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deano_54321

We'll Never Beat The Vi's. Im Doubting The Crash.

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Those of you who have read my posts will know that I get down from time to time and start doubting the crash. Unfortunately I'm in the negative mood again today, after hearing all day on radio and TV that house prices are on the up again.

Whether this is true or not, this kind of news will be giving people the idea that "they must buy now" or get left further behind. I am starting to lose interest in the subject as a whole at the moment (which I guess is a good thing!)

What im trying to say is the powers that be seem to be able to control the market how they want nowadays. If house prices fall, so will interest rates if house prices sneak up it will be all over the news etc etc. And we all know why. If house prices crash in the UK the economy is doomed so VI's will do everything they have to.

Im probably wrong, and sincerely hope i am wrong..... please tell me im wrong!?

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You're wrong!

Better now?

:lol:

Edit: That wasn't a pi$$ take mate. This stupid pyramid scheme has just about sucked out every possible pound it can. Stay patient and have faith! (Oh dear - I think HPC is going to turn in some kind of weird religious sect. I vote DogBox is the first to be "fixed")

Edited by Badlad1967

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You are wrong! VI's of any sort can only manipulate a market for so long before the market decides for itself where it wants to go. Currently the market is saying that it's not coming down, growth may not be the same as in previous years, but there doesn't seem to be any real evidence of falls.

(Former bear)

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I'm out of the UK now, and Jeez! It's never looked more certain to me! With a bit of perspective, the whole country looks like a giant festering boil, starting to suppurate. I'd stock up on house sized witch hazel if I was you.

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It's easy to see why you're doubting there'll be a crash. The government, the banks, the meedya, will do all they can to prevent one. However, that's not necessarily very much in the context of the global economy.

On the media side of things - yes, the media is full of VI spin and the least we can do is work, on an individual or collective basis, to counter it. Something many of us on here already appear to do! If you read some c*** in a newspaper - prepare your response, phone the editor, phone the journalist and have it out with them! Suggest angles/stories to 'friendly' journos also.

By the way everyone, I've just STR and now living back at home farm. if prices don't drop, though I'm sure they will, I can always relocate to Normandy, which has been a long-time ambition of mine anyway.

Cheers,

G

Ex-bear Golden Shower - and fellow bull - I'm still a bull in that I can't see falls really kicking in until late this year - 2007.

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Spin cannot magic money or buyers out of thin air, no doubt there are many people out there who actually want to buy and fall for all their bull$hit, even still they wouldn't be able to afford the repayments even with creative finance or low rates.

The ever higher the prices the greater the demand destruction, the spin may shake out a few more fools with money borrowed of family, buying with a stranger, shared ownership or whatever new scheme they come up with to scrape the barrel. However, it cannot sustain a market with real volumes at these price levels.

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It's easy to see why you're doubting there'll be a crash. The government, the banks, the meedya, will do all they can to prevent one. However, that's not necessarily very much in the context of the global economy.

On the media side of things - yes, the media is full of VI spin and the least we can do is work, on an individual or collective basis, to counter it. Something many of us on here already appear to do! If you read some c*** in a newspaper - prepare your response, phone the editor, phone the journalist and have it out with them! Suggest angles/stories to 'friendly' journos also.

By the way everyone, I've just STR and now living back at home farm. if prices don't drop, though I'm sure they will, I can always relocate to Normandy, which has been a long-time ambition of mine anyway.

In my case, I can see houses that I can afford to buy without destroying my life. Concentrating on my local area rather than the national figures, I can't see the evidence of prices floating up up and away. Here's a new property that came onto the market just a few days ago.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-612...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

It's a "town house" rather than being a semi like most houses round here. But it's about 15-25K cheaper than the semis even in the same road. I could buy this house and pay off the mortgage in 8 years or so. If prices go up a bit, it'll add a few years to the mortgage, but if they go down, which I believe more likely then I can get it cheaper or get something better for the same price.

Everyone's reacting to the new prices. Are the breakdowns available for different regions of the UK. Are prices rising again across the whole country, or are the figures being distorted by a few unrepresentative areas?

Billy Shears

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In my case, I can see houses that I can afford to buy without destroying my life. Concentrating on my local area rather than the national figures, I can't see the evidence of prices floating up up and away. Here's a new property that came onto the market just a few days ago.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-612...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

You could rent something much nicer for the same money without the downside risk, personally I wouldn't let anyone force your hand.

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In my case, I can see houses that I can afford to buy without destroying my life. Concentrating on my local area rather than the national figures, I can't see the evidence of prices floating up up and away. Here's a new property that came onto the market just a few days ago.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-612...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

It's a "town house" rather than being a semi like most houses round here. But it's about 15-25K cheaper than the semis even in the same road. I could buy this house and pay off the mortgage in 8 years or so. If prices go up a bit, it'll add a few years to the mortgage, but if they go down, which I believe more likely then I can get it cheaper or get something better for the same price.

Everyone's reacting to the new prices. Are the breakdowns available for different regions of the UK. Are prices rising again across the whole country, or are the figures being distorted by a few unrepresentative areas?

Billy Shears

Billy I`m struggling to understand your dilemma here, 15-25K cheaper than most therefore they are possibly discounting it in relation to market conditions, approx. 20% off a peak, v. affordable, within your budget, if it falls in value it can be measured in buttons if they`ve already discounted, (5 grandish)..buy it, simple really....

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Billy I`m struggling to understand your dilemma here, 15-25K cheaper than most therefore they are possibly discounting it in relation to market conditions, approx. 20% off a peak, v. affordable, within your budget, if it falls in value it can be measured in buttons if they`ve already discounted, (5 grandish)..buy it, simple really....

A box like that in Leicester would have sold for £50k max a couple of years ago.

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Whether this is true or not, this kind of news will be giving people the idea that "they must buy now" or get left further behind. I am starting to lose interest in the subject as a whole at the moment (which I guess is a good thing!)

What im trying to say is the powers that be seem to be able to control the market how they want nowadays. If house prices fall, so will interest rates if house prices sneak up it will be all over the news etc etc. And we all know why. If house prices crash in the UK the economy is doomed so VI's will do everything they have to.

Im probably wrong, and sincerely hope i am wrong..... please tell me im wrong!?

The vested interests had more power over the market in previous months than they do now.

You have to remember that in these days we do occasionally see an article that says houses are overpriced - a situation that was unthinkable only a short while ago!

There's nothing wrong with losing interest in the whole thing for a while, I do and I am sure lots of others do, since this is going to take some time there is actually little point in scrutinising the subject every single day.

The vested interests think they can control the market and so they persuade you that they can.

Actually, I think more people, more businesses are involved in belt tightening than ever before. More organisations are looking at how they will deal with 'bad debts'.

All of this essentially means that there are groups of people who probably do still believe that the credit bubble can be maintained indefinately by sheer hype and spin - but don't believe them because no one expects all of the people they lend to will default. The people doing the lending are actually just young people expected to meet a sales quota for lending loans and credit cards. The ones who lend are not the ones in a position to see just how many people are likely to default if there is the slightest change.

Someone else pointed out today that they felt that interest rates at just 5% could cause a huge shock to the market. I agree, things really are that precarious.

When people tell me that the market is too strong for a house price crash, I ask them if they are aware of the rate at which bankruptcies and repossessions are occurring.

Yes, they say but there are always stupid people and the economy is basically sound.

OK, I say but based on the fact that there are high levels of bankruptcies and repossessions and low unemployment and low interest rates - doesn't that indicate that lending is out of control, if even in a mild economic climate people can get themselves into so much financial trouble - credit cards debts of up to £100,000 etc.

That makes people think, believe it or not.

Unfortunately peoples' default position is the banks surely would not be stupid enough to lend what they couldn't get back?

Edited by underpressuretobuy

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Spin cannot magic money or buyers out of thin air, no doubt there are many people out there who actually want to buy and fall for all their bull$hit, even still they wouldn't be able to afford the repayments even with creative finance or low rates.

The ever higher the prices the greater the demand destruction, the spin may shake out a few more fools with money borrowed of family, buying with a stranger, shared ownership or whatever new scheme they come up with to scrape the barrel. However, it cannot sustain a market with real volumes at these price levels.

Perhaps the VIs think that the spin will scrape enough fools out of the bottom of the barrel to keep the market ticking over (in nominal terms) until the drip drip of wage inflation rescues the market.

The trouble is that there's also this big hole in the barrel called "failing sentiment", which has been leaking demand for a while. It's a bit dark in there so no-one knows how big the hole is.

Okay, that's about as far as I can go with that metaphor.

frugalista

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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