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Jason

Nationwide Feb -0.2% Mom, +3.7% Yoy

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Average Price Now £158,573

Nationwide seem to have changed their tune... Shot themseleves in the foot with a rate cut?

"In conclusion, the strengthening of the housing market over the last 6 months does not detract from underlying weaknesses. Affordability among first-time buyers remains stretched and continued uncertainty over the economy's strength makes strong rises in house prices over the coming months unlikely. While high current levels of mortgage approvals still suggest the existence of some demand pressure in the market, February's 0.2% fall in house prices is a reminder that fundamental drivers remain weak."

Full report: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb2006.pdf

News:

Reuters: http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...00-GMT-TUES.XML

BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4754642.stm

Edited by Jason

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If this continues over the next few months I expect it will add fuel to BTLers selling up their properties!

Best to get the properties on before Easter I feel!!

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Guest Riser

Just opened a small short on Sterling against the Dollar as the markets seem hyper sensitive to housing news.

Nationwide know that the only way the housing bubble can be maintained is through further cuts in interest rates so they are now playing down the potential for further HPI. The VIs may be the authors of their own doom by over stating rises in the New Year causing the MPC to react by cutting rates later this Spring.

Edited by Riser

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The continued rise of

our 3 month average since October 2005 still shows strength in the market and, significantly, this

discouraged the MPC from cutting interest rates in February.

I thought that the supposedly independant MPC supposedly used inflation as their sole remit for setting IRs.

Obviously Nationwide have more control than we thought :lol::lol::lol::lol:

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If its a seasonally adjusted -0.2% in February it could be -0.5% in March...! B)

IMHO everyone should read the report. It is incredibly bearish even down to the real HP chart going back to 1957.

Bring it on! :D

Am I right also in thinking they've got rid of Fionulla Earlley or whatever her name is and replaced her with someone who speaks the truth.

Edited by Financial Planner

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"In conclusion, the strengthening of the housing market over the last 6 months does not detract from underlying weaknesses. Affordability among first-time buyers remains stretched and continued uncertainty over the economy's strength makes strong rises in house prices over the coming months unlikely. While high current levels of mortgage approvals still suggest the existence of some demand pressure in the market, February's 0.2% fall in house prices is a reminder that fundamental drivers remain weak."

This is just classic. They must have a phenomenally highly-paid specialist in b*llsh1t to produce this sort of stuff. Tariq Aziz (sp?) eat your heart out mate, you've been gazumped.

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Clearly the VIs are torn between talking up the market in case it prompts interest rate rises & talking down the market in case it creates negative sentiment amongst buyers. Either way the VIs see their control of the market will come back to haunt them so they only have one option - alternate between posting small rises & small falls in the hope of keepng the market moving along for a while longer. However, sooner or later an economic event beyond their control & spin will occur & then there will be a return to markets driving sentiment based on truth & facts, not manipulation

Edited by volvos60

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All the nationwide graphs, as you can see the YOY and this mounth against 3 mounths ago show a slight recovery, it is clear the market changed in summer 2004 (1 mounth after i decided not to buy a house, and to continue to save).

On average houseprices have gone up £4,274 since the summer of 2004. The graphs seem to suggest average price will rise slightly this spring? i think 160k is a level we should expect to see before going back into decline, as sentiment ebbs and flows, the ebbs and flows seem to be getting weaker and weaker...

Edited by moosetea

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Although the bbc report this and mention the drop in the headline. They dedicate the rest of their article to hope and imaginary rises.

... and how amusing that BBC Breakfast did not include this information in their 08:00 news summary, even though they did manage to tell us of Hometrack's +0.4% rise yesterday.

If you are under ANY illusion as to whether "The News" is objective, I suggest you read the reply received by an HPC member to an objection centring around biased reporting of indices. Here is an extract:

"Thanks for your e-mail.

There is an inflation of house price surveys, all covering more or less

the same period and same kind of data, but they are being compiled to

varying degrees of usefulness.

As more and more surveys are rushed out by various organisations, we

recently decided to focus on four or five of these surveys - mainly the

Land Registry data, the data from the Office of the Deputy Prime

Minister, the Nationwide and the Halifax. Other house price surveys are

done on merit."

In otherwords, BBC TVs reporting of Hometrack (+ve) and failure to report Nationwide (-ve) is a complete volte face.

(Hmmm, wonder what they mean by "merit"........?)

Edited by Sledgehead

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Its all smoke and mirrors :lol:

Move along! nothing to report, just a small 'dip' - the sure sign of a healthy market 'pausing for breath' before the Spring Bounce. :lol::lol::lol:

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Tick, Tock, Tick, Tock... Gordon's miracle is slowly turning into the typical Brit's family nightmare.

Kirstie, you better find a nice cozy hiding spot. You ain't gonna be too popular.

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Guest Riser

The small rise over the New year was a direct result of last August's cut in interest rates, now that appears to be working through we will now see the crash get back on track. With prices 40% above the long term trend they must keep the bubble inflated with further cuts or else it will continue to fall under its own weight, of course any increase in rates will accellerate the rate of fall.

InterestRateHPI.gif HPI lags interest rate changes by around 10 months.

post-1619-1141122804.gif

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looked at the data a bit more, YOY peaks seem to regulally occur every 17/18 mounths, every 18 mounths we see another peak.... we have had 20 mounths since the last peak, if the peak trough cycle does occur every 18 months we should be in a peak! We are currently seeing a small bounce, but if the trough occurs in the correct place we should be seeing iminant falls...

Edited by moosetea

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Nationwide's figures simply confirm a continuation in the trend begun last year: DOWN.

The economic cycle cannot be resisted, the VIs can spin all they like but the forces of financial reality will have their day. They always do.

HPC 2006.

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Fancy reporting falls at this time of year, they should have carried on lying up until spring,

these VIs aint as clever as wot I fought they was!

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Interesting though if you look at say hometrack, Halifax, nationwide, rightmove and land registry there is a complete breakdown in any consistency between them!! All they are doing is proving what a load of crap surveys can be.

I think that starts happening when the VIs start trying to fiddle the figures through their season weightings and what not to serve whatever agenda they currently have (like stock market floatations)

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All they are doing is proving what a load of crap surveys can be.

Yes, but the ones that tell you what you want to hear are the best ones. :P

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Just had a look at the figures and to my surprise they've been seasonally adjusted down. The actual price went up slightly over the month.

What is puzzling is the colossal difference in price movements by the various indices, for example Rightmoves latest figures.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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