bandylegs Report post Posted February 28, 2006 Has anyone got a Real House Prices graph for Ireland ? Looks to me like the country is heading for economic oblivion. They will be in decline for many years, whilst other Eurozone countries like Germany will pull out of the doldrums and become successful. And Germany's success will be built on REAL manufacturing and their REAL expertise. In many ways, I admire the Germans' attitude. They are presently prudent savers, they have a great car industry and technological innovation. What have we got in comparison ? That's right, just a load of hot air in the biggest asset bubble ever. Where's the pin ? That can't be right surely, as Mr Brown says if they followed in our example then they could enjoy miracle growth in Germany as well. (Disclaimer – Sarcasm.) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
walktothewater Report post Posted February 28, 2006 "mortgage mania"!!! Is that for real? yep. It's a two week thing, starting end of March I think. Can't be sure of the dates though, cos I was staring in slackjawed amazement at the word "mania" Not only were TSB having their "mania" event but I also noticed "get a free hamper" just for applying for a car loan, and come and speak to "Elaine/Rob for all your borrowing needs and enter to win a car". I thought I was in a comedy sketch, I was expecting a truck to show up and two East European guys start shovelling out cash onto the floor. Oh yeah, the tag line for their 100% mortgage is "yes you CAN have it all".... parabolic.... Japanese.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smell the Fear Report post Posted February 28, 2006 I was expecting a truck to show up and two East European guys start shovelling out cash onto the floor. parabolic.... Japanese.... That had me laughing out loud - great image! Does anyone know the song "Turning Japanese" by the Vapors? You should play it at top volume, windows down, driving around Dublin. I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
walktothewater Report post Posted February 28, 2006 It seems my predictions of things going parabolic are, unfortunately, becoming reality. http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0228/houses.html Prices rose 1.2% in January alone. and 10.2% yoy. Irish property prices are accelerating wildly. There's a 'race against rates' mentality, as FTBs scramble to buy and lock-in rates. TSB permanent bank is having a two week "mortgage mania" event to help them do it. Buyers are literally queuing up overnight outside uncompleted developments accepting whatever price the developer offers. internationally ireland now stands virtually alone with it's property mania Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flash Report post Posted February 28, 2006 That had me laughing out loud - great image! Does anyone know the song "Turning Japanese" by the Vapors? You should play it at top volume, windows down, driving around Dublin. I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Very appropriate...especially since it is about being a banker. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scooter Report post Posted February 28, 2006 Has anyone got a Real House Prices graph for Ireland ? Looks to me like the country is heading for economic oblivion. They will be in decline for many years, whilst other Eurozone countries like Germany will pull out of the doldrums and become successful. And Germany's success will be built on REAL manufacturing and their REAL expertise. In many ways, I admire the Germans' attitude. They are presently prudent savers, they have a great car industry and technological innovation. What have we got in comparison ? That's right, just a load of hot air in the biggest asset bubble ever. Where's the pin ? I agree as far as manufacturing but we have a superb financial services and legal sector that more than pulls its weight in terms of tax revenues. I understand a lot of people hate the City or think it is not valid becasue it deals in intangibles but it keeps the country going, including areas other than the Southeast which rely on public money such as Scotland and the North East. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flash Report post Posted February 28, 2006 "mortgage mania"!!! Is that for real? God help us.... Mania: 1. an irrational but irresistible motive for a belief or action 2. a mood disorder; an affective disorder in which the victim tends to respond excessively and sometimes violently Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smell the Fear Report post Posted February 28, 2006 I agree as far as manufacturing but we have a superb financial services and legal sector that more than pulls its weight in terms of tax revenues. I understand a lot of people hate the City or think it is not valid becasue it deals in intangibles but it keeps the country going, including areas other than the Southeast which rely on public money such as Scotland and the North East. This is often wheeled out, but I recall someone pointing out that only 3% of GDP comes from the City. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Warwickshire Lad Report post Posted February 28, 2006 Prices rose 1.2% in January alone. and 10.2% yoy. Has anyone got a Real House Prices graph for Ireland ? Looks to me like the country is heading for economic oblivion. They will be in decline for many years, whilst other Eurozone countries like Germany will pull out of the doldrums and become successful. And Germany's success will be built on REAL manufacturing and their REAL expertise. In many ways, I admire the Germans' attitude. They are presently prudent savers, they have a great car industry and technological innovation. What have we got in comparison ? That's right, just a load of hot air in the biggest asset bubble ever. Where's the pin ? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cupidstunt Report post Posted February 28, 2006 Buyers are literally queuing up overnight outside uncompleted developments accepting whatever price the developer offers. They'll be knocking 'em down in a few years to grow potatoes! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scooter Report post Posted February 28, 2006 This is often wheeled out, but I recall someone pointing out that only 3% of GDP comes from the City. I could only find this from a Treasury site. financial services generated £19billion, whcih looks like about 2% plus 1.4% for legal services. How tiny do you think the manufacturing contribution might be or anything else individually? Financial Services The UK financial services sector is the single largest contributor to the UK balance of payments. Net UK financial services exports were a record £19bn in 2004 - 9% up on the previous year. The sector employed 1.1 million people in the UK at the end of 2004. Legal Services Legal services contributed £13.6bn or 1.4% to the UK's GDP in 2003. There were over 267,000 people employed in UK legal services in 2003. Exports generated by UK law firms totalled £1.9 bn in 2004 - three times that of 1995. This is often wheeled out, but I recall someone pointing out that only 3% of GDP comes from the City. About 2.5% GDP from FS according to the City of London site (yes, I know, evil lying capitalists...) : Key facts about the City of London and the 'Square Mile' The City of London is the world’s leading international financial and business centre – a global powerhouse at the heart of the UK’s financial services. Financial and professional business services made a net contribution to the UK's current account of £19bn in 2004, a significant amount of which was generated within the Square Mile. The City contributes around 2.5% to the UK’s GDP and 13% to London’s GDP, while London contributes over 18% to the UK’s GDP. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
undersupply Report post Posted February 28, 2006 That had me laughing out loud - great image! Does anyone know the song "Turning Japanese" by the Vapors? You should play it at top volume, windows down, driving around Dublin. I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Or the after effects of the Japanese crash where businessmen used to drive their cars off cliffs beautifully summarised by The Pixies: "Wave Of Mutilation" cease to resist, giving my goodbye drive my car into the ocean you'll think i'm dead, but i sail away on a wave of mutilation a wave wave i've kissed mermaids, rode the el nino walked the sand with the crustaceans could find my way to mariana on a wave of mutilation, wave of mutilation wave of mutilation wave wave of mutilation wave Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pobby Report post Posted February 28, 2006 Just back from Ireland this weekend.you would not believe house prices around Dublin.Ex-council house for sale approx.460,000 euro!It would also appear that wages are on the whole rather less than here. Go to Belfast however,or indeed Ulster in general and house prices are far cheaper.A semi in belfast around £110,000. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BandWagon Report post Posted February 28, 2006 Why don't we have more people from Ireland commenting on this site? Surely there must be people over there who are beginning to understand that people have lost the plot. Surely some of them have looked at the lessons from Japan and realised they've gone the same way? Goodbye Celtic Tiger... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimmy James Report post Posted February 28, 2006 The City may contribute a lot of tax revenue (not as much as they avoid mind you), but that doesn't stop them being a distortion of basic senses of justice and renumeration for a fair days work. See Ezra Pound for more details, (just before the slightly wayward Mussolini broadcasts). Anyways I'm sure being a tax haven brings in a lot of money into Guernsey, it doesn't stop Guernsey being a contemptible bunch of bloodsuckers leeching off the international common man. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smell the Fear Report post Posted February 28, 2006 The City contributes around 2.5% to the UK’s GDP and 13% to London’s GDP, while London contributes over 18% to the UK’s GDP. So, even less than I thought. Am I alone in being singularly unimpressed by this, given that many people call it the engineroom of the UK economy etc? If we lost it, it seems we would survive ok? Don't get me wrong, I am not anti-City. I used to work there, and believe that if these services are to be provided in a global economy, then the UK may as well benefit. But it does seem to have a reputation 100 times bigger than its reality. I think the City is a boon for the small number of people who make a huge amount of cash from it. For everyone else, it may as well not exist. Why don't we have more people from Ireland commenting on this site? Surely there must be people over there who are beginning to understand that people have lost the plot. Surely some of them have looked at the lessons from Japan and realised they've gone the same way? Goodbye Celtic Tiger... Apparently there is a rumour in Ireland that you can be excommunicated by the Pope if you post on here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jonpo Report post Posted February 28, 2006 (edited) The City? - well there has to be some sort of a silver lining to living in a place where a pint of beer will cost you 3 quid 50. + 2 bed flats cost 350K. you think inflation is bad now? you try paying 1 quid for a 330ml can of freaking diet coke. I know there is some reason why im paying over 1700 quid a month Tax to live in a shoebox I don't own, In a town that is souless, where I work 6 days a week. and girls make up about 15% of the workforce. yeah maybe your right and we are all better off without it. I dunno maybe I am "a distortion of basic senses of justice and renumeration for a fair days work" but it doesn't mean I have any kind of a better quality of life than you. beleive me If I could telework from Bangalore. I would... at least I wouldn't be screwed out out most of my wages there. London is one of the most expensive cities in the world to live. London prices + 40% tax + 1700 p.a council tax + 4000 p.a "service charge" on your flat. and suddenly your not feeling so well off. Edited February 28, 2006 by jonpo Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CrashConnoisseur Report post Posted February 28, 2006 Looks to me like the country is heading for economic oblivion. They will be in decline for many years, whilst other Eurozone countries like Germany will pull out of the doldrums and become successful. [Warwickshire Lad] Indeed, and since Ireland is subject to the same one-size-doesn't-fit-all interest rate and exchange rate they'll most likely be hit by both rising as Germany and maybe France recover -- a double whammy on steroids. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
uro_who Report post Posted February 28, 2006 London contributes over 18% to the UK’s GDP. Is it because London is the best place to live in the UK, full of the most intellegent, richest geezers living in streets paved with gold? Or could this be anything to do with the fact that London represents 20% of the UK's population? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuyingBear Report post Posted March 1, 2006 I could only find this from a Treasury site. financial services generated £19billion, whcih looks like about 2% plus 1.4% for legal services. How tiny do you think the manufacturing contribution might be or anything else individually? 16% of GDP and 13% of employment. The problem is that when foreign companies buy German kit they often drop into Frankfurt to sort out the finance I have nothing against the City, but I wonder if it can grow 8 times in size as a percentage of GDP on its own back, Brown has been talking about this recently. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
needle Report post Posted March 1, 2006 Maybe they'll be going Irish in Japan. Ever thought of that? Turning Irish, I think I'm turning Irish, I really think so..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuyingBear Report post Posted March 1, 2006 Maybe they'll be going Irish in Japan. Ever thought of that? Turning Irish, I think I'm turning Irish, I really think so..... Possibly Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AssetIndigestion Report post Posted March 1, 2006 Is 10% YOY really going japanese ? Remember back in the late 90's in Ireland we witnessed acceleration to 30% YOY. That looked a lot more japanese to me but here we are 8 years on - with no correction and hpi still present (but at a more modest rate). A correction will come eventually but who knows when ? No signs of it yet :angry: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
walktothewater Report post Posted March 1, 2006 Is 10% YOY really going japanese ? Remember back in the late 90's in Ireland we witnessed acceleration to 30% YOY. That looked a lot more japanese to me but here we are 8 years on - with no correction and hpi still present (but at a more modest rate). A correction will come eventually but who knows when ? No signs of it yet :angry: Disagree. This 'blow off' top is erriely similar to stock market behaviour. The behaviour at Adamstown a few weekends ago (for non-irish readers: a large "new town", greenfield, development in West Dublin) has spooked me. The FEAR evident in the buyers queuing up overnight to throw their brand new mortgage debt (some 100% no doubt) at the developer.... In the last week or so I have become seriously worried about where to put my assets. I'm considering going up to 20% gold/prec metals. I could give you techincal or fundamental reasons for my fear at the moment, but at the end of the day my instinct is saying go to the sidelines. Problem is even the sidelines (cash) may not be completely safe.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jimmy6000 Report post Posted March 1, 2006 I agree WTTW, this fear evident in Irish house buyers is very reminiscent of pre stock market crash activity - like birds acting crazy before a big storm. A load of appartments in Sandyford called "the Edges" I think, were sold out in a few hours last week - and they will not even be completed for a year or two....people were queueing for days! I believe things will come to a halt, I am getting out of the Irish property scene, but I just cannot foresee exactly what it will be that invokes negative sentiment. Surely the currently predicted interest rate rises from ECB are too small to have any impact in the short term - apparently all banks build in some tolerances when doling out mortgages - most people will easily absorb up to a 1% hike.....and how long will that take to come about ? What ultimately caused the UK and Japanese markets to go south? Was it interest rates or a sudden mass phase of enlightenment Jesus lads, the bricks only cost 10,000 WTF are we paying 500,000 ? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
