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I Told You So

Uk Retail Sales Growth Picks Up In Feb - Brc

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http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/f...TAIN-RETAIL.XML

Oh dear, oh dear retail spending isn't on its knees after all, what will the BoE do next?

Short sterling now showing a defiinite rise in rates Dec06 a near certainty in Sep06 and borderline Jun06, where's all the rate cutters now? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

How many damn times have I said this and the BoE are correct on the retail issue.

The retail sector has to readjust from absolute boom times. IMO it has to contract in terms of the number of outlets.

Also, of note is that the sales, which are used to drive competition to their knees, are almost over. Look around, the offers that we saw last month are over and prices are rising and people are still spending.

I really hope that we start to see an effect in CPI very soon as that reflects what is going on in the high street etc and I still hold a grain of faith the ONS :huh:

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http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/f...TAIN-RETAIL.XML

Oh dear, oh dear retail spending isn't on its knees after all, what will the BoE do next?

Short sterling now showing a defiinite rise in rates Dec06 a near certainty in Sep06 and borderline Jun06, where's all the rate cutters now? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

The "improvement" in retail sales is illusory:

In its monthly survey, the British Retail Consortium said like-for-like sales, which strips out the impact of changes in floor space, climbed 0.6 pct from last February against expectations of a 1.0 pct improvement.
Additionally, the rise in February comes on the back of a weak comparison with the same month in 2005, when sales actually registered a fall.
The news rekindled hopes of a UK rate later in the year.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

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The "improvement" in retail sales is illusory:

In its monthly survey, the British Retail Consortium said like-for-like sales, which strips out the impact of changes in floor space, climbed 0.6 pct from last February against expectations of a 1.0 pct improvement.
Additionally, the rise in February comes on the back of a weak comparison with the same month in 2005, when sales actually registered a fall.
The news rekindled hopes of a UK rate later in the year.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

Don't be daft. People will start buying summer clothes soon and the 'good weather' will bring shoppers out in droves. :lol: Interest rates, you're cleared for take off. Climb to 6%.

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Realistbear,

like-for-like sales, which strips out the impact of changes in floor space, climbed 0.6 pct from last February against expectations of a 1.0 pct improvement

Really depends on what is happening to floorspace when the growth is this small. I wonder how complete the datasets are, whether small retail outlets are fully covered by the stats or if what is really being measured is sales amongst mainly the big chains. Big chains can for a while carry flat demand without resorting to floorspace changes, a small retailer may or may not be able to and may have to simply close.

I think it will take some time to find out the extent of what is really happening as it won;t be in the stats for retail space costs - landlords seem to be quite prepared to jack up or keep rents high even if the property remains empty.

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Realistbear,

like-for-like sales, which strips out the impact of changes in floor space, climbed 0.6 pct from last February against expectations of a 1.0 pct improvement

Really depends on what is happening to floorspace when the growth is this small. I wonder how complete the datasets are, whether small retail outlets are fully covered by the stats or if what is really being measured is sales amongst mainly the big chains. Big chains can for a while carry flat demand without resorting to floorspace changes, a small retailer may or may not be able to and may have to simply close.

I think it will take some time to find out the extent of what is really happening as it won;t be in the stats for retail space costs - landlords seem to be quite prepared to jack up or keep rents high even if the property remains empty.

Agree about the difficulty in interpretting data. For me, it is all about sentiment. The constant reporting of bearish data will impact perceptions of the market and influence decisions. For example, the bearish sentiment has caused my perception of the housing market to seeing it as the worst investment right now. So, I do not buy and continue renting. Likewise for the millions of people out there making daily decisions based on what they are listening to or reading in the media.

Problem with that is that the sheeple tend not to listen or read anything of value that is why they rarely see a crash coming and wake up too late. Ignorance is keeping this present bubble afloat awhile longer so we have to rely on the fundamentals to do the work for us.

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http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/f...TAIN-RETAIL.XML

Oh dear, oh dear retail spending isn't on its knees after all, what will the BoE do next?

Short sterling now showing a defiinite rise in rates Dec06 a near certainty in Sep06 and borderline Jun06, where's all the rate cutters now? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

I seem to remeber an almost identical post last year from you guaranteeing rate rises in May, Sept and Dec 05.

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Problem with that is that the sheeple tend not to listen or read anything of value that is why they rarely see a crash coming and wake up too late. Ignorance is keeping this present bubble afloat awhile longer so we have to rely on the fundamentals to do the work for us.

Bang on. People don't want to think they've missed the boat, so they just help inflate the bubble longer.

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http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/f...TAIN-RETAIL.XML

Oh dear, oh dear retail spending isn't on its knees after all, what will the BoE do next?

Short sterling now showing a defiinite rise in rates Dec06 a near certainty in Sep06 and borderline Jun06, where's all the rate cutters now? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

I would go out any further than June with futures expectations. it gets too unreliable any further than that.

whats clear is the market sees no rate change in the 1st half of the year

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I don't believe any of the stats, just what I see.

I see emptier car parks when I go shopping.

I see less people in the shops.

I no longer have to queue when I want to buy something.

Assuming that a significant portion of the populace put things on credit, and spend all of their monthly income (savings levels are very low) then any squeeze on their diposable income will hit retailers.

If energy costs rise (oh... they are rising) and council tax rises (oh... it is?) then their disposable income that they would have spent at the retailers decreases.

If they also stop borrwoing to spend (seems to be starting to bite) then thats more money that the retailers don't get.

if they stop MEWing so much (already happening) to spend in the shops then that will further dent retailers take.

It dosen't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the general public are going to have less money to spend in shops due to less MEW, less borrowing, less disposable income.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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