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I Know We Want To Ignore It But The Recession Trigger Looms

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http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/3/prweb355363.htm

Scientists discover bird flu virus one gene away from human to human transmission.
(PRWEB) March 8, 2006 --
Scientists have now verified through gene sequencing that the H5N1 virus has been rapidly mutating and evolving towards a strain that will be deadly for humans
.
Six months ago scientists estimated that the H5N1 virus needed to make about five changes to it’s gene structure for it to be deadly for humans. Now it requires only one last change.

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stor...587056.htm?Asia

The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has now been found in 20 European countries.
A Russian virus expert warns that a human pandemic is highly likely and has told his government to get ready.

http://www.kfmb.com/stories/story.41608.html

The World Health Organization called bird flu a greater global challenge than any previous infectious disease,
costing global agriculture more than $10 billion and affecting the livelihoods of 300 million farmers.
Poland reported its first outbreak of the disease, saying Monday that laboratory tests confirmed that two wild swans had died of the lethal strain.
Dr. Margaret Chan, who is spearheading WHO's efforts against bird flu, told disease experts meeting in Geneva to discuss bird flu preparations that the organization's top priority was to keep the deadly strain from mutating into a form easily passed between humans. That could trigger a global pandemic.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticl..._UK-BIRDFLU.xml

The United States and the European Union have backed the formation of what a senior U.S. official called an "
emergency operations centre
" at the FAO's Rome headquarters. The initiative was agreed at a meeting at the FAO requested by the United States and the EU.

Factor a pandemic into economic forecasts and HPI and what do you get?

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Strange that there has been nothing in the news of new cases.

I thought that after it hit Europe there would have been report after report

I don’t think it will mutate this year – as it has been around for a few years now (2 years?)

If house prices don’t crash of there own accord then lets see how a drop in the population of 10% affects it

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Strange that there has been nothing in the news of new cases.

I thought that after it hit Europe there would have been report after report

I don’t think it will mutate this year – as it has been around for a few years now (2 years?)

If house prices don’t crash of there own accord then lets see how a drop in the population of 10% affects it

Yes, ummm guys, perhaps the potential loss of millions of lives across the planet needs a bit more reflection/circumspection than rejoicing in the impact on house prices?

Edited by marko

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Strange that there has been nothing in the news of new cases.

I thought that after it hit Europe there would have been report after report

I don’t think it will mutate this year – as it has been around for a few years now (2 years?)

If house prices don’t crash of there own accord then lets see how a drop in the population of 10% affects it

Recent cases reported:

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews...th/14037098.htm

http://www.news-medical.net/?id=16448

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,18388294-38196,00.html

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My dad has got a garage full of tinned food and masks ready!!! One thing about being in rented is that we would give notice and move straight in with the parents!. Their house is on a remote hillside!!!!

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I met a recently retired scientist last week and had a discussion with him about bird flu. He is an ex colleague of the guy who is advising the government and says the advisor is blatantly scaremongering and has shares in the flu vaccine!

He also said in his opinion bird flu has been blown out of all proportion. Yes if it mutates people will die, which is obviously a scary prospect. But only the weakest in society will fall victim and in very few numbers.

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Yes, ummm guys, perhaps the potential loss of millions of lives across the planet needs a bit more reflection/circumspection than rejoicing in the impact on house prices?

I agree. As the sheeple rejoice in HPI there are far more seriousd things to be concerned about. If this thing does cross over to humans an adjustment in priorities will take place very quickly. For some, eternity awaits and we will not want to look back over our lives and say how we wished we had MEWed a little more to buy that 3rd home in Bulgaria or spent more time at the office. Might be a good time to examine what is really important. The coming HPC and possible pandemic may be a way of grabbing our attention to readjust our thinking?

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rejoicing in the impact on house prices?

I think my odd on surviving is pretty good –

The odds on a HPC without birdflu (in the next 3 years) are pretty bad

A few dead has got to be worth affordable housing

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He also said in his opinion bird flu has been blown out of all proportion. Yes if it mutates people will die, which is obviously a scary prospect. But only the weakest in society will fall victim and in very few numbers.

"if it mutates people will die" - People have already died, what people are concerned about is that MORE people might die if the virus mutates.

Ordinary influenza kills the weakest in society and in very few numbers.

His suggestion that no disease could be any worse than that - even though worse diseases HAVE been seen in living memory - is a bit complacent in my view.

It also suggests he is looking at the hype and not looking at how life on this planet works. New diseases are evolving all the time, some affect humans, some don't.

You can only say retrospectively whether the mutation of bird flu to a virus transmissable between humans has been blown out of all proportion. It hasn't happened yet so it is impossible to say.

Edited by underpressuretobuy

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Even if bird flu did not happen in this country but happened else were in the world – the effects would be massive – I hope that the government would stop travelling while they manufactured a vaccine. Which would solve the immigration problem – 500000 immigrants would not be able to enter the country.

Also how many jobs are actually related to birds in this country – there are many reasons that it will effect us without the need for anyone to die?

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heard it all before with aids, mad cow and gm foods....

bird flu might bump a few off, but i doubt its a catastrophic mass killer like the black death.

its all much ado about nothing. a storm in a tea cup.

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I met a recently retired scientist last week and had a discussion with him about bird flu. He is an ex colleague of the guy who is advising the government and says the advisor is blatantly scaremongering and has shares in the flu vaccine!

He also said in his opinion bird flu has been blown out of all proportion. Yes if it mutates people will die, which is obviously a scary prospect. But only the weakest in society will fall victim and in very few numbers.

this scientist friend must be a bit stupid

firstly its the most productive of society that will mainly die in a flu pandemic, this is the main worry about it.Its the active part of society that will be caught out.

second the numbers can be huge that die from it.more people died in ww1 from the flu pandemic than died from killing each other for no reason.

Edited by homeless

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I do have to point out that the article above is written by the guy who is trying to sell copies of his "Bird Flu Survival Guide" at the moment - so I think I have to say although he is usually careful only to repeat what others have already said, nevertheless he has a vested interest in people buying into the hype and then buying the book.

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Aitchoo!

We're all doomed anyway. Definately recession season as the bbc are about to report on competition in the high street from charity shops.

Just wait til tesco work out that charity shops are staffed by people who don't get paid!

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Guest muttley

heard it all before with aids, mad cow and gm foods....

bird flu might bump a few off, but i doubt its a catastrophic mass killer like the black death.

its all much ado about nothing. a storm in a tea cup.

You still got your Tamiflu fred?

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My dad has got a garage full of tinned food and masks ready!!! One thing about being in rented is that we would give notice and move straight in with the parents!. Their house is on a remote hillside!!!!

Don't think that will help you. In the 1918 pandemic, I believe only a few very small and very isolated islands escaped. Not everybody caught the flu, but no geographical area was able to escape.

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Yes, ummm guys, perhaps the potential loss of millions of lives across the planet needs a bit more reflection/circumspection than rejoicing in the impact on house prices?

Would that be on top of the millions dying from aids, goverment repression, would that be like the children through no fault of thier own dying from hunger, just think with a weeks pay you could feed loads of them children.

Oh we all say (including me) how wrong it is and then go and shove another cheese burger in our faces, the loss of millions of 'us' ? (because it is a us and them issue) I personally dont give a damn.

Everyone cares until they have to actually do something about it.

Hopefully my friends and family will be ok but the rest of ya? i personally dont give a damn, die tommorow and i wouldnt know let alone care about it.

I just wish people would stop pretending to give a f*ck about other people :-) (i mean more than just shaking your heads and saying its bad).

A decent pandemic will do us a world of good

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I met a recently retired scientist last week and had a discussion with him about bird flu. He is an ex colleague of the guy who is advising the government and says the advisor is blatantly scaremongering and has shares in the flu vaccine!

He also said in his opinion bird flu has been blown out of all proportion. Yes if it mutates people will die, which is obviously a scary prospect. But only the weakest in society will fall victim and in very few numbers.

Bird flu and para flu was my thing (see posts ad nauseam) before leaving science. Your info is correct regarding the risks, but the issue is not so much mutation, more resortment of the RNA chromosomes. Not sure how the sources quoted above could be so certain regarding how close the virus is getting to being able to spread human-human: the SAR understanding of avian flu and its replicative machinary is still pretty weak in parts so they must we working on pure homology. And as other posters have mentioned, what can you do if it does mutate? Tinned food and gauze masks won't help a bit so it would probably be best to ensure that you have a job with decent sick pay and stock up on vitamin C.

However, God knows how he has shares in the vaccine... there's no pure play stock exposed to bird flu except perhaps Biota, the Aussie company that developed Relenza then licensed it to GSK. Even Bavarian and Nordic and Acambis work on smallpox etc too.

Edited by aussieboy

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http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/3/prweb355363.htm

Scientists discover bird flu virus one gene away from human to human transmission.
(PRWEB) March 8, 2006 --
Scientists have now verified through gene sequencing that the H5N1 virus has been rapidly mutating and evolving towards a strain that will be deadly for humans
.
Six months ago scientists estimated that the H5N1 virus needed to make about five changes to it’s gene structure for it to be deadly for humans. Now it requires only one last change.

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stor...587056.htm?Asia

The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has now been found in 20 European countries.
A Russian virus expert warns that a human pandemic is highly likely and has told his government to get ready.

http://www.kfmb.com/stories/story.41608.html

The World Health Organization called bird flu a greater global challenge than any previous infectious disease,
costing global agriculture more than $10 billion and affecting the livelihoods of 300 million farmers.
Poland reported its first outbreak of the disease, saying Monday that laboratory tests confirmed that two wild swans had died of the lethal strain.
Dr. Margaret Chan, who is spearheading WHO's efforts against bird flu, told disease experts meeting in Geneva to discuss bird flu preparations that the organization's top priority was to keep the deadly strain from mutating into a form easily passed between humans. That could trigger a global pandemic.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticl..._UK-BIRDFLU.xml

The United States and the European Union have backed the formation of what a senior U.S. official called an "
emergency operations centre
" at the FAO's Rome headquarters. The initiative was agreed at a meeting at the FAO requested by the United States and the EU.

Factor a pandemic into economic forecasts and HPI and what do you get?

Quite frankly, if this happens, I couldn't give a hoot about HPI. This is very scary stuff.

I read recently that virologists seemed to believe that in mutating to become easily passed between humans, the flu would also reduce in lethality. At present, this flu has a fatality rate of something like 50%. The 1918 flu that everyone compares this to had a fatality rate of something like 2%. So unless the fatality rate drops a lot, this is going to be a lot worse than 1918 as far as I can see. Worse still, there doesn't seem to be any indication in these articles that the mutation that has brought it one step away from being easily passed between humans has reduced the lethality. Does anyone have any knowledge on this? Are the virologists being proved wrong, and is the ultimate nightmare scenario of a 50% fatal easily spread disease about to happen?

Edited by Levy process

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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