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Cml March Report


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HOLA441

Latest market overview (March 2006)

The Bank of England expects growth to rise from 1.7% now to 3% or more in 2007. Consumer price inflation is expected to remain close to the 2% target. Growth would have to be somewhat slower for rates to be cut. Our view is that they will remain unchanged for the next few months at least.

The momentum behind mortgage approvals for house purchase continued into January, but there are preliminary signs that the upward trend might be drawing to an end. We expect housing market activity to moderate a little as the year progresses

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HOLA445

More weight to the soft landing continuing for a fair while yet.

Can't see where the HPC is coming from can you ?

"but there are preliminary signs that the upward trend might be drawing to an end. We expect housing market activity to moderate a little as the year progresses."

In other words, this recent influx of BTL money can't continue for long.

It's easy to see where the crash is coming from, FTB's have been all but replaced by BTL's. BTL's are losing money and won't put up with it for long once they see prices stagnating.

The BTL fad will pass quickly, once that happens where is the new money going to come from? With no new money coming into the market what happens next?

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HOLA446

More weight to the soft landing continuing for a fair while yet.

Can't see where the HPC is coming from can you ?

Yep, I can see exactly where it's coming from... that massive unsustainable property boom we just had.

Just can't say when exactly it'll become obvious prices are dropping in the lagging indicators.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble
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