand

2003= 84,000 increase

2002= 63,000

2001=65,000

2000=61,000

1999=76,000

1998= 100,000

1997=102,000

1996=77,000

i think you get the picture. amazing how facts can counteract an opinion is'nt it?

Yes, the Baby-boomer's lives are being stretched by medicine and surgery; however, you can only stretch a bit of elastic so far before it snaps and in 20 years time the Baby-boomers will be 80, by which time almost 60% of the men of that generation will be dead. Women are longer-lived.

This stretching is not maxed out, and the average death age is set to incease to 81, for men from the present 76.2 years by the year 2031.

Yeah, as I said, it's not that people have stopped reproducing altogether, but that even at double the present rate of reproduction all the babies that will be born will not be enough to make up for all the Baby-boomers that will die, so the population will show a large NET decrease.

our poulation is set to increase to 65.7 million from approx 60 million now, by the year 2031 (sorce national statistics....link to folllow)

this is then set to peak @ 67 million by 2050 then gradually start to fall. that gives us all 45 years of good fundamentals for the HM then B)

please note the seperate official government links on this website........

http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.more.ukpoptable.html

can anyone (hand on heart) see our stringent planning permission keeping up with this? (bearing in mind things are getting stricter not more relaxed.)

regards BBB.

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"our poulation is set to increase to 65.7 million from approx 60 million now, by the year 2031 "

Wow, what an incredible increase, 3 million people over 30 years, incredible. Not. Canada, for example, has a population increase of 250,000 people PER YEAR, so in the timescale will have increased their population by 7.5 million, EXCLUDING organic population increase(ie native population reproduction). Bullish for Canadian property!

"lets look at the last 8 years increase in poulation excluding immigrants"

Yes, but what do they class as immigrants, have they exluded people coming in from the EU for example.

Also, are those figures the NET increase in population, ie increase in population minus number of out-migrants?

"This stretching is not maxed out"

Glad to learn that you are such a medical genius that you have an opinion on how much more can be done to increase lifespan. Oh, I forgot, you didn't even make it past A-levels, never mind medical school.

Deaths will increase markedly in the next few years as the huge post-war generation finally croaks(pace Charlie).

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ROFL :lol:

i think people would have far more respect for you if you acknowledged facts, instead of dogmatically ploughing on in the wrong direction.

i think this is one of the things that differentiates a hardened bull from a hardened bear. a hardened bull would put his hands up if he knew he was wrong, and act accordingly, a hardened bear would still continue with their negativism ad infinitum.

cheers BBB.

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Maybe I'm dense but I am not sure what this proves - the population is increasing and property supply is short so you can charge anything you want - any salary multiple you like and people will continue to buy them so property= safe bet?

So following this logic properts costs will keep increasing even though FTB can no longer afford them even at todays costs, BTL investors will continue to buy them even though they can barely cover their costs in most of the UK at todays prices.

Wages have pretty much stayed the same and in many industries even fallen over the last 5 years so cant see wages rising to meet this increasing cost of housing.

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BBB, any statistic/projection is only as good as the assumptions they make to produce it. Who is to say millions of UK citizens will look for the Good Life abroad? Even the broadsheets are now runnning articles saying the outwards movement of UK-born citizens is becoming a flood. Think of all the Brits who have bought property in France, Spain, the US, Italy, Greece, Cyprus...the trend is already there for all to see.

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Also, are those figures the NET increase in population, ie increase in population minus number of out-migrants?

yes they are totally net of immigrants. i can't believe you have just replied to me without clicking my link. the immigrant figures are 150,000 upwards P.A on top of the ''natural'' increase that i cite in my initial post. eg 2003's immigrant figure was 155,OOO on top of the figure i gave you ie 239,000 overall increase in population including im's.

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Maybe I'm dense but I am not sure what this proves - the population is increasing and property supply is short so you can charge anything you want - any salary multiple you like and people will continue to buy them so property= safe bet?

So following this logic properts costs will keep increasing even though FTB can no longer afford them even at todays costs, BTL investors will continue to buy them even though they can barely cover their costs in most of the UK at todays prices.

Wages have pretty much stayed the same and in many industries even fallen over the last 5 years so cant see wages rising to meet this increasing cost of housing.

i'm really looking at the long long term prospects WK. ZZ and DR BUBB, seemed to think the long term view was bearish, my figures prove otherwise.

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Who cares if it's natural or not, a loss is a loss! My point exactly, if you take away immigration, this country is actually losing population.

well the whole purpose of this was to show you that our natural population grows year on year. which i've done (and you still seem to deny) if you want to go off on a tangent then that is up to you.

either way our population has grown from 57.672 mill in 93 to 59.114 mill in 03, a substancial increase i'm sure you will agree, all these people have to live somewhere :D where will the next 2 million live? ;) they are on their way (both natural and otherwise)

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Not all bears are long-term bears. I am bearish for next few years but bullish after that. A lot of bears are similar i supsect.

i respect (and even understand that) YONMON. but some people seem intent on more or less making their own figures and stories up to suit, even for the long term, which i find slightly disturbing.

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3B, 120,000 British citizens emigrate to Australia and New Zealand every year. That wipes out your "natural increase" in one go.

as usual ZZ, these figures are made up. you make out you are a master of all knowledge , when in reality you know nothing............

firstly lets take australia.........

Major source countries

July 2001 to June 2002 settler arrivals, by country of birth New Zealand 15 663 17.6%

United Kingdom 8 749 9.8%

China 6 708 7.5%

South Africa 5 714 6.4%

India 5 091 5.7%

Indonesia 4 221 4.7%

Philippines 2 837 3.2%

Fed. Rep. Of Yugoslavia 2 082 2.3%

Sri Lanka 2 011 2.3%

Malaysia 1 939 2.2%

yes that does say 8,749 from the uk

source national stats for australia..........

.

http://www.immi.gov.au/facts/02key.htm

next lets take New Zealand..........

best link i can find is 1998 18,000 people were granted citizen ship 30% were british = 5,400

http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/w...11?OpenDocument

i know this is 98 but if you do your research ( ;) ) you will find that NZ has more stricter immigration laws now. nonetheless i'll let you have the 5,400.

so where are we at here?????

AUSTRALIA = 8749 immigrants from uk

NZ = 5,400 immigrants from uk

so that is a grand total of 14,149

120,000
.......LOL :rolleyes: LOL

You might wonder why i am kicking you while you are down? well i just want people on here to see what drivel you talk on a daily basis. which you speak and make up........ for why?......... so you can have your HPC?....... so you ''look'' knowledgable?

who knows?

only you i guess ;)

regards BBB.

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"what drivel you talk on a daily basis. "

BBB, at least I know when I am talking drivel. You, on the other hand, appear to be blissfully unaware..... :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

I can't believe you spent all that time combing throught the stats looking for a cheap comeback! :lol::lol::lol::lol: Let's see what other wild goose chase I can send you on! :)

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I can't believe you spent all that time combing throught the stats looking for a cheap comeback! :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:      Let's see what other wild goose chase I can send you on! :)

who says it was cheap? it was rather rich if you ask me (with facts that is ;) )

as for time. have you used google before?

no i thought not :lol:

re: goosechase. experience is everything. at least ''next time'' i can just shout ''********'' and you won't/can't be offended :D

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I think one huge issue people aren't talking about here is the changing demographic - our populous is getting older, some estimate 50% of the population will be retired in 20 years or so.

Surely when these people die all at once over a 15 year period, it's going to pour a hell of a lot of inherited equity into the market? Or do you think oversupply will dent prices?

Thoughts please...

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"Surely when these people die all at once over a 15 year period, it's going to pour a hell of a lot of inherited equity into the market?"

Or alternatively, it could put a huge hole in aggregate housing demand, and free up vast swathes of property that was up until then occupied by doddering old baby-boomers. I know which scenario I favour.

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The more people we have the more houses that get built. It is simple.

The boom we are in or at the end of was started by people wanting to make a quick buck. People were buying flats with £250pm mortgages and renting them out at £500pm. This pushed up prices. The next thing you know, hesitant FTB are pushed into buying by the media/parents/peers saying they will miss the boat. The same goes for "New Blood" BTL who have been told that they can also make a quick buck. But that isn't the case now. And FTB are priced out. That leaves no one left to buy property, bar the very fortunate few.

The richest people I know have never treated property as an investment, it has just been their home.

Even if the market stagnates, you will see prices becoming more affordable in the next five years.

I buy and sell Third Reich(Nazi) items to make some cash. I see it all the time. People used to pay £500 for an MP40, then isreal or some middle east country decommision thousands of them, the price dropped to £200. It is now back up to £2500 as they very rare now. I sold a medal last year for £51. I sold the same medal yesterday for £11 as every one has one for sale now.

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BBB

Your argument to justify high property prices because of rising population is based on the old fashioned and incorrect assumption that house prices are driven by the laws of supply and demand. The value of a house is not determined by supply and demand but by what a person is prepared to pay for the house and the psychology that drives house prices which is the direction in which house prices are going. Therefore, even if there were one hundred people chasing after a particular property it will come down to what a person is prepared to pay for the house that counts, not how many people want that house. If there are many people trying to buy a particular house then they may try to out bid one another causing the value of the house to rise but even then the value of the house depends on what a person is prepared to pay for it.

The high house prices that we see today is because people think that house prices will go one rising but there will eventually come a time when house prices have risen by so much that they cannot possibly rise any further and if house prices cannot rise any further then they do not stagnate or plateau at such high prices but will fall, and people will be reluctant to buy property when prices are falling which will cause demand for property to fall, causing house prices to fall even further and so on, resulting in a downward house price spiral.

The high house prices that we see today is a consequence of a boom. Bricks and mortar will soon turn out to be a millstone round peoples necks when house prices start falling. House prices will crash next year by 70%, after the May General Election.

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Goodness me Bruno, that really is terrible news. 70% you say? That would make my house worth less than the materials it is built from. Maybe after this time you and I should open up a scrapyard, then help people dismantle their homes to make more money off the bricks and roof trusses? Wouldn't that be great? Whole swathes of homes would be dismantled across the country because our economy could never sustain having houses for EVERYBODY! Heaven forbid...

Or are you suggesting (as per your website) that the lord will descend and cause a housing market crash to punish all us wicked and sinful property pros.

You really should have kept posting on SingingPig, you caused no end of amusement over there...

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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