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:o

So for every €100 we earn, we are borrowing €180.This is the highest level in the world and, as it is growing at 30 per cent per annum (or about €55 billion), it is also growing the fastest

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That is a fantastic article.

Also exciting is the series of programmes on the decline and future of Russia channel 4 is plannong to show.

The UK debt is over 100% of GDP. At the current rate of UK credit expansion, caused by the central bank, the UK debt mountain (i.e. Houseprices) will be over 2.2Trillion inside a decade, a 7% rate of credit growth.

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Excellent article.

I'm afraid it will fall on deaf ears. People don't really like to know that their pants are about to fall down.

By the way here is a picture of Khrushchev's shoes (just in case anybody was interested).

shoes2.jpg

:D

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If the Irish economy does not blow up spectacularly in the next few years, then everything we have learned about economic history will have been turned on its head.

I have just shown this article to Mrs Flash, who recalled that a few days ago whilst she was having coffee with friends in our leafy Dublin suburb, they started to gang-up on her as to why Mr Flash would not buy a house for her.

One pointed out that her friend had just moved into a house around the corner at Christmas, and is €40k up already!! Mrs Flash just went a bit quiet, as she often does in this situation.

It winds me up a bit though. These people that have supposedly made €40k in two months, actually paid around €50k in stamp duty, so they are not even in the black yet.

Also, these discussions all seem to start from the premise that we are missing out - Mrs Flash would have got a better deal if she had married a man with mindset of their husbands and mortgaged themselves to the hilt. :angry:

So I had to point out to Mrs Flash that with the majority of our investments in equities, we are doing just fine - very well over the last few months in fact. Not that I will share this information with neighbours - they continue to think that we have completely missed out by renting over the last two years. :rolleyes:

We continue to stand on the beach with our mouths open - watching people having the time of their lives swimming with the sharks. The sounds of everyone beckoning us to join them is almost deafening.

And to think I wondered what Amsterdam would have been like at the height of Tulipmania. :rolleyes:

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No, not swimming with sharks, more like godlfish ;)

A godlfish?

Interestingly, on google 465 people have spelt goldfish as godlfish.

Strange but true...

goldfish%20in%20bowl.jpg

:D

Edited by werewolves

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This would bring the overall stock of debt in the economy to between €380 billion and €400 billion or something like 230 per cent of GDP. This implies that every 1 per cent increase in interest rates will cost us 2 per cent of GDP in extra servicing.

My emphasis.

So a fairly healthy GDP growth of say 2% could be wiped out if ECB rates rise to just 3.5% that year.

Eeek!

frugalista

As the construction sector employs a quarter of a million people, its boom is also a boom in wages and spending from this sector.

Holy Mary mother of Jesus. This is in a country where the total population (including non-workers) is about 3.5 - 4 million people!

Eeek!

frugalista

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My emphasis.

So a fairly healthy GDP growth of say 2% could be wiped out if ECB rates rise to just 3.5% that year.

Eeek!

frugalista

Holy Mary mother of Jesus. This is in a country where the total population (including non-workers) is about 3.5 - 4 million people!

Eeek!

frugalista

Yep. 80K dwelling completions per annum. That is one for every 50 people in the country. More than Germany were building per annum when recovering from effects of bombing during WW2.

I believe we're currently slightly below average dwellings per head of population ratio for the EU but are on track to catch up to that in 2-3 years or so, even with biggish influxes of immigrants.

The upshot is if the building boom keeps on for much longer they'll have to give newbuilds away free inside boxes of cereal or something :)

The GDP growth figure *is* scary, particularly as the pace of growth has been slowing over recent years.

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If

One pointed out that her friend had just moved into a house around the corner at Christmas, and is €40k up already!! Mrs Flash just went a bit quiet, as she often does in this situation.

Mrs Flash needs to tell them you can get a house in Dublin in 2010 for half todays price, that'll make em choke on their prawn sandwiches.

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[half a million work in construction]

[snip]

Holy Mary mother of Jesus. This is in a country where the total population (including non-workers) is about 3.5 - 4 million people!

Which makes the initial figures highly suspicious... one in two adults of working age is in construction? What about all the call centres and off-shored banking facilities?

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Which makes the initial figures highly suspicious... one in two adults of working age is in construction? What about all the call centres and off-shored banking facilities?

In the US the construction sector is responsible for two thirds of job creation and GDP growth! :o

If that doesn't scare the be-jesus out of you then it should!

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Which makes the initial figures highly suspicious... one in two adults of working age is in construction? What about all the call centres and off-shored banking facilities?

Eh? Care to explain your workings there?

Working age pop is about 2 million.

If a quarter of a million are in construction that is 1/8 of the workforce.

Which TBH I believe as I seem to meet a lot of builder types (and professionally I'm in no way connected to construction. I scuba dive recreationally and pretty much every other person I dive with is a builder or a chippy or a sparks, so unless there's some diving/building connection...).

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thats almost as many people working for the nhs (the largest employer in europe/the world, half a million?)

Edited by moosetea

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thats almost as many people working for the nhs (the largest employer in europe/the world, half a million?)

Again, where is half a million coming from? The figure above is a quarter of a million.

Considering the sector is outputting 80K dwellings per year, that's about 3 builders per dwelling completed. Plus a lot of the development is commercial property, roads and infrastructure (e.g. the Port Tunnel) and the like. And all the ones who are renovating property, building extensions and the like.

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Again, where is half a million coming from? The figure above is a quarter of a million.

Considering the sector is outputting 80K dwellings per year, that's about 3 builders per dwelling completed. Plus a lot of the development is commercial property, roads and infrastructure (e.g. the Port Tunnel) and the like. And all the ones who are renovating property, building extensions and the like.

That's before you get onto professional services like planners, lawyers, surveyors and ancillary services like utilities and drainage engineers.

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i'd doubt they add up to the same as those actually doing the construction. still, it's an absolutely enormous industry, 25% directly or indirectly employed is a figure i've heard bandied about so if you're including absolutely everything it could add up to 500,000.

Edited by CaptainClamp

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Irish housing stats.

'Ireland has highest European per capita house building rate':

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnew...e_1000716.shtml

The strength and extent of the property boom can be seen in the fact that over a third of the current housing stock has been built in the past decade. Annual completions are 3.5 times what they were a decade ago, and the country has the highest per capita building rate in Europe.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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