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If HBOS showed significant drops in the prices acheived for properties on point of sale does not the fact that rigtmove shows prices rising for properties not yet sold show a drop in the market?

IE, properties that are selling are doing so for less money, but the properties that are not selling are the more expensive ones..

does this make sense

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If HBOS showed significant drops in the prices acheived for properties on point of sale does not the fact that rigtmove shows prices rising for properties not yet sold show a drop in the market?

IE, properties that are selling are doing so for less money, but the properties that are not selling are the more expensive ones..

does this make sense

That is one POSSIBLE interpretation.

The stats (nobodies stats) include a direct comparison of all features of a house that would allow them to be compared with any degree of clarity... I don't think any of the stats even track the number of bedrooms in a house.

If the LR stats had the type of property and also listed the number of bedrooms when sold it would make them far more interesting.

Halifax/Nationwide etc generalise so much (aggregate stats across poor and rich areas etc) that the stats aren't worth noting other than for general trends (if you trust how the stats are fabricated).

So I guess the point is that all of these stats mean nothing when you apply them to an individual property.

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That is one POSSIBLE interpretation.

The stats (nobodies stats) include a direct comparison of all features of a house that would allow them to be compared with any degree of clarity... I don't think any of the stats even track the number of bedrooms in a house.

If the LR stats had the type of property and also listed the number of bedrooms when sold it would make them far more interesting.

Halifax/Nationwide etc generalise so much (aggregate stats across poor and rich areas etc) that the stats aren't worth noting other than for general trends (if you trust how the stats are fabricated).

So I guess the point is that all of these stats mean nothing when you apply them to an individual property.

In addition to the points you raise, the asking prices of houses currently on Rightmove is highly biased towards overpriced properties. A really cheap property will go pretty quickly, and therefore only contribute to the average over a short time. An overpriced property will hang around for ages, and hence be contributing to the average over a much longer time. So at any one time, there should be a much higher proportion of overpriced properties on Rightmove than there will be among the properties actually sold.

I feel a numerical simulation coming up. Are there any statisticians out there?

Billy Shears

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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