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Realistbear

Repossession Rates Breaking Records

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http://www.theargus.co.uk/the_argus/news/NEWS1.html

Repossessions at record high
by Miles Godfrey
A record number of homeowners in Sussex face the misery of eviction because of problems paying their
mortgages.
Lenders launched repossession proceedings against 2,786 owners last year, the highest number since the house price slump of 1989 and an increase of more than 50 per cent on the year before.

The VIs gleefully report how prices in the South are soaring again but seem to neglect the other side to the story--plain old unaffordability! Sounds like 1989 re-visited?

mini-awooga?

Edited by Realistbear

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Housing professionals described repossessions and personal debt as the biggest problem facing society and called for a more realistic approach to borrowing to prevent families losing their homes.

Borrowers have to miss only two mortgage payments to be threatened with repossession.

A spokesman for Worthing-based insolvency practitioners NancollasGreer said: "Readily available credit and a live now, pay later culture have made it easier for people to get into serious financial difficulty and the impact of not being able to make repayments has never been harder.

"The figures clearly show the long-term impact of bankruptcy in Sussex.

"Bankruptcy and home repossession often go hand in hand and individuals who fail to overcome their financial problems and file for bankruptcy risk losing their homes."

Sussex finished tenth-highest on a list of 53 counties for mortgage repossessions in 2005. Brighton is by far the highest on a list of homes repossessed during the last quarter.

Echoes what's been said on this site. Roll on the HPC

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http://www.theargus.co.uk/the_argus/news/NEWS1.html

Repossessions at record high
by Miles Godfrey
A record number of homeowners in Sussex face the misery of eviction because of problems paying their
mortgages.
Lenders launched repossession proceedings against 2,786 owners last year, the highest number since the house price slump of 1989 and an increase of more than 50 per cent on the year before.

The VIs gleefully report how prices in the South are soaring again but seem to neglect the other side to the story--plain old unaffordability! Sounds like 1989 re-visited?

mini-awooga?

Not unless the BBC report it!! :lol:

Seriously, you cant argue with that data.

Though "Proceedings" arent actual repos.

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Given that the VI spin of infinite growth is clearly not possible.... what would the effect be of repossession and bankruptcy figures rising at the same rate for the next 10 years?

If the current rate of increase in repossessions continues how many will be repossesed in the next 10 years?

If the current rate of increase in bankruptcies continues how many will be bankrupt over the next 10 years?

That would be interesting to see.

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Given that the VI spin of infinite growth is clearly not possible.... what would the effect be of repossession and bankruptcy figures rising at the same rate for the next 10 years?

If the current rate of increase in repossessions continues how many will be repossesed in the next 10 years?

If the current rate of increase in bankruptcies continues how many will be bankrupt over the next 10 years?

That would be interesting to see.

I´ve linked to this for the Brighton thread.

btp

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Guest boredwaiting

I found this from a quick search (just to put this in context)

At the peak, nearly 75,000 homes were repossessed in a year. This year, the figure is likely to be around 10,000. Furthermore, the long-term average is 30,000 a year.

This is money blog

and here we are only talking proceeding and a that's a paultry 2,786 proceedings (not even near 10,000 as suggested in the blog). This could just be the market returning to it's "long term average" and not a house price crash....

Although I am sure we can put some spin on it.... :)

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I found this from a quick search (just to put this in context)

This is money blog

and here we are only talking proceeding and a that's a paultry 2,786 proceedings (not even near 10,000 as suggested in the blog). This could just be the market returning to it's "long term average" and not a house price crash....

Although I am sure we can put some spin on it.... :)

Quote:

Lenders launched repossession proceedings against 2,786 owners last year, the highest number since the house price slump of 1989 and an increase of more than 50 per cent on the year before
.

Not sure if it needs any spinnning as it speaks for itself--the highest number of repos since the crash of 1989 which must mean similar conditions exist! What is most encouraging is that things have only started to get rough for those who bought into the bubble.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

If the current rate of increase in bankruptcies continues how many will be bankrupt over the next 10 years?

Around one million at the predicted rate of 100,000 for 2006, but the coming strict credit crunch will prevent it.

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Guest boredwaiting

What is most encouraging is that things have only started to get rough for those who bought into the bubble.

If i had time i could find a post for every month for the last few years that said something similar to this...

The most powerful data that I have seen for this bubble is the house prices over the years plotted against the average trend which definately shows we are in the mother of all bubbles.... But i don't see any evidence (other than anecdotal or coincidental) to show we are in for a crash....

Bored

boredwaiting is comparing the figure for Sussex with National figures.

Ok, in my new found sceptism I missed that bit - thanks...

Around one million at the predicted rate of 100,000 for 2006, but the coming strict credit crunch will prevent it.

Yeah, this is really really reaching. We could say, given last months increase in house prices what will it be in 10 years.

(i am not in a good mood today :unsure: )

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If you compare national repossessions back in 2005:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4721783.stm

Home repossessions rise sharply
Repossessions are on the increase mortgage lenders say
The number of homes being repossessed has risen for the first time in seven years, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).
There were
4,640
homes repossessed during the first half of 2005 compared to 3,070 for the previous six months

.

You will see that there were 4,640 repos nationally. We are now talking 2,786 in Sussex alone! If we had the up-to-date national figures they would be terrifying.

Is this worth a mini-awooga? :)

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The OP on this thread seeks to give the impression that the level current level of repossessions exceeds that of the peak during the 1989-1995 crash – IMHO this is grossly misleading, as this chart (mortgage arrears) taken from a previous thread clearly shows. Have we really reached or surpassed the 1993 point? Again, we have wild extrapolation and generalisation from narrow cherry picked data. Possibly worth a mini-agoowa! :D

CLM table AP1, H1/2005

eun5ut.jpg

Edited by spline

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The OP on this thread seeks to give the impression that the level current level of repossessions exceeds that of the peak during the 1989-1995 crash – IMHO this is grossly misleading, as this chart (mortgage arrears) taken from a previous thread clearly shows. Have we really reached or surpassed the 1993 point? Again, we have wild extrapolation and generalisation from narrow cherry picked data. Possibly worth a mini-agoowa! :D

CLM table AP1, H1/2005

eun5ut.jpg

The chart is a little out of date. Can you post something that takes us up to January 2006? The pick up in arrears is just starting to rise on the 2005 chart and it seems that the trend has continued if the posted stats are correct and the numbers have already reached 1989 levels. The 50% growth in repos reported suggests the trend line is skyrocketing upwards or, to use VI language, going up up and away.

What is most interesting is that Sussex now has a staggering number of repos when you look at the nation as a whole when the BBC reported on the crisis. The current national repos must be huge?

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest boredwaiting

You will see that there were 4,640 repos nationally. We are now talking 2,786 in Sussex alone! If we had the up-to-date national figures they would be terrifying.

Is this worth a mini-awooga? :)

Because I challenge the context of this thread? Is there a rule that I should agree with you otherwise I am a troll?

I am very bearish but I am open to what i see and not see what I want to...

Edited by boredwaiting

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if the figures for sussex are right, it probably signals the trend for the rest of the country as the south east leads the rest of the country in these matters.

also, there should be lower mortgage arrears now due to low irs and the fact that high numbers of mortgages are io.

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The chart is a little out of date. Can you post something that takes us up to January 2006?

The thread title says “highest number of repos since the1989 crash”; perhaps you might like to update the graph and check if the curve really has zoomed up to exceed the 1993 levels. I think it very unlikely, but obviously worth a quick check.

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Is this worth a mini-awooga? :)

Because I challenge the context of this thread? Is there a rule that I should agree with you otherwise I am a troll?

I am very bearish but I am open to what i see and not see what I want to...

These kinds of shock figures do tend to attract Bulls and Trolls that is for sure. We have some simple data comparing current repo figures with 1989. They reflect a 50%+ increase and are the worst since the comparison year of 1989. We have the CML data from 2005 which discloses the national figures for repos. We compare the figures from Sussex alone and see that the increase in repos has been staggering with just one county reprsenting about half of all repos just a few months earlier.

You are free to believe what you want but IMHO the figures speak for themselves. These statistics are about as bearish on the housing market as you can get and are symptomatic of a market that is gravely ill.

The thread title says “highest number of repos since the1989 crash”; perhaps you might like to update the graph and check if the curve really has zoomed up to exceed the 1993 levels. I think it very unlikely, but obviously worth a quick check.

The article itself states this fact:

Lenders launched repossession proceedings against 2,786 owners last year,
the highest number since the house price slump of 1989 and an increase of more than 50 per cent on the year before
.

They are obviously using up-to-date data as they refer to stats for 2005. Your chart ends at the beginning of 2005 when, apparently, their were fewer repos. The debt mountain has increased since then and the problems of too much borrowing are just coming home to roost in significant numbers.

The comparison with 1989 is quite interesting as that was the year when the Great Crash began. Repos are a solid indicator of a distressed market.

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Guest boredwaiting

The comparison with 1989 is quite interesting as that was the year when the Great Crash began. Repos are a solid indicator of a distressed market.

It would be really interesting to know how many people are 'at risk' now compared to the last time. This could be a very decisive factor. From the 'we have never had it so good' way of thinking, we could have 'we never had it so bad....' aftermath :)

Seriously, I am not old enought to remember much about the crash in 89 (i was doing my gcse's) but did people take on as much debt? I don't think so. So there should be more people vulnerable now....

Now I say that there should, and we should see a crash. But the bottom line is that we are not, and given the new hometrack result we could have all last years depreciation wiped out in the first three months of this year.

Damn, it's depressing being bearish.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I have been checking daily the number of petitions to be heard at The Central London Bankruptcy Court for the past few months and the full list stretches the page every day.

This court is just one of the 181 Law and County Courts covering England and Wales dealing with bankruptcy and mortgage repossesions.

What a long list for tomorrow Tuesday the 28th for bankruptcies.

QUOTE(88Crash @ Feb 10 2006, 09:48 PM)

In Croydon last week, they were declaring people bankrupt 5 at a time

They apologised to all 5, but they were a bit pushed for time to do it individually

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Guest boredwaiting

I have been checking daily the number of petitions to be heard at The Central London Bankruptcy Court for the past few months and the full list stretches the page every day.

This court is just one of the 181 Law and County Courts covering England and Wales. What a long list for tomorrow Tuesday the 28th

Wow thats 94 people (if I counted correctly), so in one year (assuming 250 days a year - i don't know the official work days a year) that's 23,500 in that court alone. which could bring it to potentially half a million people covering england and wales (making some extremely bold assumptions about tomorrow being the average and ever court have the same number of applicants....) That would be nice.... (for a crash, not for the people - I don't enjoy watching other people suffer so I can gain.)

How comes you check Charlie? Someones name you are looking for :lol:

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These kinds of shock figures do tend to attract Bulls and Trolls that is for sure. We have some simple data comparing current repo figures with 1989. They reflect a 50%+ increase and are the worst since the comparison year of 1989. We have the CML data from 2005 which discloses the national figures for repos. We compare the figures from Sussex alone and see that the increase in repos has been staggering with just one county reprsenting about half of all repos just a few months earlier.

You are free to believe what you want but IMHO the figures speak for themselves. These statistics are about as bearish on the housing market as you can get and are symptomatic of a market that is gravely ill.

The article itself states this fact:

Lenders launched repossession proceedings against 2,786 owners last year,
the highest number since the house price slump of 1989 and an increase of more than 50 per cent on the year before
.

They are obviously using up-to-date data as they refer to stats for 2005. Your chart ends at the beginning of 2005 when, apparently, their were fewer repos. The debt mountain has increased since then and the problems of too much borrowing are just coming home to roost in significant numbers.

The comparison with 1989 is quite interesting as that was the year when the Great Crash began. Repos are a solid indicator of a distressed market.

Depends when the 1989 crash finished then I guess for considering that 1993 is more than 1989 on the graph how can a figure now be the highest since 1989 when 1993 was more than 1989?

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Depends when the 1989 crash finished then I guess for considering that 1993 is more than 1989 on the graph how can a figure now be the highest since 1989 when 1993 was more than 1989?

They may be referring to 1989 as the baseline year for the Great Crash (1989-96). 1989 was the year when the market turned and it is possible that the article is drawing our attention to the fact that history continues to repeat itself which certainly appears to be the case.

It will be interesting to see how the momentum builds in the coming months as people start to see higher fuel bills, council tax coupled with increases in unemployment. More interesting will be the effect of an IR hike in May to keep inline with the rest of the world as most nations begin to tighten credit.

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Depends when the 1989 crash finished then I guess for considering that 1993 is more than 1989 on the graph how can a figure now be the highest since 1989 when 1993 was more than 1989?

Simply because the graph posted isn't for the data that the OP was talking about. He was talking about repossesions but the graph is for mortgage arrears. Two thinks which are linked but not directly comparable, there is nothing to say that the peak figures in the graph related to people who were repossesed.

Having said that I'd be suprised if 1989 was the peak of repossesion numbers, but given that the original article was about one area the 1989 figure may relate to that only.

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I have been checking daily the number of petitions to be heard at The Central London Bankruptcy Court for the past few months and the full list stretches the page every day.

This court is just one of the 181 Law and County Courts covering England and Wales dealing with bankruptcy and mortgage repossesions.

What a long list for tomorrow Tuesday the 28th for bankruptcies.

I have followed your posts on this subject closely as it interests me greatly - as had personal involvement with a bankrupt - and it just seemed to have no impact on this individual’s life which outstounded me.

I would like to ask you views though on the supposed loss of stigma to the declaration of being declared bankrupt, and if the relaxation of the law to allow dischargement after only 12 months, have in your opinion had any effect on the increase in bankruptcy numbers.

And do you think the banks are doing enough? I note that Barclays for example, decline more than 50% of card applicants and are lowering credit limits to card holders deemed “vulnerable”

One final point CTT - I am trying to find stats on age of bankruptees (spell?) and also % homeowners to renters. Would you know of any source I could try?

many thanks.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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