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Scientists Say H5n1 Is Mutating Steadily

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticl..._UK-BIRDFLU.xml

Europe counts bird flu cost as fresh cases emerge

Fri Mar 3, 2006 2:15 PM GMT

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's poultry industry counted the multi-million-dollar cost of the spread of bird flu in lost sales on Friday after U.S. agencies urged more funds to fight a possible deadly human pandemic that could kill millions.
As the world took steps to try to prepare for such an outbreak, Romania detected new cases of the deadly H5N1 virus in a village west of Bucharest and Switzerland found
more bird flu in wild birds
and Turkey in poultry flocks.
China issued a national bird flu warning that migratory birds returning during the spring could cause more human cases.
Scientists say H5N1 is mutating steadily and may eventually acquire the changes it needs to be easily transmitted from human to human
.
Because people lack any immunity to it, it could sweep the world in a matter of weeks or months, killing tens of millions and bringing economies to their knees.
France's poultry sector, the biggest in Europe, is now losing 40 million euros ($48 million) a month as bird flu hits sales at home and abroad
, French officials said on Friday.
The Paris government has said more than 40 countries have restricted imports of French poultry following the outbreak of H5N1 at a turkey farm in the east of the country. There have also been around 30 cases in wild birds in the same area.
Germany's poultry industry has lost more than 140 million euros since last autumn because of bird flu, with demand down around 20 percent from previous levels.

The effects on the world economy will clearly be dire and the first victim will be speculative markets including house prices. This is probably the time to divest of any leveraged investmenst, particularly if they are not income producing as long term Capital Gains will become VERY long term gains.

I am not usually into doomsday scenarios but now that this thing has spread to wild birds and is mutating we may have another 1918 scenario to face. The first case of human-to-human infection and there could be sharp sell-offs worldwide as the flight to safety (forgive pun) begins. The question is: what is safe?

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Scientists say H5N1 is mutating steadily and may eventually acquire the changes it needs to be easily transmitted from human to human.

I think that steady mutation is something common to all flu viruses which is one of the reasons why scientists were warning in the first place that this, more than some other diseases, was more likely to jump the species barrier and become a pandemic. Precisely because influenza in all its forms is very bad at producing exact copies of its RNA which leads to a much greater likelihood of mutations. In other lifeforms that would be bad news but for a virus it is actually an advantage. I don't think this article is saying anything new.

As for what to invest in to avoid the economic fallout from a pandemic.

I honestly can't think of anything that would be immune (excuse the pun).

Edited by underpressuretobuy

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economic growth would slump long before draconian restrictions on the movement of people and such like were enforced....In developed economies this economic turmoil would far outweigh the impact of the disease itself except for those directly affected by it.......Very very few people would have to fall ill or die for this economic impact to be felt.

The SARS crisis in Asia was a mere drop in the ocean but subdued demand for things like air travel.......

Edited by Michael

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A pandemic is a distinct possibility - much is written about the possibility on the web.

Unfortunately, the longer it is delayed the more servere the consequences as the virus will have an opportunity to mutate in various 'hosts' birds, cats, humans, etc. in order to arrive in a form which is easily perpetuated, as nature has the ability of adapting to new & extreme environmental conditions.

The extensive use of anti-virals maybe conter productive as the virus may adapt to surviving under these new conditions, thus rendering anti-virals ineffective in human populations if a crisis should break. (note durability of MRSA in hospitals)

In this case it would be logical to avoid exposure to the virus - thus allowing pandemic to run its course Globally over a few months. In this time an effective treatment may be found by governments in order to innoculate human populations.

I guess the 'secret' to surviving such a pandemic would be to have some anti-virals on hand which should be taken within 48hrs of exposure to the virus. As to healthcare & emergency services I don't know how they would cope with such a huge emergency. Restriction on movement would be essential to contain the pandemic so medicine, food & petrol would be in short supply.

Ideally, in such a scenario, members of public should have adequate provisions at home to last at least 2 months (fuel, water, milk powder, tinned goods, etc).

Personally, I hope that we can avoid this problem & nip it in the bud before it takes hold because it will have dire consequences for the Global economy - especially in developing nations like China & India - as well as causing huge social problems here.

Don't want to be all 'doom & Gloom' but as they said in the 1980's civil defence booklets - 'Protect & Survive' - as pre-planning can negate many effects of this possible scenario -

Best Wishse /

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"first victim will be speculative markets including house prices". Why?

Uncertainty - people will stick with what is safe and try and keep some liquid assests..just in case.

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Uncertainty - people will stick with what is safe and try and keep some liquid assests..just in case.

Unless we all die or flee the cities, I suspect most people who BTL now will still assume that other people need somewhere to rent and that property as an illiquid asset is more reliable than shares.

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I get the feeling that bird flu will strengthen rather than weaken the housing market. Why? In the atmosphere of chaos that would accompany an outbreak, bricks and mortar just seems even more of a 'reliable', solid asset. I can forsee stocks and shares yo-yoing like mad but property will, I think, be perceived by many as a safe refuge in every sense. Sentiment plays such a huge part in this, as we all know.

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I get the feeling that bird flu will strengthen rather than weaken the housing market. Why? In the atmosphere of chaos that would accompany an outbreak, bricks and mortar just seems even more of a 'reliable', solid asset. I can forsee stocks and shares yo-yoing like mad but property will, I think, be perceived by many as a safe refuge in every sense. Sentiment plays such a huge part in this, as we all know.

I just said that! :)

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I get the feeling that bird flu will strengthen rather than weaken the housing market. Why? In the atmosphere of chaos that would accompany an outbreak, bricks and mortar just seems even more of a 'reliable', solid asset.

Unfortunately if its as bad as some people think it could be, the death toll could cause a glut of housing (dead people don't need houses!) Sorry to be morbid :unsure:

Edited by cupidstunt

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Guest Bart of Darkness
The question is: what is safe?

A cave according to Chris Ryan's series on Sky.

I get the feeling that bird flu will strengthen rather than weaken the housing market. Why? In the atmosphere of chaos that would accompany an outbreak, bricks and mortar just seems even more of a 'reliable', solid asset. I can forsee stocks and shares yo-yoing like mad but property will, I think, be perceived by many as a safe refuge in every sense. Sentiment plays such a huge part in this, as we all know.

Depends on the mortality rate (one way of solving the "shortage" of housing).

Not sure whether Bird Flu will be the long predicted pandemic, we've been here before after all.

Human race "already dead".

It could be though and if it is, the effect on the markets will be the last thing we all worry about (assuming we as individuals actually survive).

Maybe this should be merged with the "gloomy" thread?

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one things for sure and that it's not going to go away.

i've stached up on about 6 months food supply just in case and if nothing happens then i still get to eat the tinned food. Don't exspect goverment to be much help

What made GW Bush buy shares in tamiflu and how did he know it would be a winner i want to know

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I just returned home from a trip to my local Budgen store and saw "Bird Flu" signs around the poultry section and how it is safe to eat as the product comes from England. Problem is that it won't be long before it does arrive here and this will cause some imbalances in the grocery business.

IMHO, bird flu as a pandemic is a given at some point and with it will come recession as travel restrictions kick in. The US will certainly stop imports and restrict personal travel in the early months before an outbreak occurs over there. Consumer sentiment will take a sizeable hit which may directly impact the speculative side of the housing market and could well be the major trigger (if one is needed--see today's threads on the crashes already happening in some States). I don't even want to think about the consequences of a 1918 type-flu and a population reduction of 25% or even 10%.

Its all a bit worrying and because its birds and not beef it can spread beyond farms to every corner of the country. I have already overheard parents talking about not taking kids down to feed the doocks and swans along the Avon.

Example of imbalances caused by BF:

http://www.centralchronicle.com/20060304/0403021.htm

Bhopal, March 3: Due to the fears of Bird Flu the prices of the fish have increased considerably. Nowadays the price of fish per kg is ranging between Rs 100 to Rs 110 which was used to be Rs 60 to Rs 70 in the open market. Likewise the rates of mutton have been gone up by Rs 20 to 30.

Deary me! Beef futures anyone?

Edited by Realistbear

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I can not reveal names on this occasion but one of the largest hotel chains in Europe has issued all it’s hotels with face masks to reassure the guests if H5N1 goes human to human that they will all be safe but I’m not so sure as I was told that if someone sneezes then the virus can enter the body via the eyes but I don’t know if this is true or not.

Government maybe sitting on their ass spending our tax money instead of facing up to their responsibilities but big business are taking steps whilst avoiding panicking the general population and the first country to come out and say that they have people that have contract the virus human to human will be severely punished by other nations.

Yes it may never happen but now is the time to prepare as once it breaks out the cost of stocking up on food will be enormous as stores become empty and prices go up accordingly

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Ebay as ever has some quality sellers. Type 'bird flu' into there search engine.

I especially liked:

BIRD FLU LICENCE PLATE / REGISTRATION MARK - HN51 FLU !

As featured on www.theregister.co.uk - LOTS OF INTEREST

I'm buying it now!! Should ward off those evil bird spirits :)

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From all this media coverage, I still don't know what happens if I get human-to-human bird flu? I mean, I'm youngish and don't have any major health issues? Will I just be sick for a week or two then recover? I mean, if bird flu caused an HPC I'd be all for it, but not if I died as that would be counter productive. ;)

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From all this media coverage, I still don't know what happens if I get human-to-human bird flu? I mean, I'm youngish and don't have any major health issues? Will I just be sick for a week or two then recover? I mean, if bird flu caused an HPC I'd be all for it, but not if I died as that would be counter productive. ;)

unfortunatly the 15 - 35 age group were the age group most likely to die from the last pandemic"Spanish flu" :o

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It's worth remembering that there's a lot of money to be made from 'bird flu', so I don't see any more reason to trust bird flu VIs than I do to trust house market VIs. Sure, maybe it will mutate into some hideous killer disease that will kill off the human race, but it seems at least as likely to mutate into something less lethal.

As the Rockall Times pointed out, I don't remember a day since I was a kid when there hasn't been some killer disease about to kill us all off. So far they've just been crying wolf.

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Don't forget that BSE was going to kill millions of people a few years back too and when it didn't the scientists looking at a potential huge loss of their research funding (wages) kept the ball in the air with the great weez that it possibly had an 'incubation' period of years. Unfortunatly statistics don't lie and that ruse fell flat on its face as well. Hardly anyone died of CJD and hardly anyone ever will, even if they ever prove a link.

Be Scared be very Scared. Thats what they want you to be.

In fact it keeps your mind off other trivial pursuits like the disaster in Iraq, the idiot George Bush, attacking Iran in April for no real good reason.

Fear controls people. HN51 is all about fear.

Migrating birds have been shown not to spread it. The Asian out breaks have followed major road trading routes, not bird routes.

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Don't forget that BSE was going to kill millions of people a few years back too and when it didn't the scientists looking at a potential huge loss of their research funding (wages) kept the ball in the air with the great weez that it possibly had an 'incubation' period of years. Unfortunatly statistics don't lie and that ruse fell flat on its face as well. Hardly anyone died of CJD and hardly anyone ever will, even if they ever prove a link.

Be Scared be very Scared. Thats what they want you to be.

In fact it keeps your mind off other trivial pursuits like the disaster in Iraq, the idiot George Bush, attacking Iran in April for no real good reason.

Fear controls people. HN51 is all about fear.

Migrating birds have been shown not to spread it. The Asian out breaks have followed major road trading routes, not bird routes.

I am afraid the fear is now based on fact:

http://www.newstarget.com/019180.html

The economy of France is under severe threat and has already sustained a massive blow to one of its largest industries.

Wild birds are now transmitting the disease:

"As the world took steps to try to prepare for such an outbreak, Romania detected new cases of the deadly H5N1 virus in a village west of Bucharest and Switzerland found more bird flu in wild birds and Turkey in poultry flocks."

(See link on opening post)

Edited by Realistbear

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From all this media coverage, I still don't know what happens if I get human-to-human bird flu? I mean, I'm youngish and don't have any major health issues? Will I just be sick for a week or two then recover? I mean, if bird flu caused an HPC I'd be all for it, but not if I died as that would be counter productive. ;)

Look, its a noble cause. Some of us live, some of us die. Its just luck and where you are standing when the chicken sneezes <_< Embrace fate -_-

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It's worth remembering that there's a lot of money to be made from 'bird flu', so I don't see any more reason to trust bird flu VIs than I do to trust house market VIs. Sure, maybe it will mutate into some hideous killer disease that will kill off the human race, but it seems at least as likely to mutate into something less lethal.

Yes but please tell me it's atleast going to kill off those pesky pigeons next door :(

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Yes but please tell me it's atleast going to kill off those pesky pigeons next door :(

The real point is that it is already disrupting major economies with France in an actual state of emergency given their reliance on poultry as the third largest producer in the world. Whether huimans are affected or not still leaves the big economic effects. Recession is bound to follow and house prices will be hardest hit as they are the most bloated of all assetts.

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Whether huimans are affected or not still leaves the big economic effects.

Sure: anyone who depends on raising chickens or ducks for food is probably going to be screwed, and that will certainly cause further effects across the economy. But that's a big difference from wiping out millions of people around the world.

At the end of the day, rapidly lethal diseases tend to die out because they kill the carriers. Hopefully bird flu will do the same.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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