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Mr_Sminty

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Times job section reports that business confidence is up to levels not seen since 2003 (little graph shows major and there is going to be a shortage of labour to fill vacancies. Also fairly bullish about further public vacancies increasing. Therefore UK econonmy likely to continue

Not sure if this was in yesterdays Telegrpah but economic analysis of how the retail and high street sector are undergoing major structural shifts that no amount of interest rates can postpone i.e. move to net shopping, expanision based on the back of debt spending.

Utilities, council tax and other such things now overtake mortgage costs each year for houseowners. Point to note here, affordiabilty arguments and even any comparison YOY via mortgage costs and interest payments do not necessarily provide a level basis to compare/predict house prices or analyse trends over time.

My take on the economy and HP at the moment is that, spending will continue to fall in the retail leading to continued steady increase in unemployment but nothing majorly destablising. UK still in bad habits though and will continue spending more than it earns, loans and credit cards etc pay for those must have luxurys such as holidays (we have been so good not spunking money on clothes lets reward ourselves!) and covering ever increasing bills. Bank continue chasing profits credit remains cheap for another 2 years (5% max) at which point, interest rates are going to have to go up as BOJ, FDR and ECB all raise rates during this period and global money supply tightens

Once GB is in No.10 taxes will go up, public liabilities will all become apparent, forced savings legislation pushed through, major cuts in UK spending, recession.

Meanwhile HP will increase or remain mildly positive, as people can not afford to sell at a discount if they are to clear debt and supply of houses people want (not pokey flats) not adequate for demand, with lending still favouring the brave (both banker and punter alike). Once we enter a recession banks will get nasty though and have to reintroduce aggressive repossession policies at which point we will see HPDeflation/crash

Exhausted credit supply and need to meet profit targets is what will cause any crash in the property market, and I think this will take a number of years to happen.

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Times job section reports that business confidence is up to levels not seen since 2003 (little graph shows major and there is going to be a shortage of labour to fill vacancies. Also fairly bullish about further public vacancies increasing.

Despite a trillion in pension liabilities and a 1billion NHS deficit, 300 jobs going at Hammersmith alone? Ah, wait a min , I think I see what they mean by new vacancies:

Health chief 'forced' to resign

Greater Manchester Hospital trust chairman resigns

There's a couple at least!

I also note today:

Myra Kinghorn (I shit you not), head of the Pension Protection Fund is to resign.

Edited by Sledgehead

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Oh like the 89 - 96 slowdown you mean?

:lol::lol::lol:

I spoke to a pub owner and LL today and he's selling his property. He had had a conversation with some business friend and were talking about stocks and shares being very high for little reason.

Anyway, his words were akin to 'there's something in the air'.

Point is he bought in '88 or ' 89 and immediately fell into negative equity. It took him 10 years to get his value back on the house.

He felt the '89 - '96 slowdown. I guess that's not going to be me or many on this site. Ahhhh

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Times job section reports that business confidence is up to levels not seen since 2003

Ah, so that's all right then (did you know that it was lack of business confidence that caused the 1929 crash?)

How does that song go again?

I have confidence in sunshine

I have confidence in rain

I have confidence that spring will come again

Besides which you see I have confidence in me

Strength doesn't lie in numbers

Strength doesn't lie in wealth

Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers

When you wake up, wake up!

It tells me all I trust I leave my heart to

All I trust becomes my own

I have confidence in confidence alone...

I have confidence in confidence alone!

Besides which you see I have confidence in me...

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Times job section reports that business confidence is up to levels not seen since 2003 (little graph shows major and there is going to be a shortage of labour to fill vacancies. Also fairly bullish about further public vacancies increasing. Therefore UK econonmy likely to continue

Not sure if this was in yesterdays Telegrpah but economic analysis of how the retail and high street sector are undergoing major structural shifts that no amount of interest rates can postpone i.e. move to net shopping, expanision based on the back of debt spending.

Utilities, council tax and other such things now overtake mortgage costs each year for houseowners. Point to note here, affordiabilty arguments and even any comparison YOY via mortgage costs and interest payments do not necessarily provide a level basis to compare/predict house prices or analyse trends over time.

My take on the economy and HP at the moment is that, spending will continue to fall in the retail leading to continued steady increase in unemployment but nothing majorly destablising. UK still in bad habits though and will continue spending more than it earns, loans and credit cards etc pay for those must have luxurys such as holidays (we have been so good not spunking money on clothes lets reward ourselves!) and covering ever increasing bills. Bank continue chasing profits credit remains cheap for another 2 years (5% max) at which point, interest rates are going to have to go up as BOJ, FDR and ECB all raise rates during this period and global money supply tightens

Once GB is in No.10 taxes will go up, public liabilities will all become apparent, forced savings legislation pushed through, major cuts in UK spending, recession.

Meanwhile HP will increase or remain mildly positive, as people can not afford to sell at a discount if they are to clear debt and supply of houses people want (not pokey flats) not adequate for demand, with lending still favouring the brave (both banker and punter alike). Once we enter a recession banks will get nasty though and have to reintroduce aggressive repossession policies at which point we will see HPDeflation/crash

Exhausted credit supply and need to meet profit targets is what will cause any crash in the property market, and I think this will take a number of years to happen.

Such a quick change from this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4715446.stm

Wednesday, 15 February 2006, 11:24 GMT

UK unemployment total rises again

The unemployment rate rose to 5.1%

The number of people out of work in the UK has risen further, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The number of unemployed people rose by 108,000 to 1.54 million between October and December, the ONS said.
That pushed the jobless rate up to 5.1% - the highest rate for three years
- from 4.8% in the previous quarter.

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Agree totally music man.

My point about the "slowdown" is that often we hear the words "crash" and it conjures up ideas that we're all going to wake up one day and houses will be 30% cheaper. This is then spun by various VI's "no crash has happened so it never will.... blah blah blah..."

So I really should amend my signature to "Correction acceleration during 2006 and beyond...."

;)

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Agree totally music man.

My point about the "slowdown" is that often we hear the words "crash" and it conjures up ideas that we're all going to wake up one day and houses will be 30% cheaper. This is then spun by various VI's "no crash has happened so it never will.... blah blah blah..."

So I really should amend my signature to "Correction acceleration during 2006 and beyond...."

;)

A 1% rise is a Housing Boom

A 1% fall is a Housing Boom after being spun.

A 30% fall would get reported as a soft landing.

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Despite a trillion in pension liabilities and a 1billion NHS deficit, 300 jobs going at Hammersmith alone? Ah, wait a min , I think I see what they mean by new vacancies:

Health chief 'forced' to resign

Greater Manchester Hospital trust chairman resigns

There's a couple at least!

I also note today:

Myra Kinghorn (I shit you not), head of the Pension Protection Fund is to resign.

Myra Kinghorn? Sounds like a Jewish plot to me! ;)

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A 1% rise is a Housing Boom

A 1% fall is a Housing Boom after being spun.

A 30% fall would get reported as a soft landing.

Disagree

A 1% rise is lies, spin, a conspiracy, innacurate figues. rubbish, nonsense.....................

A 1% fall is the crash underway, cause for celebration, endless threads about how it is all happening and we told you so.......................

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Disagree

A 1% rise is lies, spin, a conspiracy, innacurate figues. rubbish, nonsense.....................

A 1% fall is the crash underway, cause for celebration, endless threads about how it is all happening and we told you so.......................

On this site, yup.

But my post was what would be reported by the majority of the media.

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A 1% fall is the crash underway, cause for celebration, endless threads about how it is all happening and we told you so.......................

Nope a 1% rise reported by the VIs is likely to be a 0.3% rise rounded up

a 1% fall is likely to be a 5% fall (but the VI's will divide it by 5 to include N Ireland, Wales, Scotland, England oh and 1 for luck!)

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Guest prudence

Myra Kinghorn? Sounds like a Jewish plot to me! ;)

who are you? A clueless wasp..............

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Meanwhile HP will increase or remain mildly positive, as people can not afford to sell at a discount if they are to clear debt

Yep, as TTRTR puts it

No such thing as a "forced" seller.

There is a such a thing as a "forced" buyer

(they aim a gun at the buyers head & say"Buy this bedsit on a 20x wages mortgage, or die!")

Hence why prices cannot crash

B)

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Ah, so that's all right then (did you know that it was lack of business confidence that caused the 1929 crash?)

How does that song go again?

I have confidence in sunshine

I have confidence in rain

I have confidence that spring will come again

Besides which you see I have confidence in me

Strength doesn't lie in numbers

Strength doesn't lie in wealth

Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers

When you wake up, wake up!

It tells me all I trust I leave my heart to

All I trust becomes my own

I have confidence in confidence alone...

I have confidence in confidence alone!

Besides which you see I have confidence in me...

Just to clarify the point Im making in 2003-04 there was major lack of business confidence, at the same time interest rates began to rise, there has been no recession as feared. BUsiness confidence is now back up to early 2003 levels, its these people surveyed who will be hiring and investing in the economy not you or I, as such triggers such as economic collapse(a popular and hoped for prediction on here) are unlikely to happen over the next year or so and with that stagnation or even rises in HP will continue.

Im not arguing a toss over the true value of housing, as mentioned house ownership costs might be a better way of looking at the market than mortgage costs, but one shouldnt throw evidence out of the window as it doesnt fit with the crash story bears have sold themselves. Not to mention how silly one looks shouting about HP crash just around the corner every day, but all the surverys show otherwise and even unbiased economic inidcators dont back up arguements.

Currently business confidence has apparently risen rapidly, markets Ill also add are shifting away from share buybacks and extra dividends and lookign for investment and growth, both or which will lead to steady economic progress regardless of recession in high street. Steady economy means on the balance as seen in the past HP have more upside potential in the short term than downside risk

I still think HP are overvalued(just in case you all cast me out into the bullish waste lands!)but I cant see anything but a recession setting off a correction, which still might be a good year or more off.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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