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Realistbear

More Bad News From Retail Sector Today

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http://www.theretailbulletin.co.uk/index.p...d=8023&cat=news

Despite some recent optimism from the Bank of England, figures from retail research group SPSL’s Retail Traffic Index (RTI) released today show that the Bank’s view is not being reflected in the actions of shoppers.
SPSL’s RTI for February shows that the number of shoppers entering stores across the UK was down by 4.9% year-on-year and down 11.2% against an already depressed January; the lowest numbers since records began in 1998.

Consumer sentiment is extremely bearish, the sheeple are slowly waking up to the fact that the "Miracle Economy" was smoke and mirrors with nothing to show other than the Trillion Pound debt bill. Watch out for the unemployment figures to start moving soon.

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The article highlights an extremely important point from Dr Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at SPSL:

"What we are witnessing is a change in people’s spending priorities, created by a flip in relative prices. Consumer goods represent amazing value for money and continue to fall in price, in relative terms, whereas the basic essentials of living are becoming ever dearer.

“Electrical goods, luxury foods, furniture, clothes and even cars represent a smaller burden on annual incomes than they ever have, whereas the cost of everyday living; ‘staples’ such as housing, council tax, gas, electricity, water and vehicle fuel, are rising inexorably. Ironically, the ‘wants’ of life are now easier to afford than the ‘needs’. It could be that people are becoming bored with the easy availability of consumer goods once outside their reach and more cautious because of the rise in the price of ‘needs’.”

Since 'needs' must be paid before 'wants', it's clear that the effective rate of inflation being experienced by households is significantly greater than the official figures show.

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I don't see this as a drama. From my perspective the shops seem as busy as ever. The retail sector has overexpanded over the last 10 years and needs a few years of consolidation.

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When will you have some good news for us RealistBear? :unsure:

I bought a new car window scraper from Halfords today! Gotta keep this miracle economy baby on the road...

Turned down their special credit card for the 5th time, though.

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Just an anecdotal. I was out shopping in Solihull for the last two weekends. The weekend before theend of Feb was quiet. The town centre was emptying by 2.00pm. The weekend at the start of March was very busy all day. I was puzzled and asked my sisterif she could explain it. She knew why immediately. "It was the end of the month and everyone was waiting to be paid". If she is right then it would seem many people, even in affluent, up-market Solihull, are living on the edge of their income. I'm not sure but I certainly don't remember this sort of monthly fluctuation going on a few months ago.

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When will you have some good news for us RealistBear? :unsure:

I bought a new car window scraper from Halfords today! Gotta keep this miracle economy baby on the road...

Turned down their special credit card for the 5th time, though.

Its all good news--for Bears!

I was shopping in Guildford today and it was about the quiestest I have ever seen the normally bustling town. I even found free parking quite easily! Shops mostly empty, plenty of places to sit and enjoy coffee at M & S Cafe Revive. Looked in most of the EA windows--one or two staff sitting at their desks looking very bored with zero customers in any of them. Guildford dropped 7% in the last Q according to the LR figures and the slump is definately reflected in the shopping areas.

Edited by Realistbear

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Its all good news--for Bears!

I was shopping in Guildford today and it was about the quiestest I have ever seen the normally bustling town. I even found free parking quite easily! Shops mostly empty, plenty of places to sit and enjoy coffee at M & S Cafe Revive. Looked in most of the EA windows--one or two staff sitting at their desks looking very bored with zero customers in any of them. Guildford dropped 7% in the last Q according to the LR figures and the slump is definately reflected in the shopping areas.

I lost my car in a multi storey carpark in Guildford :rolleyes: . I was looking on the wrong floor (in my defence, my son was only about 2 weeks old at the time).

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Its all good news--for Bears!

I was shopping in Guildford today and it was about the quiestest I have ever seen the normally bustling town. I even found free parking quite easily! Shops mostly empty, plenty of places to sit and enjoy coffee at M & S Cafe Revive. Looked in most of the EA windows--one or two staff sitting at their desks looking very bored with zero customers in any of them. Guildford dropped 7% in the last Q according to the LR figures and the slump is definately reflected in the shopping areas.

I've been to quite a few shopping centres around London and the S.E. since the new year and not only are very few people spending but the number of vacant shops is astonishing.

Not that this retail recession has been noticed by greedy landlords, seemingly. I had a look at a shop today (potential turf accountants) and it's been vacant for 18 months. I asked the agents if he's had any offers; "oh yes, he's had two but the covenants were not good enough and we want 6 months rent in advance". This isn't prime retail, more like off-spec secondary!!!! So the landlord prefers an empty shop and no rent to getting someone in there. Truly remarkable.

One store that's bucking the trend is Primark. In fact sometimes I see more of their bags than the rest combined.

But apparantly everything's fine with the British economy. What a load of crap. Remember, this is just the beginning........

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I've been to quite a few shopping centres around London and the S.E. since the new year and not only are very few people spending but the number of vacant shops is astonishing.

Not that this retail recession has been noticed by greedy landlords, seemingly. I had a look at a shop today (potential turf accountants) and it's been vacant for 18 months. I asked the agents if he's had any offers; "oh yes, he's had two but the covenants were not good enough and we want 6 months rent in advance". This isn't prime retail, more like off-spec secondary!!!! So the landlord prefers an empty shop and no rent to getting someone in there. Truly remarkable.

One store that's bucking the trend is Primark. In fact sometimes I see more of their bags than the rest combined.

But apparantly everything's fine with the British economy. What a load of crap. Remember, this is just the beginning........

We went into Evesham a few days ago and noticed that 6 shops were closed/closing in the enclosed precinct which only has about 20 stores in total. In neighbouring Broadway--hyper upscale village in the Cotswolds, all the boutiquey stores are continuing their post Christmas 70% off sales with barely a soul shopping.

The CBI figures on the retail crash are real--we are into the recession. It would be better for the VIs to admit things have gone horribly wrong and that there is nothing left to inflate house prices further. We know it makes sense.

HPC 2006.

Edited by Realistbear

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We went into Evesham a few days ago and noticed that 6 shops were closed/closing in the enclosed precinct which only has about 20 stores in total. In neighbouring Broadway--hyper upscale village in the Cotswolds, all the boutiquey stores are continuing their post Christmas 70% off sales with barely a soul shopping.

The CBI figures on the retail crash are real--we are into the recession. It would be better for the VIs to admit things have gone horribly wrong and that there is nothing left to inflate house prices further. We know it makes sense.

HPC 2006.

Thanks Realist Bear. You're the first person I know who agrees with me when I say, "we're in a recession NOW".

Not next month or next year, but it's HERE.

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Thanks Realist Bear. You're the first person I know who agrees with me when I say, "we're in a recession NOW".

Not next month or next year, but it's HERE.

Was in Poole on Saturday, lot's of empty shops plus a new charity shop.

A couple of EA's had a few reduced properties in the windows.

The landscape of the high street is changing. I wonder if the public have noticed much?

Busy places are the cheap eateries, coffee shops, cheap clothes shops and charity shops!!

A large Littlewoods store has closed and is being replaced by 'Primark'. This will put further pressure on existing retailers and probably force closures of independant stores.

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Was in Poole on Saturday, lot's of empty shops plus a new charity shop.

A couple of EA's had a few reduced properties in the windows.

The landscape of the high street is changing. I wonder if the public have noticed much?

Busy places are the cheap eateries, coffee shops, cheap clothes shops and charity shops!!

A large Littlewoods store has closed and is being replaced by 'Primark'. This will put further pressure on existing retailers and probably force closures of independant stores.

In Evesham, near where I live, there is a new "Pound" store where everything on sale is a pound. Seeing a few of these here and there. A sign of the times?

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Shamus,

Customers were "rattling around like a lizard in a tin" at the local Leekes at the weekend, mid 90's the place used to pretty full. Zero down payments to 2007, only so many times you can roll next years sales into this year.

Oh, we bought two buckets and a sieve.

No FTB's no household spending by doer uppers.

I cannot get my head around commerical property investors either, some of these places are unrentable at anything like the current asking prices, they weill be empty for a looong time.

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Shamus,

Customers were "rattling around like a lizard in a tin" at the local Leekes at the weekend, mid 90's the place used to pretty full. Zero down payments to 2007, only so many times you can roll next years sales into this year.

Oh, we bought two buckets and a sieve.

No FTB's no household spending by doer uppers.

I cannot get my head around commerical property investors either, some of these places are unrentable at anything like the current asking prices, they weill be empty for a looong time.

I agree

thing is a lot of commercial property is selling for really low yields (such as 4.5%) the argument being that it has such a good covenant - such as M&S.

and ?

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I cannot get my head around commerical property investors either, some of these places are unrentable at anything like the current asking prices, they weill be empty for a looong time.

This is why there are so many chain coffee bars everywhere. Doesn't matter how many there already are, it seems a town centre can always use at least five more. Basically, these places are pure profit with their 3 quid coffee and rip off toasties. Commerical rents are so high, selling normal, useful everyday items cannot be sustained.

The megamall concept - every second town now seems to have a purpose built big mall either dominating the town centre on stuck on the motorway just outside - is just such a poor shopping experience. Overlit, townie kids screaming everywhere, every second unit a teenwear shop for girls. I predict these places will become 90s relics and going forward the emphasis will be on improving town centres not surplanting them.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Thanks Realist Bear. You're the first person I know who agrees with me when I say, "we're in a recession NOW".

Not next month or next year, but it's HERE.

What am I, chopped liver? ;):)

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Just an anecdotal. I was out shopping in Solihull for the last two weekends. The weekend before theend of Feb was quiet. The town centre was emptying by 2.00pm. The weekend at the start of March was very busy all day. I was puzzled and asked my sisterif she could explain it. She knew why immediately. "It was the end of the month and everyone was waiting to be paid". If she is right then it would seem many people, even in affluent, up-market Solihull, are living on the edge of their income. I'm not sure but I certainly don't remember this sort of monthly fluctuation going on a few months ago.

It has been going on for a while. When i worked in retail, especially non essential, there were slight fluctuations.

Possible 2-3% higher sales on pay day. But nothing too major.

However, retail is definatly in a recession. What do they expect when everybody is stretched to the hilt and then back again?

Edited by Down with the BBC

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I've been looking to buy a business back in the UK. Prices seem to have dropped back since August 2005. I know this is subjective but it's important to me as an investor. Cheaper is not always good value.

I think we are on the way to recession........ but look at New Zealand. That country is about to sink. I know little about economics but watch the NZ exchange rate. I predict it will tumble. It's been overvalued for a long, long time because of the interest rates. Beautiful country though!

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By the sounds of it, the only people shopping are the people on this website!!!

Come on guys, what you doing? Leave those unnecessary goods alone, you're delaying the HPC. :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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