Ecb Rate Rises Sound Death Knell For Hpi

[Guest muttley]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../05/ixcoms.html

Accordingly, I expect the pace of the ECB's monetary tightening to pick up over the coming months, with the next quarter point move in May. And I expect rates to reach 3.5 per cent or so by the end of the year.

If the ECB were determined to get interest rates back to normal or neutral, that would imply rates of up to 4 or 5 per cent. Euro zone consumers may not be that sensitive to higher interest rates directly but they will not be indifferent to the indirect effects.

Euro rates at 5%.........oh dear.

[The Masked Tulip]

I may have been reading his articles wrongly but isn't he up one article, down the next re house prices, interest rates, the colour of smarties, etc?

Roger, I bought that 'Money For Nothing' book - can I have my money back!?

[Mr_Nice]

I may have been reading his articles wrongly but isn't he up one article, down the next re house prices, interest rates, the colour of smarties, etc?

Roger, I bought that 'Money For Nothing' book - can I have my money back!?

I agree he is so inconsistent and just plainly wrong I dont see that he has any credible comment.

[BandWagon]

There are times when I agree with Roger Bootle, and times when I think he writes drivel.

Take this for example

So why is the ECB being so pre-emptively hawkish? It is driven by the signs from the forward -looking indicators, such as the various surveys, that a significant recovery is imminent. It is concerned that interest rates are abnormally low and that if the economy picks up decisively it will be found to be "behind the curve".

Market rates in the Eurozone are shooting up at the moment.

This isn't some crystal ball stuff, it's hard, on the ground evidence that the price of money has gone up.

The ECB is already "behind the curve", and they will be forced to raise rates accordingly.

[Warwickshire Lad]

Ever since Bootle and his organisation backed off from their prediction of 20% price falls over 4 years, I think he's lost credibility.

That said I'd like Euro rates to rise to put more pressure upwards on UK rates, so I'd like to believe he was right but I'm none the wiser.

[van hoogstraten]

it seems like (bar the odd exception) UK financial journalists would like the European economies to get in the abject overstretched credit driven mess ours is in.

[BandWagon]

Ever since Bootle and his organisation backed off from their prediction of 20% price falls over 4 years, I think he's lost credibility.

Why did they do that?

In "Money for Nothing" RB repeatedly asserts that the UK housing market needs to go bust before healthy growth can resume. It's one of the themes of the book. Bubbles burst.

Yet CE have said they were wrong, losing credibility.

And as the housing market now crashes, they will be wrong again.

Why not just stick with the original story? Why be wrong twice?

There's plenty of evidence to show prices are falling.

It doesn't make sense.

Edited March 5, 2006 by BandWagon

[werewolves]

I believe, only a few months ago, Bootle was predicting UK rates at 3.5% by the end of the year.

I don't have much time for the guy anymore.

Booty Rodgering Bootle doesn't seem to have had much luck with his predictions of late.

May be he's lost the gift.