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Realistbear

R I C S: Ftbs Can Get Stuffed We Don't Need Them

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http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,3040...2,00.html?f=rss

RICS say that BTLers are buying up houses again as the rental market is fuelled by FTBs who have essentially given up due to soaring house prices. In other words, FTBs are no longer a factor in generating incocome for RICs members and the BTLers they make money on.

Arrogant attitude to say the least. But are BTLers returning to a market that is going down and where rents barely cover sky high mortgages with increased IR on the way? And who is going to pay the increased rents as unemployment rises and inflation takes money away to pay for other things such as council tax and fuel?

RICs will be humbled very soon. :angry:

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Good

Much better to see BTLers loosing money than FTBers IMHO.

How do the RICS think this is going to end up? Are BTLers going to keep making income losses for the next 10 years in the hope of a capital gain at the end?

BTLers aren't stupid, well not that stupid anyway. As soon as they see that properties have stopped going up they will be out of the market like a shot. With no new money coming in from FTBers or BTLers and a flood of ex-BTL for sale, which way do you think prices are going to go?

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Guest Riser

RICS reinforcing the steriotype that those renting are some sort of sub class excluded from the wealth that home ownership inevetably brings.

God forbid that many of those renting are actually STR or smart FTBs who are protecting their money and deposits by simply waiting for the over inflated proerty market to crash.

Arrogant PRICS

More and more people are looking to rent homes as property gets too expensive to buy.

The market has hit a four-and-a-half year high as the high cost of buying a place of

your own has left many people unable to afford to do it.

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You don't know that.....

Just another one of your sweeping statements.....

"Rics will be humbled."

IMHO, of course! Or are opinions not allowed?

You might not be bored waiting much longer :lol:

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Reading the comments from RICS makes me think that FTB v BTL will soon become a hot political issue in the UK.

I don't think the government will do something just yet. But if they decide to we should get plenty of warning. First, MP's will start briefing the media on why rising house prices are "bad news" and how FTB's "can't get on the ladder." This will prepare public opinion for what they will do next...

..Tax BTL, or at least deny the landlord relief on interest payments.

Anyone have any thoughts on how this may play out?

I don't think you could legislate against BTL's specifically and why would the government want to?

Maybe the government would prefer more people renting as they would traditionally vote Labour and maybe the Govt will introduce incentives to encourage more BTL - say increasing the capital gains relief taper? or allowing losses to be offset against personal income.

EDIT This is a bit odd, I posted this at 12.17 but it says 11.17? Anyone got any idea what has happened?

Edited by Given Up

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Guest Riser

You don't know that.....

Just another one of your sweeping statements.....

Just call it intuition B)

Signal_NationalQ405.gif Crash 2006 anyone !

post-1619-1141128995.gif

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Just call it intuition B)

Signal_NationalQ405.gif Crash 2006 anyone !

I think that chart ought to be made into an official HPC Tee-shirt! It is a reflection of the fundamental truth that the economy is cyclical and that uptrends do not last forever, never have, never will.

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The evidence of a crash is always in hindsight. The house market is like a roller-coaster. It goes up the big hill, starts to slow as it reaches the top, you begin to hear the creaks and strains as the summit is reached, the momentum down the other side starts very slowly, almost imperceptibly, the wheels start to rattle a little louder and a faint breeze if felt on the face, the speed increases a little more and the sinking feelings begin, its too late to do anything as the downhill rush has begun, the hands grip the safety bar and the wind in the face turns into a hurricane, you plummet downwards and your mind races wondering if the coaster will derail under such forces of gravity, you wish you had never taken the ride . . . . When its all over you look back and THEN you see what a ride it was! Hindsight is the best teacher.

And just like a roller coaster - going with your analogy - surely the train comes up in a peak again? Roller coasters never NORMALLY keep plummeting......and many will be able to sit out any HPC just like they did last time....Perhaps it will be different this time.......? (yes it could be bombs, war etc)

Rental demand is up so the article states.....and with projections of 800,000 net immigration into London over next 10 yrs.....and that’s not counting the ones here illegally. Did you see the news y/day - drug gang of 12 sent to prison and nearly all here illegally........i bet the numbers are staggering and they all need somewhere to live?? Some BTl's have good accountants and a loss can be a good thing and put against profits in other areas. Plus some are in it for the long haul.......?

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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Something has gone wrong with the times it's 12.30 where I am (UK) but it says 11.30.

Could this be why there are so many users? 800?

Edited by Given Up

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The RICS have lost the plot. Their leadership is making a huge mistake in not encouraging their members to “value properties without fear or favour” according to a balance of fundamental and market value. The amount of RICS surveyors that have been valuing 2 bed new builds at whatever they need to be valued at to keep the VI’s (lenders/developers) sweet, is a scandal. Any RICS surveyor who is valuing 2 bed new builds and doesn’t establish: the asking price in relation to the actually price being paid (net of sweeteners e.g. cash backs etc), three like for like comparables and how many other units remain to be sold in the development/surrounding area, which may undermine the value of the property, aren’t doing their job! The RICS need to start displaying some professional integrity and in doing so they will be protecting both the lenders and to some degree the last wave of mug buyers!

Pablo Silver or Lead?

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I think that chart ought to be made into an official HPC Tee-shirt! It is a reflection of the fundamental truth that the economy is cyclical and that uptrends do not last forever, never have, never will.

Just a thought, if a btl'er goes bankrupt what happens to the tennants?

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Guest boredwaiting

I think that chart ought to be made into an official HPC Tee-shirt! It is a reflection of the fundamental truth that the economy is cyclical and that uptrends do not last forever, never have, never will.

That graph has been around a while, it shows that there should be a crash if history repeats itself (which i agree it normally does) but it certainly doesn't show beyond all reasonable doubt that there will be a crash - that down slope of the peak could be a nice shallow gradient.......

We don't know, a lot of the same arguments keep coming up but there is very little indication of any crash. In fact if you go by the trend of the media (which I know is biased but a house price crash right now would be based on perception as nothing has changed fundamentally) it's fine to buy a house and that is what the masses are seeing. I know people who are buying and upgrading at the moment, and the house around my way are selling just fine and near their asking price.

I haven't seen any evidence that there is going to be a crash - Just that there should be one.... Which means I don't get to buy a house.

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You don't know that.....

Just another one of your sweeping statements.....

Nobody on here "knows" anything really. It is a discussion forum. What do you want; everyone to have to stick IMHO at the end of every fecking sentence?

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Just a thought, if a btl'er goes bankrupt what happens to the tennants?

Thats a very good point - im planning to try and get rental discount by offering a few months in advance (like 12 or 18)

Whats the legal position if i pay up front and the landlord goes bankrupt?

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http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,3040...2,00.html?f=rss

RICS say that BTLers are buying up houses again as the rental market is fuelled by FTBs who have essentially given up due to soaring house prices. In other words, FTBs are no longer a factor in generating incocome for RICs members and the BTLers they make money on.

Arrogant attitude to say the least. But are BTLers returning to a market that is going down and where rents barely cover sky high mortgages with increased IR on the way? And who is going to pay the increased rents as unemployment rises and inflation takes money away to pay for other things such as council tax and fuel?

RICs will be humbled very soon. :angry:

This sort of reminds me of the stereotypical case of a middle aged man who leaves his wife for a woman of 20 or so. At the start he's incredibly smug until after a short while the new woman decides that this was a mistake as she's never going to spend the rest of her life with him and leaves.

Seriously though, if the market tips towards BTL then the fluidity of the market increases as BTL landlords can sell any time they want without having to find another place to live.

Billy Shears

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That graph has been around a while, it shows that there should be a crash if history repeats itself (which i agree it normally does) but it certainly doesn't show beyond all reasonable doubt that there will be a crash - that down slope of the peak could be a nice shallow gradient.......

We don't know, a lot of the same arguments keep coming up but there is very little indication of any crash. In fact if you go by the trend of the media (which I know is biased but a house price crash right now would be based on perception as nothing has changed fundamentally) it's fine to buy a house and that is what the masses are seeing. I know people who are buying and upgrading at the moment, and the house around my way are selling just fine and near their asking price.

I haven't seen any evidence that there is going to be a crash - Just that there should be one.... Which means I don't get to buy a house.

The evidence of a crash is always in hindsight. The house market is like a roller-coaster. It goes up the big hill, starts to slow as it reaches the top, you begin to hear the creaks and strains as the summit is reached, the momentum down the other side starts very slowly, almost imperceptibly, the wheels start to rattle a little louder and a faint breeze is felt on the face, the speed increases a little more and the sinking feelings begin, its too late to do anything as the downhill rush has begun, the hands grip the safety bar and the wind in the face turns into a hurricane, you plummet downwards and your mind races wondering if the coaster will derail under such forces of gravity, you wish you had never taken the ride . . . . When its all over you look back and THEN you see what a ride it was! Hindsight is the best teacher.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest boredwaiting

The evidence of a crash is always in hindsight. The house market is like a roller-coaster. It goes up the big hill, starts to slow as it reaches the top, you begin to hear the creaks and strains as the summit is reached, the momentum down the other side starts very slowly, almost imperceptibly, the wheels start to rattle a little louder and a faint breeze if felt on the face, the speed increases a little more and the sinking feelings begin, its too late to do anything as the downhill rush has begun, the hands grip the safety bar and the wind in the face turns into a hurricane, you plummet downwards and your mind races wondering if the coaster will derail under such forces of gravity, you wish you had never taken the ride . . . . When its all over you look back and THEN you see what a ride it was! Hindsight is the best teacher.

With that in mind, i had another look at the graph. You're right, if the market does drop like it has in the past there is no getting off - it'll happen too fast....

But I'm not getting my hopes up. I'll just take it as it is at the moment.

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Guest Riser

The evidence of a crash is always in hindsight. The house market is like a roller-coaster. It goes up the big hill, starts to slow as it reaches the top, you begin to hear the creaks and strains as the summit is reached, the momentum down the other side starts very slowly, almost imperceptibly, the wheels start to rattle a little louder and a faint breeze if felt on the face, the speed increases a little more and the sinking feelings begin, its too late to do anything as the downhill rush has begun, the hands grip the safety bar and the wind in the face turns into a hurricane, you plummet downwards and your mind races wondering if the coaster will derail under such forces of gravity, you wish you had never taken the ride . . . . When its all over you look back and THEN you see what a ride it was! Hindsight is the best teacher.

Very poetic and very accurate, I can't wait for the screaming to start :lol::lol:

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Reading the comments from RICS makes me think that FTB v BTL will soon become a hot political issue in the UK.

I don't think the government will do something just yet. But if they decide to we should get plenty of warning. First, MP's will start briefing the media on why rising house prices are "bad news" and how FTB's "can't get on the ladder." This will prepare public opinion for what they will do next...

..Tax BTL, or at least deny the landlord relief on interest payments.

Anyone have any thoughts on how this may play out?

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Guest Riser

Can anyone explain to me please what that graph is showing.

I like the steep up and down bits and the pretty colours but.

National Price Trend vs Annual Change - what exactly does that mean? (Isn't the 'annual change' part of the 'trend'?)

Inflation adjusted annual HPI 0.7% - is this saying that, after allowing for inflation, the actual increase in house prices over the last 50 years or so has been 0.7% per annum?

The graph shows the % deviation of current house prices from the long term trend. All of the data is derived from Nationwides own data which shows a long term trend of 2.4%, and is adjusted for inflation due to the length of time it covers.

The 0.7% rise is the difference between the price quoted by Nationwide Q4 2005 and the inflation adjusted price quoted for Q5 2004.

If annual house price increases were to match inflation then the house price line would decline very slowly around 2.4% per year eventually passing through the long term average price (zero) in around 10 to 15 years time but I can't see that hapening.

The key give away in the chart is the HPI line which triggers a buy or sell signal each time it passes through zero, once we get past this current small rally in asking prices later in the Spring due to last yars ate cut it will be all systems go for the crash :D

800 users !! Could we be experiencing a Denial of Crash attack :)

Edited by Riser

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Reading the comments from RICS makes me think that FTB v BTL will soon become a hot political issue in the UK.

I don't think the government will do something just yet. But if they decide to we should get plenty of warning. First, MP's will start briefing the media on why rising house prices are "bad news" and how FTB's "can't get on the ladder." This will prepare public opinion for what they will do next...

..Tax BTL, or at least deny the landlord relief on interest payments.

Anyone have any thoughts on how this may play out?

As an extreme example, if the government thought that economic meltdown was on the way, they could change the laws so that non-paying tenants couldn't be evicted in under two years or so. This would mean that a sudden rise in unemployment wouldn't be followed by a sudden rise in housing benefit as the BTL brigade would effectively become the providers of social housing, not the government.

In case anybody's wondering, I don't believe that this would actually happen.

Billy Shears

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I guess all those FTB's who have suddenly decided to rent have been living in tents up until now.

Otherwise, how do they make a dent in the rental market? <_<

Edited by geneer

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And just like a roller coaster - going with your analogy - surely the train comes up in a peak again? Roller coasters never NORMALLY keep plummeting......

Rollercoasters come to a halt at the level they started from. Then everyone gets off. Some say "that was fun, but it was fairly expensive". Others stagger off, spewing their guts up: "Never again - I feel awful!".

And some of them will vow never to get on a rollercoaster again. ;)

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Can anyone explain to me please what that graph is showing.

I like the steep up and down bits and the pretty colours but.

National Price Trend vs Annual Change - what exactly does that mean? (Isn't the 'annual change' part of the 'trend'?)

Inflation adjusted annual HPI 0.7% - is this saying that, after allowing for inflation, the actual increase in house prices over the last 50 years or so has been 0.7% per annum?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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