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Dave_The_Vinyl_Junkie

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This might be of interest - vaguely on-topic - a thread in the 'off-topic' section of the Pistonheads bulletin board, where I have lurked and occasionally posted for a couple of years. Started with a discussion on how the middle classes cannot afford to have children, and I have made a couple of postings (under the username "MeepMeepNeeeaarrrr!") explaining that one reason may be the huge financial obstacle as big as a... er.... house.... that most people are facing.

There's also input from somebody in the building trade.

Quite a lot of people agreeing with the points I made - I was half-expecting to be shot down in flames! Nobody seems to have commented on the carry trade article I linked to, though. Anyway, it may be one indicator of 'sentiment' as there are all sorts on there.

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.a...47199&f=141&h=0

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Dave_The_Vinyl_Junkie,

Intersting thread, especially the housing developer - shows where the inflatio nhas really been - l;and. Things is every activity needs land to some degree of other.

One man's brownfield site is another man's factory/business/unit.

By screwing up the planning system not only is poor quality unwanted proeprty being built but expanding companies/existing companies are being sent to the wall or forced abroad.

Economic capitulation is the result.

Not long to go now and none of it will ever come back once it is lost (not in our lifetimes anyway).

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Dave_The_Vinyl_Junkie,

Intersting thread, especially the housing developer - shows where the inflatio nhas really been - l;and. Things is every activity needs land to some degree of other.

One man's brownfield site is another man's factory/business/unit.

By screwing up the planning system not only is poor quality unwanted proeprty being built but expanding companies/existing companies are being sent to the wall or forced abroad.

Economic capitulation is the result.

Not long to go now and none of it will ever come back once it is lost (not in our lifetimes anyway).

This is true. I regularly meet management from international industrial companies. When they need to restructure or close plants, UK sites are at the top of the list regardless of competitiveness, because the gain on the sale of the site usually offsets the redundancy payments and other restructuring costs. In France or Germany this isnt true.

I have also heard management say that they close non-core businesses rather then sell as a going concern, because the factory is worth more as a building site than as an ongoing business.

Its not just FTBs who suffer from our restrictive planning policies.

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fish. (meaning that is his username, not "go and fish about for it you lazy git" ! ;) ).

Cheers, just in case anyones 2 lazy 2 fish

As a house developer I would like to put some points right on the state of the housing market. It was upto about five yeasr ago an open market where supply and demand operated and house prices where driven by this requirement.

Then we had PG3 which was a peice of legislation designed to encourage development of brown field sites. This imposes strict densities on all brown field land and at the same time there was no green field land released. This has resulted in not necassarily a bad way in using all the brown field land up(give or take) and we are now in the position that land is in very short supply, again something the govt recognises. This has also been responsible for the non family friendly three story and apartment developments as they increase density.

The problem now is as an industry we are about running out of land which we can develop. The planning regime cannot reach swiftly enough to this issue and the governament themselves recognise they have half the amount of houseing they need per annum.

So what have they done to solve this.....you ask....

- They have lumped considerably more taxation on the landowner/developer in the form of Section 106 requirements and affordable housing, taxing people for affordable has a negative effect as it ultimately pushes prices up as myself and everyone else doesn't work for free so the taxes get pushed onto the customer.

- They are reworking the wording of PG3 such that previously we could sell a "Cheap" house and have it count as affordable. They are removing this wording next year which will mean my affordable TAX can only be met by "selling" housing to a Registered state landlord at between 35%-75% of market value. As you can imagine we don't build for a loss so this gets passed to the customers or we won't develop a site.

- They have change the planning system targets such that councils are now funded based on time taken to deal with applications. You will of noticed that in your council tax leaflet they all proudly claim about 95% of large applications dealt with in 13 weeks....ah heres the trick, they won't start the clock running till you have done all the consultations before under no time preasure, and if they have issues you have to withdraw or they refuse. If you insist it is registered they just refuse. Funnilly enough refuals,appeals and "voluntary" delays don't add to the time. To realistically get planning in a year now is good going, it has also made the process much less predictable.

- In 2008 they are bringing in PGS planning gain supplement, read LAND TAX on the gain planning affords land. result has has happended in the past all land owners sell before then say sod it and hold onto the land for ten years untill a new sensible governament gets in and stops it. Note the PGS will probebly fall in at the same time the governament releases loads of grean field sites in a last ditched attempt to increase land development.

- In less well off areas of the midlands an existing commercial use peice of land is now worth the same as residential due to all the taxes result no one is selling.

What the above is trying to say it the bulk of house price increase is due to lack of land supply or raw material. This is solely at the control of the governament and all they have managed to do over the last five years is tax it and restrict it (common story) then they wondor why we have built the least houses last year since records began in the 1930's

I'm trying to do long term budgets for the future and you wonder why you bother when, you can't control your raw material it is taxed and taxed again and you can't even predict the timing for it's supply.

Housing is like everything else being quickly screwed by a greedy short sighted bunch of dictatorial powertrippers in governament.

It makes you laugh when you see Blair saying we are short of houseing but on the same hand I have sites I want to buy, people willing to sell and a Local authority putting a moritorium on houseing to the year 2021!!!!!

Hope this helps everyone.

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What the above is trying to say it the bulk of house price increase is due to lack of land supply or raw material.

Apom talks about bubbles as if houses were shares.

Houses are as much commodities as assets.

Commodities are subject to normal supply and demand laws.

80,000 tiny, poor quality units a year is not enough newbuild for 60 million people.

As Mark Twain said "Buy land, they're not making any more of it"

Undersupply means HPI.

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Guest Winners and Losers

There is live outside HPC? On other unworldly forums? :blink::blink::blink::blink:

It is a revelation!!!!!!

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What is this earth-word:

forums? :huh:

It is scribed in the holy hpc scriptures as existing somewhere out there in the ether.

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Started with a discussion on how the middle classes cannot afford to have children, and I have made a couple of postings (under the username "MeepMeepNeeeaarrrr!") explaining that one reason may be the huge financial obstacle as big as a... er.... house.... that most people are facing.

There's no need for the middle classes to re-produce anymore.

The middle classes are far too valuable as wage earning and tax paying citizens to burden themselves with the drudgery of this child rearing business.

The Chav is far better adapted to the process of prolific spawning, a single wayne and waynetta can produce three times as efficently as the average middle class couple, hence freeing 3 middle class two-income earners to do what they do best.........pay taxes.

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.

The Chav is far better adapted to the process of prolific spawning, a single wayne and waynetta can produce three times as efficently as the average middle class couple, hence freeing 3 middle class two-income earners to do what they do best.........pay taxes.

And the above also falls in nicely with the need for taxes to be generated so as to sponser the "Oil Wars" with the Chav's better equipped to supply aggressive low cost educated "cannon fodder" Thank god we are all safe in the hands of Bliars Nu Labour Britian............anybody short of a 400K mortgage? See Tone's second best buddy "Bent Bersie" he will fix it for you :ph34r:

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Guest Bart of Darkness
There is live outside HPC? On other unworldly forums?

Heed not this blasphemy.

HPC is the one true way.

Those whole fail to live by it's holy law (the economic cycle, or put more simply "what goes around, comes around") will find themselves spending an eternity in purgatory (Expats Forum) or being flamed endlessly in Hell (Singing Pig) by those who serve the Princess of Lies (London Landlady).

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This is true. I regularly meet management from international industrial companies. When they need to restructure or close plants, UK sites are at the top of the list regardless of competitiveness, because the gain on the sale of the site usually offsets the redundancy payments and other restructuring costs. In France or Germany this isnt true.

I have also heard management say that they close non-core businesses rather then sell as a going concern, because the factory is worth more as a building site than as an ongoing business.

Its not just FTBs who suffer from our restrictive planning policies.

Yes, another prime example of it today, the site was worth so much for housing that it scuppered the deal.

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0300busines...-name_page.html

Hopes for jobs dashed as bid for glass plant collapses

........

Vitrium had hoped to use the site to build Britain's first commercial vitrification plant to convert contaminated waste into a glass product, creating an initial 120 jobs.

A spokesman said, "The site now looks set to be sold to a property developer, with the land possibly used to create a number of warehouses with limited local employment."

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Yes, another prime example of it today, the site was worth so much for housing that it scuppered the deal.

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0300busines...-name_page.html

Hopes for jobs dashed as bid for glass plant collapses

........

Vitrium had hoped to use the site to build Britain's first commercial vitrification plant to convert contaminated waste into a glass product, creating an initial 120 jobs.

A spokesman said, "The site now looks set to be sold to a property developer, with the land possibly used to create a number of warehouses with limited local employment."

Warehouses is that what they call these luxury flats now ;):lol:

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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