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deano_54321

Yesterday Gutted - Today Delighted!

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I must say that yesterday I was gutted to find many of the blogs being posted about house prices still on the increase. I have started to really get down about the news of house prices APPARENTLY still going up, especially when Ive been marching round telling people what we all think is ahead.

But today I can honestly say that I'm as happy as I have been since joining the site just under a year ago. To see HPC mention in the FT is a great bit of news, and of course another bit of chance of people listening to what we have to say.

I'd just like to say "Well Done" to the whole of the HPC community. Every time I have a bit of doubt about this subject, this site gives me the kick up the butt i need to see what really is surely going to happen. (Not like I'm going to go and buy somewhere when its near impossible!)

Thanks all, :)

Deano

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In the time I have used the site which is comparable it's keptmy hope up.

Backed up I must add - it's a long road with no turning back - or with a back-pack if houses continue to be so far off financially. It's good to know we're not on our own.

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My faith in a crash has wobbled too these past 6 weeks...........

even though deep down i know it'll be slow coming given the benign economic backdrop...........

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My faith in a crash has wobbled too these past 6 weeks...........

even though deep down i know it'll be slow coming given the benign economic backdrop...........

Yes, i know how you feel.

I think the positive thing is that even if people lose faith, they are saying "Sod it, I'll never own a house, so be it" instead of "Sod it, I'll buy a house now". The end result is houses wont get sold. Somebody told me on here recently that times will probably get worse before they get better, and on reflection i think they were right. A part of the forthcoming crash will be caused by people basically just giving up.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Most users ever online was 827 on Today, 12:27 PM

That's quite a leap from the previous record, maybe that FT mention has had something to do with it?

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HAVE WE JUST SEEN that "crescendo of Bullish consensus",

which often comes RIGHT before a market slides?

Has the last gasp of blind bullishness expresses itself?

If so, it may be downhill from here

Happens all the time in the SM eh Bubb? ....blow off top :)

Got one happening here in Geraldton WA as well. Absolute panic buying. Gotten completely out of whack.

The thing is, this place has a history of deep cyclical lows, perhaps the worst of all Oz cities. The last one was only in 97 -2001.

Short memories <_<

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]Most users ever online was 827 on Today, 12:27 PM[/b]

That's quite a leap from the previous record, maybe that FT mention has had something to do with it? [bart of Darkness]

Apparently due to the forum server clock being set back an hour and the counter accumulating rather more users online than was actually the case. It was relatively busy though.

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I must say that yesterday I was gutted to find many of the blogs being posted about house prices still on the increase. I have started to really get down about the news of house prices APPARENTLY still going up, especially when Ive been marching round telling people what we all think is ahead.

But today I can honestly say that I'm as happy as I have been since joining the site just under a year ago. To see HPC mention in the FT is a great bit of news, and of course another bit of chance of people listening to what we have to say.

I'd just like to say "Well Done" to the whole of the HPC community. Every time I have a bit of doubt about this subject, this site gives me the kick up the butt i need to see what really is surely going to happen. (Not like I'm going to go and buy somewhere when its near impossible!)

Thanks all, :)

Deano

I feel this way exactly. It's a bit of a rollercoaster at times.

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I feel this way exactly. It's a bit of a rollercoaster at times.

If you focus on the day-to-day headlines you *will* find yourself on an emotional rollercoaster.

This is simply short term manipulation by an industry that is desperate to avoid the inevitable.

In the big picture the housing market is now in serious trouble, and the economy is well on track for a recession.

Rather focus on ways to get yourself through this in the way that is best for you. Read, learn about things you don't understand, try to learn new skills, spend your weekends *not* worrying about the ludicrous amount of debt you currrently need to buy a house.

Quietly laugh at people who tell you you *must* get on the housing ladder at any cost. You know something they don't.

It's probably going to take a good 5 years to play out, so find a way to make the best of that time.

Edited by BandWagon

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Guest Winners and Losers

Could not agree more. Being of nervous disposition I waver between suicidal and homicidal. It is hard sometimes to keep the faith when throughout all of the spin. But, hey, I can't buy a house anyway so what have I got to lose by waiting. It can't go on forever. At some point it has to reach a ceiling. Just keep telling yourself that it is not the be all and end all to life, you just think it is because it has been 'spun' that way. Live each day as if its your last!

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The news in the early part of 2006 seemed to be almost non-existent about housing and the economy, the VI's just seemed to be reporting the same news. I too was becoming very perplexed that nothing was really happening in the housing market. Now into March and the real news is starting to unfold. I think we have started into a new Era, watch this space over the next 6 months when the media get hold of negative things happening in the housing market ..... or so I hope

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Most users ever online was 827 on Today, 12:27 PM

That's quite a leap from the previous record, maybe that FT mention has had something to do with it?

Yes - a huge number of people viewing HPC - Just watch out for a massive influx of VI's spewing their poison bile on here during the next few weeks though - we're their nemesis don't forget... :D

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HAVE WE JUST SEEN that "crescendo of Bullish consensus",

which often comes RIGHT before a market slides?

Has the last gasp of blind bullishness expresses itself?

If so, it may be downhill from here

fasten those seat belts... are we at the top of the big dipper? :blink:

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Guest Winners and Losers

fasten those seat belts... are we at the top of the big dipper? :blink:

I love a good rollercoaster ride! I'll be in the carriage at the front. :)

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If you focus on the day-to-day headlines you *will* find yourself on an emotional rollercoaster.

This is simply short term manipulation by an industry that is desperate to avoid the inevitable.

In the big picture the housing market is now in serious trouble, and the economy is well on track for a recession.

Rather focus on ways to get yourself through this in the way that is best for you. Read, learn about things you don't understand, try to learn new skills, spend your weekends *not* worrying about the ludicrous amount of debt you currrently need to buy a house.

Quietly laugh at people who tell you you *must* get on the housing ladder at any cost. You know something they don't.

It's probably going to take a good 5 years to play out, so find a way to make the best of that time.

Thanks - we're in a very good position not to buy a house so this really is good advice. It's a female nesting instinct I have (we've got 2 small children) that makes me want a house sooner rather than later. My head does rule my heart though.....

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Whilst I've never doubted that prices would return to trend, I was beginning to wonder if the madness would continue a while longer.

It now looks most likely that stagnation is coming an end and the correction is beginning. Which puts us at the end of the beginning as someone once said ;)

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Caution:

It is too early to congratulate the Bears.

We need some confirmation from :

+ UK Builders breaking their uptrends WITH VOLUME,

+ A further slowing of transaction volume,

+ Tightening of bank lending standards

We have seen a few false starts to the slide, and there remains the risk this may be another.

can only hope at the moment - they appear to be getting slacker - btl 100% rent cover only required down from 125%

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It now looks most likely that stagnation is coming an end and the correction is beginning. Which puts us at the end of the beginning as someone once said ;)

Oh I hope so, I'm just concerned that prices dropping with only be proportionate to interest rate rises when they come (Hurry up Japan!) and this will leave the vast majority of us with the same monthly bill from the mortgage lender, and no better off! - what will become of this site then, I can imagine all the STR's loving it, but will the rest of us calling the bottom of the market, buying, then being screwed by interest rates of 8% or more - the long term average?

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What do you think will make the banks tighten?

Level of defaults?

Global liquidity drying up and the end of the carry trade?

I am concerned as they are currently lending more and more to keep the market afloat. How long and what will it take for them to stop this and reduce the supply of money into the market?

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What do you think will make the banks tighten?

Level of defaults?

Global liquidity drying up and the end of the carry trade?

I am concerned as they are currently lending more and more to keep the market afloat. How long and what will it take for them to stop this and reduce the supply of money into the market?

Banks are posting big profits from the last year, and they are going to want to hit those targets again to get those nice large christmas bonuses we all heard about, so we will see more and more creative ways of lending - the new 'affordability matrix' neatly avoids the typical income ratios when working out lending amounts. I expect to see more of the same, and lots of scouring FSA guidelines to find loopholes in much the same way as corporate tax lawyers do.

I don't think they can avoid high interest rates in the end though. Just how high is the question?

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I must say that yesterday I was gutted to find many of the blogs being posted about house prices still on the increase. I have started to really get down about the news of house prices APPARENTLY still going up, especially when Ive been marching round telling people what we all think is ahead.

But today I can honestly say that I'm as happy as I have been since joining the site just under a year ago. To see HPC mention in the FT is a great bit of news, and of course another bit of chance of people listening to what we have to say.

I'd just like to say "Well Done" to the whole of the HPC community. Every time I have a bit of doubt about this subject, this site gives me the kick up the butt i need to see what really is surely going to happen. (Not like I'm going to go and buy somewhere when its near impossible!)

Thanks all, :)

Deano

What you and others who subscribe to HPC mentality need to be aware of is:

You succeed in your wishes for a HPC - 20/30% reduction (some want more!!). Consumer confidence would completely disappear. A major and disastrous recession would occur. Millions of jobs would be lost PROBABLY INCLUDING YOURS. Houses would be snapped up by foreign investors not FTB's. NOT ONLY WILL YOU NOT HAVE YOUR OWN HOUSE, YOU WOULD PROBABLY LOSE YOUR JOB AND WITH IT ANY PROSPECT OF EVER OWNING A HOUSE.

Before you start celebrating an economic recession, think long and hard about the outcome. The aims and objectives of this forum are totally irresponsible and should they succeed, those responsible for this site will need to answer for it's actions. They will have much to answer for.

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Property values have never survived a recession: 3x-3.5x after! :lol:

But you're right sun reader. After the last house price boom up to 5x+ salary in 1989 thousands upon thousands of first time buyers lost out their chance of ever owning a house come 1996.

We are highly responsible, and frequently lament the fact that world interest rates are not high enough to cover world inflation, and that this means the old folk will see their life savings eroded by the resulting inflation, meaning that we'll have to sell Sun Readers into slavery to cover them for their Horlicks.

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What you and others who subscribe to HPC mentality need to be aware of is:

You succeed in your wishes for a HPC - 20/30% reduction (some want more!!). Consumer confidence would completely disappear. A major and disastrous recession would occur. Millions of jobs would be lost PROBABLY INCLUDING YOURS. Houses would be snapped up by foreign investors not FTB's. NOT ONLY WILL YOU NOT HAVE YOUR OWN HOUSE, YOU WOULD PROBABLY LOSE YOUR JOB AND WITH IT ANY PROSPECT OF EVER OWNING A HOUSE.

Before you start celebrating an economic recession, think long and hard about the outcome. The aims and objectives of this forum are totally irresponsible and should they succeed, those responsible for this site will need to answer for it's actions. They will have much to answer for.

Oh right...the recession will be all our fault then :lol:

I was tickled to see the FT describle HPC as a web-site dedicated to bringing about a crash.

Thats right chaps - its all going to be down to us. Nothing to do with the idiots, the get rich quick BTL's, nor the massive combined media force of the VI's ramping the market at every opportunity.

I SAY...BRING IT ON!

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You misunderstand. It's not the "crash" that causes the problem, it's the formation of the debt bubble that causes it. The "crash" just stops the problem getting worse and paves the way for things to continue on a stable footing.

If the bubble were to continue more and more of peoples future income would get sucked into it until there was nothing left to spend on anything.

The economic trap has already been set. It will go off. The sooner it does the smaller the eventual fall out. Continuation of the current situation just makes the eventual fall out worse. Allthough characterising the fallout from the current bubble as "small" will be incongrous to say the least.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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