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john_d_uk

A Snapshot Of Market Sentiment

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I do believe that the crash will come in the UK when the muppets of society finally wake up to what is happening right now - flat growth (or drops around here) more properties for sale, longer on the market prior to sale, ever increasing debt, low rental returns etc...

I went to a dinner party a week or so ago; one of the guests there, who had just moved to the area spoke about her previous house which she sold last year (2005).

She bought the house in the North-west about 1998, after it had been on the market for 5 years, without selling. When she wanted to sell last year, she obtained a valuation from an EA but disagreed with the value. She thought it was worth £100k more!! She was very sheepish about the final sale price, but it did sell.

I asked her what she had done to the house since she bought it; nothing much, just the odd bit of repainting etc. I asked her how she thought it was worth so much, when five years before no-one would buy it (and hadn't for the previous 5 years)

She basically did not agree with me that the only reason she sold a house that was previously unsold for 5 years was a change in the market sentiment - i.e. in 1999 the market was still recovering from a huge crash and protracted lull, whilst in 2005 it was following a huge boom.

After both events, the public was late to catch on to what had occurred and the fact that the 'bottom' or 'top' of the housing market had just occurred. She could not see that the house she has just bought, and paid £350k or thereabouts for, is hugely overpriced. When I tried to explain the facts of the current HPC situation, she looked as if I was speaking Chinese, for all the sense it made to her. The same house 3 years ago would have been about £190k :o

Are there any others with experiences lke this? :ph34r:

Edited by john_d_uk

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I would agree about perception lag.

The bottom of the market was 1995-6. Okay, so the pick-up was slow, but it wasn't until 2001 that people really started noticing and talking about it.

I am expecting a good 18 months from here until people notice.

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I spoke to someone in their early 20s over the weekend due to family visits. It seems that high house-prices are considered an immutable fact of life. Some friends had just bought. If I recall correctly the friends had been worried about being able to buy anything (much more expensive part of the UK than here in Leicester), but they went to the bank and found that they could borrow much more than they expected to, so there was "no problem".

Billy Shears

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I would agree about perception lag.

The bottom of the market was 1995-6. Okay, so the pick-up was slow, but it wasn't until 2001 that people really started noticing and talking about it.

I am expecting a good 18 months from here until people notice.

I bought in '99 and I remember at the time my mum telling me that they were expensive to buy THEN, and that they are going to come down - cos she saw it on Working Lunch.

I remember doing some research to see what market commentators thought, and the general consensus was that they were going to go up by 35% in 5 years. What an underestimate!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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