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Realistbear

Hometrack Report House Prices Down .5% Yoy

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticl...N-HOMETRACK.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices rose for a third consecutive month in February and at the fastest pace since June 2004, according to property consultant Hometrack's latest survey published on Monday.
It said that prices rose by 0.4 percent during February, bringing the average cost of a home to 161,700 pounds,
although prices were still down 0.5 percent on a year earlier
.
In January, Hometrack reported house prices rose by just 0.1 percent on the month and fell 1.04 percent on the year.
The group said the latest pick-up in house prices was underpinned by a surge in interest as the number of buyers registering with agents jumped 26 percent over February.
"Prices are
likely
to continue to rise over the next month or so as a result of buyers returning to the market and supply remaining limited," said Richard Donnell, Hometrack director of research.
Bank of England policymakers left interest rates steady at 4.5 percent for the sixth month running earlier in February and noted that a cut in borrowing costs risked inflaming the recovering housing market.

To summarize for the Bulls, down 0.5% on a year ealier and down 1.04% on the year.

The only good news for Bulls is Hometrack's opinion that prices are "likely" to rise because buyers are returning to the market and there is a shortgage of homes. For my region there is anything but a shortage as the papers are still full of "price reduced" and "new price" offerings.

Edited by Realistbear

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For my region there is anything but a shortage as the papers are still full of "price reduced" and "new price" offerings.

Was driving through Sarf London yesterday - nearly every block of newbuilds I passed had 'Incentives Available!!' plastered across their signs

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Was driving through Sarf London yesterday - nearly every block of newbuilds I passed had 'Incentives Available!!' plastered across their signs

Same thing near Stratford with a Persimmon site offering to pay stamp duty and other incentives.

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To summarize for the Bulls, down 0.5% on a year ealier and down 1.04% on the year.

I'm not a bull, but isn't this another case where your spin is obfuscating the figures somewhat - you give the Jan and Feb figures as though both apply simultaneously which doesn't make sense - actually the YOY has fallen.

It says the Jan figures were up 0.1% MOM, down 1.04%YOY.

The Feb figures are up 0.4% MOM, down 0.5% YOY

(For comparison, back in Oct Hometrack was reporting -3.5% YOY falls after 16 months of consecutive monthly falls)

So according to Hometrack Jan and Feb have seen a 0.5% increase over the two month period. And the YOY falls having reached -3.5% have declined now to -0.5% (less than in Jan) because of the small increases since October. Not great news unfortunately, although the YOY may yet start to increase again.

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I'm not a bull, but isn't this another case where your spin is obfuscating the figures somewhat - you give the Jan and Feb figures as though both apply simultaneously which doesn't make sense - actually the YOY has fallen.

It says the Jan figures were up 0.1% MOM, down 1.04%YOY.

The Feb figures are up 0.4% MOM, down 0.5% YOY

(For comparison, back in Oct Hometrack was reporting -3.5% YOY falls after 16 months of consecutive monthly falls)

So according to Hometrack Jan and Feb have seen a 0.5% increase over the two month period. And the YOY falls having reached -3.5% have declined now to -0.5% (less than in Jan) because of the small increases since October. Not great news unfortunately, although the YOY may yet start to increase again.

I was quoting the whole report which included the earlier figures--Reuters chose to report both to perhaps add some perspective. Here is what the article said:

It said that prices rose by 0.4 percent during February, bringing the average cost of a home to 161,700 pounds, although prices were still down 0.5 percent on a year earlier.
In January, Hometrack reported house prices rose by just 0.1 percent on the month and fell 1.04 percent on the year.
.

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I was quoting the whole report which included the earlier figures--Reuters chose to report both to perhaps add some perspective. Here is what the article said:

It said that prices rose by 0.4 percent during February, bringing the average cost of a home to 161,700 pounds, although prices were still down 0.5 percent on a year earlier.
In January, Hometrack reported house prices rose by just 0.1 percent on the month and fell 1.04 percent on the year.
.

Fair enough, but the headline was pretty confusing as the two figures given for "YOY" and "in the year" are just the same measure for different periods. I'm sure you didn't mean to be confusing, but your summary for the bulls repeats that confusion and doesn't really make sense.

Edited by Magpie

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Irrespective of the spin/dodginess of Hometrack and all the other measures, eveything is pointing to a relative bounce in interest in Jan/Feb. What's still not clear to me is how much this is just a blip in a downtrend or the start of a more prolonged bout of optimism amongs the house-buying public.

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Irrespective of the spin/dodginess of Hometrack and all the other measures, eveything is pointing to a relative bounce in interest in Jan/Feb. What's still not clear to me is how much this is just a blip in a downtrend or the start of a more prolonged bout of optimism amongs the house-buying public.

There's a bounce on at the moment. Not sure whether it's a dead cat one or not.

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this quote could do with a bit of further explanation "Prices are likely to continue to rise over the next month or so as a result of buyers returning to the market and supply remaining limited," said Richard Donnell, Hometrack director of research. He noted the 0.9 pct rise in London prices on the back of a 35 pct rise in new buyers but only a 10 pct rise in the number of homes for sale. <_< That to me suggests that they are for the most part plucking figures from their imagination..

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Irrespective of the spin/dodginess of Hometrack and all the other measures, eveything is pointing to a relative bounce in interest in Jan/Feb. What's still not clear to me is how much this is just a blip in a downtrend or the start of a more prolonged bout of optimism amongs the house-buying public.

IMHO it is a massive concerted effort by the VIs to convince the people in an overextended debt crisis to believe it can go on without a correction. I would not be surprised if they are working together to spin the news in such a way that even negative data looks good (e.g. mortgage lending down yet house buying activity up). It will be interesting to see if Rightmove's data comes under scrutiny in the light of their tendency to seed the stats with large numbers of extremely overpriced properties (e.g. 129 million pound terraces in S****horpe etc.).

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IMHO it is a massive concerted effort by the VIs to convince the people in an overextended debt crisis to believe it can go on without a correction. I would not be surprised if they are working together to spin the news in such a way that even negative data looks good (e.g. mortgage lending down yet house buying activity up). It will be interesting to see if Rightmove's data comes under scrutiny in the light of their tendency to seed the stats with large numbers of extremely overpriced properties (e.g. 129 million pound terraces in S****horpe etc.).

Conspiracy theories aside, last year Hometrack's YOY figures led me to believe that the other indices would follow suit and turn negative by now, leading to faster falls. Now the Hometrack figures look to be indicating a slowing or reversal of that trend. Either a soft landing or a dead cat bounce seems more likely then a vast conspiracy to me.

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You must be dizzy - all that desperate spinning you're doing.

Reality is prices dipped slightly if at all and now they are on the way back up.

Deperate times for the bears.

:lol:

Desperate? Nope. I continue saving more and more money - taking it out of the economy, whilst sheeple take on more and more unmanagable debt to buy an overpriced sh**hole!

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You must be dizzy - all that desperate spinning you're doing.

Reality is prices dipped slightly if at all and now they are on the way back up.

Deperate times for the bears.

:lol:

You talk rubbish but out of interest:

1/ why do you come on HPC forum - are you just interested in economics?

2/ Even though you opinion is bullish why do you think it is funny if people can't afford desent housing?

Edited by since the beginning

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You talk rubbish but out of interest:

1/ why do you come on HPC forum - are you just interested in economics?

2/ Even though you opinion is bullish why do you think it is funny if people can't afford desent housing?

1. I'm interested in THE TRUTH about house prices, not unsubstantiated rubbish.

2. I didn't here myself laughing at people who can't afford decent housing - just laughing at the spin merchants on here, who are deluded and desperate. Its as though the last two years have never happened!

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You talk rubbish but out of interest:

1/ why do you come on HPC forum - are you just interested in economics?

2/ Even though you opinion is bullish why do you think it is funny if people can't afford desent housing?

Back in the day, IUN used to pretent he/she was a frozen out ftb type sufferring from the unfair knock on effects of rampant HPI, complaining because he/she thought that prices would never stop going up.

Now he's laughing at the bears because Hometrack said prices went up 0.1% or something.

A change of personality appears to have taken place.

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Same thing near Stratford with a Persimmon site offering to pay stamp duty and other incentives.

they are great... I got £20,000 of the list price in five minutes and then didn't buy..

why?

Because it was a rubbish flat that was still 5 times my salary...

still at £170,000 the year before...

(apom now realises that he may have used that analogy to death... sorry)

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Guest The_Oldie

Back in the day, IUN used to pretent he/she was a frozen out ftb type sufferring from the unfair knock on effects of rampant HPI, complaining because he/she thought that prices would never stop going up.

Now he's laughing at the bears because Hometrack said prices went up 0.1% or something.

A change of personality appears to have taken place.

I think he succumbed to the VI spin and bought a house :lol:.

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1. I'm interested in THE TRUTH about house prices, not unsubstantiated rubbish.

2. I didn't here myself laughing at people who can't afford decent housing - just laughing at the spin merchants on here, who are deluded and desperate. Its as though the last two years have never happened!

I know what you mean.. About the truth...

If you study the figures you will see that the average price varies £40,000 between reports..

If you bought a paper today quoting this £160,000 average and then tomorrow one reporting the rightmoe stuff could you say that house prices have rocketed £40,000 in a day?

and if you read them the other way round could you say that house prices have dropped by £40,000??

Nope.. Its madness..

Thats why I ignore the figures as best I can..

Look at what is going on around you....

You are at the other end of the country to me.. Trust me in Devon I see that I can buy far more then I could last year..

but as a seller could I get more for my property then I could a year ago...? depending on the type of property I held..

follow this logic...

durring the raging infl;ation times friends bought a two bed house.

it cost the same at that time as any two bed house..

Only it has no garden and has roads and a junction round the three sides not attached to another property..

They can't sell it..

Now is this because there is more choice now and its no longer going to sell if you can get one with a garden for the same money>?

I think that in a time when people are struggling to sell it will matter hugely what you have bought

This is what breaks the market...

a sensible victorian house will still sell faster then a barratt horror...

I would hope it would anyway

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Desperate? Nope. I continue saving more and more money - taking it out of the economy, whilst sheeple take on more and more unmanagable debt to buy an overpriced sh**hole!

Your saving is having quite the opposite effect, if macroeconomists are to be believed: you are increasing the pool of loanable funds which will be used for investment and should stimulate growth. Unless you save overseas, which will dilute the effect.

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As a challenge, can anyone recognise what house-price related factor is being plotted in the attached graph, and what is being shown by the following graph? If anyone has a guess, I'll then say what relevance I believe it has to the current thread. Ignore the actual numbers, they have been modified to have no direct meaning.

Billy Shears

data.png

post-3706-1141062287.png

Edited by BillyShears

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As a challenge, can anyone recognise what house-price related factor is being plotted in the attached graph, and what is being shown by the following graph? If anyone has a guess, I'll then say what relevance I believe it has to the current thread. Ignore the actual numbers, they have been modified to have no direct meaning.

Billy Shears

TV ratings of 'location location' ?

variability between popular officially quoted house price index measurements ?

number of happy smilies vs sad smilies used on housepricecrash.co.uk ?

number of purchases of one job lot of magnolia paint and one set of wood panelled flooring ?

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TV ratings of 'location location' ?

variability between popular officially quoted house price index measurements ?

number of happy smilies vs sad smilies used on housepricecrash.co.uk ?

number of purchases of one job lot of magnolia paint and one set of wood panelled flooring ?

Actually it's as near to a completely random graph as I can possibly make up. Every tick on the x axis the y value randomly goes up by one, stays the same, or goes down by one. But like any graph generated in this way, it doesn't appear random but seems to show patterns with consistently rising and falling periods. This is the kind of pattern you see on a graph that makes it look like markets are more predictable, and more consistent than they actually are.

Relevance to this thread is, I don't believe that markets are anything as like as predictable as people say, and that there are a lot of random factors involved. So if it looks like prices are going down and then going up again, how much of this is actually a true representation of the fundamentals of the market, and how much of it is just random noise.

People seem to be getting het up about the possibility of house prices going up at the moment. So once again no crash. But I think trying to watch a boom and/or bust in real time is just too fine detail to make any sense. Even the dot-com boom/bust had a big fall followed by a recovery. And we had a stall before the housing market continued going up again in 2003 or thereabouts.

Billy Shears

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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