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DICKDASTARDLY

Wake Up And Smell The Coffee

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage, and getting on with your life. What you are trying to do is second guess the UK economy for the next five years, thats a lot of waiting. In that time you could have had salary increases, prices could go up down or sideways, you will give yourselves nervous breakdowns carrying on like this. Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

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now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

Good luck Mr. Dastardly and I hope you enjoy the debt. <_<

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage, and getting on with your life. What you are trying to do is second guess the UK economy for the next five years, thats a lot of waiting. In that time you could have had salary increases, prices could go up down or sideways, you will give yourselves nervous breakdowns carrying on like this. Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

I'm paying a mortgage - without interest - by not buying? Who's the loser here?

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage, and getting on with your life. What you are trying to do is second guess the UK economy for the next five years, thats a lot of waiting. In that time you could have had salary increases, prices could go up down or sideways, you will give yourselves nervous breakdowns carrying on like this. Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

iTS A CYCLICAL MARKET.

and my caps were on..

what coffee was that?

its cyclical.. and I expected the crash last year.

It started last year..

not hard to see either.. ;) depends though.. on who you trust.....?? So you trust me?? what I say??

or the media?? which media??

i trust that houses are cheeper.

crash is here

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Because my next purchase is going to be for a potentially very expensive house I have calculated that a fall of 5% in house prices in my bracket would offset the cost of my rental over 5 years.

How likely is that?

Very as accepted offers are already down 10% since last year.

With pressure on interest rates to increase I'm minded to wait further.

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dick i think you said you are 37 - I am 27 - i ve got time to wait - I think you should probably buy if you ve never owned a home before/need to get on with life - waiting for a correction at the bottom is probably 3-4 years away. If you cant stomach it now, how can you stomach years of waiting? I can watch and enjoy the ride - 5-10% falls per annum are possible (which is the highest rate of fall during the 90s if I am correct Dr Bubb)

You need to look at the worst case scenario - if the house drops 20-30% can you take that hit?

Edited by notanewmember

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Because my next purchase is going to be for a potentially very expensive house I have calculated that a fall of 5% in house prices in my bracket would offset the cost of my rental over 5 years.

How likely is that?

Very as accepted offers are already down 10% since last year.

With pressure on interest rates to increase I'm minded to wait further.

But prices went up 5.5% yoy according to the Halifax. So if you had bought a year ago you would have been in the 'expensive house' for two more years of your life... (assuming you get your 5% fall next year which takes prices nearly back to square 1)

(you would have got a better fixed rate deal too assuming you are right about having to pay higher interest rates next year)

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage, and getting on with your life. What you are trying to do is second guess the UK economy for the next five years, thats a lot of waiting. In that time you could have had salary increases, prices could go up down or sideways, you will give yourselves nervous breakdowns carrying on like this. Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

Crashes begin slowly, almost like a slow motion movie, it takes on a surreal quality with denial and mad hatter tea party discourses from VIs, confusing reports on which way prices are going, and all the time the foundation is crumbling beneath the feet of the HPI bulls. Then, from hindsight, and ONLY from hindsight, do we see that there has been a crash. The Great Crash took 7 years to reach its final and terrible destination leaving the wreckage of the storm in its long and painful wake.

Anyone who buys in the second year of the crash will lose money. Remeber the Great Crash--1989-96--it took 7 years. We are in year 1 of the Magnificent Crash (2005-20??).

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Guest muttley

Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

Well,don't expect me to follow you.

I'm with uro-who.A small drop will make waiting well worthwhile.I won't wait for the bottom of the cycle though.

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Crashes begin slowly, almost like a slow motion movie, it takes on a surreal quality with denial and mad hatter tea party discourses from VIs, confusing reports on which way prices are going, and all the time the foundation is crumbling beneath the feet of the HPI bulls. Then, from hindsight, and ONLY from hindsight, do we see that there has been a crash. The Great Crash took 7 years to reach its final and terrible destination leaving the wreckage of the storm in its long and painful wake.

Anyone who buys in the second year of the crash will lose money. Remeber the Great Crash--1989-96--it took 7 years. We are in year 1 of the Magnificent Crash (2005-20??).

Or you could say we are in year 4 of the ever so gentle crash which never really amounted to much.

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Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month

I am in the Stratford area and the VIs say prices dropped 5% last year (IMHO its more like 10%). I am paying rent of 750 a month. Lets say I would buy a house for 250k. That 250k house dropped 5% or 12,500. How much have I saved a month?

House price depreciation = 1,041 a month. That is just like cash in the bank. When the market drops anotherf 10% this year I will be making a lot more--get the idea???

(as a STR the proceeds of sale from my last house is covering 90% of my rent so the benefit is even greater)

Or you could say we are in year 4 of the ever so gentle crash which never really amounted to much.

Not really. House price appreciation only stopped in 2005--rather suddenly I think. 1997-2004 were all pretty much up years.

Edited by Realistbear

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage, and getting on with your life. What you are trying to do is second guess the UK economy for the next five years, thats a lot of waiting. In that time you could have had salary increases, prices could go up down or sideways, you will give yourselves nervous breakdowns carrying on like this. Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

Hey, good for you :D ! Enjoy!!

I can't actually afford to buy (prices here are over 10x my graduate professional salary) so however much I would like to "grab that bull by the horns" I don't have much choice other than "waiting and waiting"!! :lol:

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Crash:

There is shortly coming a time when however much the bulls tell people to "buy a house"! it doesn't mean that they can afford to. You're running out of people to panic into buying. To lots of us it doesn't make gnat's worth of difference whether we're having nervous breakdowns or not - still not able to buy!! Hee hee.

:D

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Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month

I am in the Stratford area and the VIs say prices dropped 5% last year (IMHO its more like 10%). I am paying rent of 750 a month. Lets say I would buy a house for 250k. That 250k house dropped 5% or 12,500. How much have I saved a month?

House price depreciation = 1,041 a month. That is just like cash in the bank. When the market drops anotherf 10% this year I will be making a lot more--get the idea???

(as a STR the proceeds of sale from my last house is covering 90% of my rent so the benefit is even greater)

Don't forget to include the following in your STR calculation.

Selling fees, house moving fees, legal fees. Also rental deposit, and then there is a whole new set of moving fees, legal fees house moving fees and stamp duty on a £250k house to take into account when you buy back into the market. (got to be close to £15k all in)

Thene there is the stress of selling, and moving twice. (not to mention living in a rental, no pets no smoking no DIY plus other rules :( )

Can I ask, how much has the price of that £250k house changed since you STRd? Did you STR last year or earlier?

Is it really worth it? I considered STR as an OO and found it to be not worth the hassle.

Also if you owned that £250k house and decided not to STR a year(s) ago you would not have had to open your wallet at all in the last year(s)

As an STR You must be opening your wallet for plenty of people as you have had to dish out for Selling fees, house moving fees, legal fees. Also rental deposit, and then there is a whole new set of moving fees, legal fees house moving fees and stamp duty on a £250k house to take into account when you buy back into the market.

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage, and getting on with your life. What you are trying to do is second guess the UK economy for the next five years, thats a lot of waiting. In that time you could have had salary increases, prices could go up down or sideways, you will give yourselves nervous breakdowns carrying on like this. Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

DICKDASTARDLY if you are in a position to buy, and buying means so much to you - why the hell did you decide to wait in the first place?

Some people can't afford to buy even if they wanted to (i.e. ME). I can easily give examples where renting is cheaper, where lower paid workers have no chance of buying at todays prices - to me it clearly means houses are overpriced and due a fall. It's just unsustainable.

Good luck to you buying. Maybe you could keep us informed of what you see 'on the ground'!

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I sort of see Dick's point. I had a big arguement with my gf recently about not buying. She flipped out and said, 'give me evidence of when this crash is going to happen'. I said its not going to happen overnight and its going to happen when you least expect it...slowly.

But personally I STR in late 2002. Had I kept the house it would be worth about 25% more. Potentially offsetting any crash that may happen. So it will have to be a BIG crash to bring us back to pre 2002 prices.

It does make you wonder, is it really the right thing to do this STR lark when you see that prices in my area have gone up £20,000 since 2003

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Guest muttley

Don't forget to include the following in your STR calculation.

Selling fees, house moving fees, legal fees. Also rental deposit, and then there is a whole new set of moving fees, legal fees house moving fees and stamp duty on a £250k house to take into account when you buy back into the market. (got to be close to £15k all in)

Thene there is the stress of selling, and moving twice. (not to mention living in a rental, no pets no smoking no DIY plus other rules :( )

Can I ask, how much has the price of that £250k house changed since you STRd? Did you STR last year or earlier?

Is it really worth it? I considered STR as an OO and found it to be not worth the hassle.

Also if you owned that £250k house and decided not to STR a year(s) ago you would not have had to open your wallet at all in the last year(s)

As an STR You must be opening your wallet for plenty of people as you have had to dish out for Selling fees, house moving fees, legal fees. Also rental deposit, and then there is a whole new set of moving fees, legal fees house moving fees and stamp duty on a £250k house to take into account when you buy back into the market.

I think you'll find that most people who are classified as STR are people who were moving anyway,so all the costs you listed would have occured anyway.Things like stamp duty are less the less you finally pay.

As for this

no DIY

Some of us find it less stressful watching the LL fix a broken boiler than paying to do it ourselves.

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ?. Life is too short

It's hiding in a Cave in Afgahnistan...

Or in 1989, people saw that a crash hadn't happened (they tend to happen overnight these things), so they went out & bought a house

<Goof>

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"Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage"

You are joking are you not?

Even the village idiot is aware of the enormous inbalance that exists between actually paying off a mortgage and the outrageous amount in interest you have to pay on the average house price! :lol:

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As for this

Some of us find it less stressful watching the LL fix a broken boiler than paying to do it ourselves.

What if he/she's not very keen to fix your boiler straightaway? maybe he's on holiday? (kindly paid for by his tenants)

During the Winter?...

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What if he/she's not very keen to fix your boiler straightaway? maybe he's on holiday? (kindly paid for by his tenants)

During the Winter?...

You threaten to sue and don't pay rent for the duration. Then they seem to find someone available. Or in my previous case, I tell the university and they come running.

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You threaten to sue and don't pay rent for the duration. Then they seem to find someone available. Or in my previous case, I tell the university and they come running.

I can see you now, shaking the pen vigourously in the coldness of the front room. Your icy breath clearly visible as you curse the cold ink for not flowing as you attempt to write your letter of complaint...

(I think I'd rather fix my own boiler thanks...)

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I can see you now, shaking the pen vigourously in the coldness of the front room. Your icy breath clearly visible as you curse the cold ink for not flowing as you attempt to write your letter of complaint...

(I think I'd rather fix my own boiler thanks...)

Come on, be realistic. If you can't fix your own boiler what would you do? Get someone to fix it? What at 3am in the morning, when it's all cold?

If it is a serious problem you would get it fixed yourself then pass the charge onto the land lord. If they then fail to pay, take them to court. There is a lot of consumer protection for renters, so stop making our renting is such a bad deal!

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Predicitions of this mother of all crashes have been predicted for the last FIVE years, so where is it ? People on here will be waiting endlessly for this crash, in which time you could be paying off a mortgage, and getting on with your life. What you are trying to do is second guess the UK economy for the next five years, thats a lot of waiting. In that time you could have had salary increases, prices could go up down or sideways, you will give yourselves nervous breakdowns carrying on like this.

In response to this I'd just like to point out a few things...

1: Many people don't have a choice but to sit it out because their wages aimply aren't high enough to meet mortgage payments and living costs. I'm a good example. I can borrow £59,500 if I stick to the 3.5 times salary rule. But where I live the most basic of houses costs £120K so that would leave me to find a £60,500 deposit. I can probably raise £10K max and due to the high cost of living can't save more than £100 a month.. So you show me how I can grab the bull by the horns please! I could borrow a higher multiple but if interest rates went up (a probability) and utility bills rose further (a certainty) I would find myself out on the street quick sharp!

2: Crashes don't happen over night. Prices slip over years. There is evidence that this is already happening. Numerous properties in my area have been pulled and re-advertised at 10% or so less. You could only be led to believe that prices are still on the way up if you believe the VI spin that's published almost daily by the BBC and which is based on asking prices, not selling prices.

3: The claims about prices being supported by demand are based on a complete mistruth. If 1000 people want a house today and each have £100K to spend, but houses are all £150K, then there'll still be 1000 people wanting a house tomorrow because none of them could afford to buy. Tomorrow the EAs will argue that there is as much demand today as there was yesterday because there are still 1000 people wanting a house. They may even use it as an excuse to put prices up. But the demand is coming from people who need a house but can't afford one... and is therefore not being satisfied... and is therefore still there tomorrow... and is therefore creating an illusion which EAs use to justify continued high prices. The demand is not simply for houses, it's for affordable houses.

Please tell me the benefit of waiting any longer, while inflation eats awat at any savings, and you fork out rent month on month, I was just like you lot, waiting and waiting , now I am going to grab the bull by the horns, and put in as many low offers - 10% below and buy a house, and make it my home. Life is too short

I see no benefit in waiting either from a purely practical point of view. I am waiting because I have no choice in the matter. Whatever my income is at any given time I will calculate what I can afford to pay, based on that income and likely interest rate and utility bill rises, and make offers based on that amount. After prices have slipped a bit and my wage has grown a bit and when I happen upon someone who needs a sale badly enough, there will be a meeting of offer and price and I will buy a house.

I see all your points. I too sometimes wonder if it's ever going to happen, but you only have to look at historic situations to see that houses are more overpriced now than at any other time in history, so as painful as it is, I'm not going to commit financial suicide by rushing into something that I can stroll into much more easily in a while.

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"Many people don't have a choice but to sit it out "

one slight oversight is the Interest only mortgage - I was offered to "buy" a £180K new build even though I lied about saying i dont even have a deposit to fob them off! Well they said no deposit is fine. Absolutely financial suicide. If many people were to believe this then there is no such thing as "being priced out". You could move in tommorow.

Edited by notanewmember

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Our boiler broke down in our rented house on Boxing day this year, the LL had somebody out within 2 days, really couldn't have asked for any more but there is no way we would have had the money, so having saved and budgeted for Christmas and felt very proud of myself I would have had to get the plastic out to pay for house maintence.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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