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camem'

Camem's Fudge Factor

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In all it's glory, here is a graph of the nationwide / halifax 'fudge factor'. Some say it gets larger when a crash is imminent.

This takes all the seasonally adjusted, mix adjusted, generally for the heck of it adjusted data from nationwide and halifax quarterly since 1983 (last point is Q4 2005). Normalises halifax to nationwide start and end points, then the yellow line is the fudge factor (the difference between them)

fudge.JPG

post-1731-1141776379.jpg

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In all it's glory, here is a graph of the nationwide / halifax 'fudge factor'. Some say it gets larger when a crash is imminent.

This takes all the seasonally adjusted, mix adjusted, generally for the heck of it adjusted data from nationwide and halifax quarterly since 1983 (last point is Q4 2005). Normalises halifax to nationwide start and end points, then the yellow line is the fudge factor (the difference between them)

fudge.JPG

Thanks for enlightenng me on 'fudge' :)

TB

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In all it's glory, here is a graph of the nationwide / halifax 'fudge factor'. Some say it gets larger when a crash is imminent.

This takes all the seasonally adjusted, mix adjusted, generally for the heck of it adjusted data from nationwide and halifax quarterly since 1983 (last point is Q4 2005). Normalises halifax to nationwide start and end points, then the yellow line is the fudge factor (the difference between them)

fudge.JPG

It may be interesting to calculate the fudge factor as a percentage of the reported value ather than actual value as you would expect larger differences to be associated with higher values.

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But, but, but ..... there's something wrong with your graph - it shows prices still going up - that can't be true - I'm told on here prices are crashing ..........

But then again, welcome to the real world. Good graph, cos its honest - well as honest as you can get in these strange times we live in !

:)

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The graph does begin to show some stalling at the top of the peak. And WOW, what a peak it is. Has anyone seen such a tall and steep mountain, and such a rapid ascent! I wonder what the descent will look like? Assuming of course, the economic cycle hasn't been cancelled by Gordon's "miracle economy!"

Time to move into cash.

Edited by Realistbear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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