sich Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Thinking of a long spread bet for next next few months - thoughts ? I'm guessing short Dollar (against anything) is a good play anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Possibly, GBP and EUR seems to be struggling for direction against the USD at the moment. I think there's a chance that we could see a sharp movement in the next few days. I think both want to go higher against USD but need some sort of catalyst. Lots of important data out tomorrow for the Eurozone countries, I think they are making a statement about their interest rates too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiterabbit Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Thinking of a long spread bet for next next few months - thoughts ? I'm guessing short Dollar (against anything) is a good play anyway. Why is it such a good play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertPaulson Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 There are many more drivers in play at the moment than just the Iranian Bourse. In any event I would not expect this to have an immediate and significant impact on the dollar, the key is whether it becomes, or is allowed to become, a sucessful exchange for hedging and speculative activity (i.e Norway sells (and minimal amounts at that) oil in euros, it does not run a bourse like IPE or NYMEX). I believe that we are on the edge of an unprecidented period of volatility in equity/FX/commodity markets. Carry Jap/US carry trades unwinding will have a negative impact on USD, but you should remember that US/Everywhere else carry trades have also been prevalent since greenspan turned on the taps in 2001 and are feeling the sqeeze much more (which makes sense if you look at the bull run of USD/Eur (i.e unwinding carry trades) since Jan05 and the bear run of Yen/USD for the same period (lengthing carry positions). The volumes involved, who will blink first and when are almost impossible to predict, but I generally see this as a very high risk period to have any kind of significant position in the markets generally (perhaps with the exception of oil, which is only going one way). I think the FX markets will make interesting and terrifying viewing in near equal measure this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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