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sam

I Was 100% Certain Of A Crash 2 Years Ago

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Two years ago i thought that a property crash was a certainty, today i am not sure, i would probably have to go 60/40 in favour of a crash, but those odds have been getting worse by the month.

Did i make a big mistake two years ago when i could have bought quite a substantial property, today i would get a lot less for my money, even though i am on even better money than i was two years ago.

Is there really something different this time, what i thought was going to cripple the housing market 2 years ago is now worse, namely high consumer debt, but still the machine keeps chugging away.

I still think the money we are borrowing to get our own property is crazy, but if thats the way it is, and if thats the way it is going to continue in my lifetime i need to maybe reconsider my lifeplan.

Sorry Guys, and i know i am not the only one thinking these thoughts, but i am starting to suspect i might have called this one wrong.

I am really pissed off, and very unsure at the moment, help me out Guys.

Sam

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Two years ago i thought that a property crash was a certainty, today i am not sure, i would probably have to go 60/40 in favour of a crash, but those odds have been getting worse by the month.

Did i make a big mistake two years ago when i could have bought quite a substantial property, today i would get a lot less for my money, even though i am on even better money than i was two years ago.

Is there really something different this time, what i thought was going to cripple the housing market 2 years ago is now worse, namely high consumer debt, but still the machine keeps chugging away.

I still think the money we are borrowing to get our own property is crazy, but if thats the way it is, and if thats the way it is going to continue in my lifetime i need to maybe reconsider my lifeplan.

Sorry Guys, and i know i am not the only one thinking these thoughts, but i am starting to suspect i might have called this one wrong.

I am really pissed off, and very unsure at the moment, help me out Guys.

Sam

go look in the mirror and give yourself a f*ckin hard slap for falling for the self doubt trap. When the last bear turns bull.

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Uh?

I'm more certain of a crash. Infact, it's along the lines of what I expect - poor economy, stagflation increasing unemployment... It's not going to happen over night.

It will take along time, another year of stagnant prices, and by year end I expect falling prices to be excepted. Then will the BTL crowd run?

Then again, an early interest rate rise would knock sentiment for 6. Whereas, a IR cut would result in a house price bounce (not that I think this will happen).

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Sam, something is different this time, central bankers are trying to control the business cycle, as we all know there should have been a recession after the dot-com crash (ok I know there was short/mild one in the US). I honestly believe that central bankers will do all they can to stop house prices from dropping in nominal terms given the significant impact this would have on the economy. Trouble is, despite what central bankers may like to think of themselves, they can't create wealth out of thin air, so if they keep interest rates down to prop up the housing market, did you notice the .25 cut last autumn, inflation is going to pick up eventually, I think the signs are it is now, so we'll get a crash in real terms over a number of years as house prices stay flat.

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Jason Posted Today, 07:00 PM

Uh?

I'm more certain of a crash

same here, if you look at every bit of evidence - then versus now - I would say now looks like a better bet by far

Edited by feltsorryfor

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same here, if you look at every bit of evidence - then versus now - I would say now looks like a better bet by far

Yea but, if you've follwed it for years though each of the false downs have taken a little bit out of some folks, its a constant dissapointment which alot of people steel themselves against by backing away from thier initial concept.

People just need to bring themselves back on track and stop being so soft :)

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Uh?

I'm more certain of a crash. Infact, it's along the lines of what I expect - poor economy, stagflation increasing unemployment... It's not going to happen over night.

It will take along time, another year of stagnant prices, and by year end I expect falling prices to be excepted. Then will the BTL crowd run?

Then again, an early interest rate rise would knock sentiment for 6. Whereas, a IR cut would result in a house price bounce (not that I think this will happen).

Hi Jason

you are too right it is not going to happen over night, but i do not think it will be of much use to anyone if we have to wait decades, which i am now starting to suspect is possible.

Sam

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the chuz, totally agree mate.

Just trying to make the point that then versus now is, as far as I'm concerned, a no-brainer. :blink:

Really dont understand why people are freaking out at this point in the cycle. This is the "good" bit.

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the chuz, totally agree mate.

Just trying to make the point that then versus now is, as far as I'm concerned, a no-brainer. :blink:

Really dont understand why people are freaking out at this point in the cycle. This is the "good" bit.

No, I can understand why people are getting jittery. The VIs are pulling out all the stops to crack the resolve of the last poor fools. There will be more of this to come, and then it will get better.

frugalista

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I sympathise with Sam's frustration, although at least in our area shop-window prices are no higher than spring 2004 and with so much stuff unsold a serious offer should land you place below that 2004 peak.

Of course, in many parts of the country, BTL-mania continued to send prices higher after Spring 2004 and that must nervewracking for those that were looking for a crash in those areas.

I confess, that I'm a little disappointed there haven't been more falls. By now, I'd have expected our deposit to be much more 'powerful' as we slowly save as prices slowly fall. Overall, though, the general economic outlook is pointing to a soon-to-be realised crash more than ever. I certainly wouldn't buy now for all the tea in china.

Edited by CrashedOutAndBurned

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Hi Jason

you are too right it is not going to happen over night, but i do not think it will be of much use to anyone if we have to wait decades, which i am now starting to suspect is possible.

Sam

Sam,

I read on here because I like keeping up to date with the economy/houses etc, but I don't get too worked up over the issue. If I did, I would probably drink more!

What's your situation?

For me it's simple, with wage inflation and my saving rate houseprices would need to go up by around 8% for me to stand still. I know I won't buy until 2007.

Seriously, if you're getting worked up take a month off, get a dog, get laid - anything. Then in a year come back and ask us what's changed. I think you will be pleasently surprised. If any oldies tell you to buy (that's the only think that works me up) poke them in the eye!

Right, i'm gonna take a break and get drunk! :o

Edited by Jason

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Guest Winners and Losers

Sam,

I read on here because I like keeping up to date with the economy/houses etc, but I don't get too worked up over the issue. If I did, I would probably drink more!

What's your situation?

For me it's simple, with wage inflation and my saving rate houseprices would need to go up by around 8% for me to stand still. I know I won't buy until 2007.

Seriously, if you're getting worked up take a month off, get a dog, get laid - anything. Then in a year come back and ask us what's changed. I think you will be pleasently surprised. If any oldies tell you to buy (that's the only think that works me up) poke them in the eye!

Right, i'm gonna take a break and get drunk! :o

I'm already through half a bottle tonight. :angry:

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Sam,

I read on here because I like keeping up to date with the economy/houses etc, but I don't get too worked up over the issue. If I did, I would probably drink more!

What's your situation?

For me it's simple, with wage inflation and my saving rate houseprices would need to go up by around 8% for me to stand still. I know I won't buy until 2007.

Seriously, if you're getting worked up take a month off, get a dog, get laid - anything. Then in a year come back and ask us what's changed. I think you will be pleasently surprised. If any oldies tell you to buy (that's the only think that works me up) poke them in the eye!

Right, i'm gonna take a break and get drunk! :o

Good advice but what ever you do dont get a dog to get laid, its illegal unless you can prove it gave its consent.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Good advice but what ever you do dont get a dog to get laid, its illegal unless you can prove it gave its consent.

Woof, woof. :P

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Two years ago i thought that a property crash was a certainty, today i am not sure, i would probably have to go 60/40 in favour of a crash, but those odds have been getting worse by the month.

Did i make a big mistake two years ago when i could have bought quite a substantial property, today i would get a lot less for my money, even though i am on even better money than i was two years ago.

Is there really something different this time, what i thought was going to cripple the housing market 2 years ago is now worse, namely high consumer debt, but still the machine keeps chugging away.

I still think the money we are borrowing to get our own property is crazy, but if thats the way it is, and if thats the way it is going to continue in my lifetime i need to maybe reconsider my lifeplan.

Sorry Guys, and i know i am not the only one thinking these thoughts, but i am starting to suspect i might have called this one wrong.

I am really pissed off, and very unsure at the moment, help me out Guys.

Sam

Can the average person buy the average house? If you answer no, then there is a bubble.

It looks to me like ABC is getting ready to run a story on the crash of the housing market. Look what I found today.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1659262

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Guest Winners and Losers

Isnt it one woof for yes and two for no? :lol:

Oooohh, clever boy Chuz, clever boy!

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Oooohh, clever boy Chuz, clever boy!

well.. thats one way to f*ck a thread up and im blaming it all on ..... you

ill look for it in off topic :lol:

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well.. thats one way to f*ck a thread up and im blaming it all on ..... you

ill look for it in off topic :lol:

I think you will find, if we look back a few, that the blame rests squarely on YOUR shoulders. I was 'woofing' to say, gee, when is that house price crash going to happen? You are such a 'dobber'! :D;)

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I think you will find, if we look back a few, that the blame rests squarely on YOUR shoulders. I was 'woofing' to say, gee, when is that house price crash going to happen? You are such a 'dobber'! :D;)

nah that cant be right, and would you believe it my back button doesn't take me back to where it should, oh well. :lol: oh and i havnt heard the word dobber for a long ol time :lol:

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I am really pissed off, and very unsure at the moment, help me out Guys.

Sam

If you follow the market on a day-to-day basis you're going to do your head in.

There just isn't much use in reading the latest crapmove report that says house prices are rocketing, the industry that so desperately needs to support this bubble for it's own survival is just too big.

Have a look at the graph, see 50 years of history, and realise that this is a monster of a bubble that's going to have horrendous implications as it bursts.

Rather spend your time finding ways to protect yourself from the bust.

Recessions_and_the_housing_cycle.GIF

post-1529-1141420551.gif

Edited by BandWagon

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Guest Winners and Losers

nah that cant be right, and would you believe it my back button doesn't take me back to where it should, oh well. :lol: oh and i havnt heard the word dobber for a long ol time :lol:

Dibber dobber, dibber dobber. Liar, liar pants on fire too! Excuses, excuses. :)

Are we showing our age? Talk about degenerate!

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Have a look at the graph, see 50 years of history, and realise that this is a monster of a bubble that's going to have horrendous implications as it bursts.

More desperate bearish spinning of the data.

It might be interesting to include interest rates as an overlay on your graph.

In other words, show a graph of affordability in terms of monthly repayments.

IRs were 13 to 15% during the last boom. They are now well under 5%.

(Nice try though...)

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Can the average person buy the average house? If you answer no, then there is a bubble.

It looks to me like ABC is getting ready to run a story on the crash of the housing market. Look what I found today.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1659262

I don't think the average FTB has ever been able to afford an averge house. FTBs usually start at the cheap end.

More desperate bearish spinning of the data.

It might be interesting to include interest rates as an overlay on your graph.

In other words, show a graph of affordability in terms of monthly repayments.

IRs were 13 to 15% during the last boom. They are now well under 5%.

(Nice try though...)

I have to agree. Wasn't there a thread some months ago that proved that affordability is better than ever at the moment, due to low IRs?

It could be that a slow, gradual rise in IRs over the next 3 years, combined with price stagnation, will take us back to normal (less) affordablility.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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