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Uk Jan Mortgage Approvals Fall

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As most traders know volume is an important indicator of the strength behind price movements, it looks like the increases in asking prices reported in January may be supported by little more than hot air from desperate VIs

UK Jan mortgage approvals fall to 45,039 from 51,233 in Dec - BBA

LONDON (AFX) - The number of loans taken out for new mortgages in the UK

dipped further in January from the previous month, but remained substantially

higher than the equivalent period last year, a leading industry body said today.

The British Bankers Association said the number of mortgage approvals during

the month fell by around 12 pct in January to 45,039 from December's 51,233. A

year ago when there were fears of a potential housing market crash, the number

of mortgage approvals slumped to 34,216.

Overall, the BBA said there were 140,020 mortgage approvals for all

purposes, including remortgaging, in January, with a total value of 12.7 bln

stg. Though that was 1 pct lower than in December, it stood 8 pct higher than in

January 2005.

The BBA also said that in line with previous years, the average approval for

house purchase fell in January, to 126,800 stg from 134,400 in December.

Nevertheless, the average approval is 11 pct higher than January 2005.

Elsewhere, the BBA confirmed its earlier estimate that seasonally adjusted

net mortgage lending during January rose by 4.6 bln stg in January compared with

5.3 bln in December and 4.2 bln in January 2005. This January's outcome was

slightly below the 4.7 bln average over recent months.

In addition, the BBA said net lending on loans and overdrafts rose by 0.6

bln stg in January, double the 0.3 bln average of the previous six months, while

net lending on credit cards rose by 0.1 bln, in line with the recent average.

"Seasonally adjusted net mortgage lending fell back to around the recent

trend in January and the level of approvals, in particular for equity

withdrawal, held up well in what is traditionally a slow month," said David

Dooks, the BBA's director of statistics.

"Whilst credit card lending continued to be subdued, consistent with the

current weakness in retail sales, lending on loans and overdrafts was stronger

than of late, with a greater use being made of overdrafts," he added.

Edited by Riser

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I still think we are seeing the ripplles from the rate drop last summer and the aborted SIPPS laws - both directly (investors who had commited to buy on the open market and off-plan) and spooked buyers (the few that are left in combination with all the spin over the new year).

NAEA stats show the lowest level of FTB's in a January reading ever (9%), this is only a couple of percent above their all-time lowest readings.

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Some care is needed in interpreting these figures - both the transaction and loan approval series show huge seasonal variation with traditional big dips in January, so either need a substantial “seasonal correction”, always open to some dispute, or be compared with the previous year. In this case the YoY Jan/05 to Jan/06 for mortgage approvals and total loan amount is up, and broadly consistent with the increase in transactions of for the same period.

Ties in with the discussion on the Jan/06 transaction volume, see this thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ndpost&p=308700

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Transactions down--seasonally adjusted:

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...IN-PROPERTY.xml

There may be some correlation between transactions and mortgage approvals. However, we have to be careful as there is a great deal of re-mortgaging going on with the rush of 10 year fixed hitting the market in anticipation of world rates rising.

Figures just in:

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...IN-PROPERTY.xml

In its breakdown of January lending figures published today, the British Bankers' Association (BBA) said its members had advanced £14.5bn to mortgage borrowers over the month, £5.7bn of which was for house purchases.

Looks like about a third was for new purchases (SIPPs??--how many will cancel?)

Edited by Realistbear

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Fantstic news for us and for the VI's - a spin unspun by the sleuth's at HPC.

So yet another victory at HPC. Cos they fabricate. I remember when I first joined this forum reading that if new approvals were below 90 thopusand for the month the prices come tumbling down.

At 45, 000 they're going to tumble.

Fantstic news for us and for the VI's - a spin unspun by the sleuth's at HPC.

So yet another victory at HPC. 'Cos they fabricate. I remember when I first joined this forum reading that if new approvals were below 90 thopusand for the month the prices come tumbling down.

At 45, 000 they're going to tumble.

Edited by music man

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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