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feltsorryfor

Property Shortage Pushes Up Prices

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The shortage is down to affordable houses. There are plenty of houses for sale that no one can afford. So pushing the price up of these does not make sense.

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There's currently a shortage of houses that buyers consider good value for money. Anything in a good location seems to be selling well. There clearly a massive over supply og average and poor housing. But why would anyone buy one of those by choice.

The question is:

Will the shortage of decent houses keep the market prices up, or will the huge over supply of rubbish eventually drag the entire market down?

My conclusion after several months of deliberating is that without a significant exogenous trigger the shortage of decent houses will keep the market up. However as soon as there is a trigger everything will collapse. Some property will fall 5%, others will fall 70%. When - who knows?

If I was under 27 then the decision not to buy is very very easy. If I was over 35 with a decent deposit then I'd buy.

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If I was under 27 then the decision not to buy is very very easy. If I was over 35 with a decent deposit then I'd buy.

Sh1t, I'm somewhere in between. Do I even exist anymore ?? :unsure:

Talk about the jilted generation.

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The shortage is down to affordable houses. There are plenty of houses for sale that no one can afford. So pushing the price up of these does not make sense.

Or more correctly there were too many people prepared to pay more then you were, or then FTB's are prepared to..

No shortage of housing, people have just been paying too much

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There's currently a shortage of houses that buyers consider good value for money. Anything in a good location seems to be selling well. There clearly a massive over supply og average and poor housing. But why would anyone buy one of those by choice.

The question is:

Will the shortage of decent houses keep the market prices up, or will the huge over supply of rubbish eventually drag the entire market down?

My conclusion after several months of deliberating is that without a significant exogenous trigger the shortage of decent houses will keep the market up. However as soon as there is a trigger everything will collapse. Some property will fall 5%, others will fall 70%. When - who knows?

If I was under 27 then the decision not to buy is very very easy. If I was over 35 with a decent deposit then I'd buy.

why?! Being (just) over 35 myself with a hefty STR deposit waiting, there are many reasons for me to wait for price reductions. Why should I buy a family home now for half a million, saddle myself with huge debt that I'll be paying off when I should be supporting my kids through school, etc.

Everyone has their own very good reason not to buy right now, whatever their age...the best being that prices are at their peak and will fall. Imagine buying now only to look back in 5-10 years as prices trough thinking what you could do for your family with that money. Eek. <_<

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The point here really is that Hometrack, the survey you bears love to quote is recording +0.4% rise in February nationally and +0.9% rise in London.

That'll be a price crash then !!!!!!!!!!!! - NOT

Now, I agree there is no shortage of housing. Whats pushing the market up, is that alot of people are doing very nicely and can afford to pay these prices, whilst IRs stay at 4.5% - and thats the key to all this.

Given that 4.5% looks here to stay for the next two years at least, then you won't see a crash, just a very gradual increase in line with pay increases.

Where's the trigger for higher IRs ? - please give me something REALISTIC and NEW and don't just regurgitate all the standard stock answers that have clearly proven to be ficticious for the last two years.

:D

PS God only knows what the more bullish surveys are going to come up with in the next couple of months !!

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Given that 4.5% looks here to stay for the next two years at least.

That's a very bold statement.

I have no idea what's going to happen to interest rates, but most people who've tried to predict them have got it wrong.

What makes you think you're right??

(Please give me something REALISTIC and NEW and don't just regurgitate all the standard stock answers that have clearly proven to be ficticious for the last two years)

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That's a very bold statement.

I have no idea what's going to happen to interest rates, but most people who've tried to predict them have got it wrong.

What makes you think you're right??

(Please give me something REALISTIC and NEW and don't just regurgitate all the standard stock answers that have clearly proven to be ficticious for the last two years)

I'm backing the BoE and their inflation report and all their other speeches. + the views of a lot of other people that seem to think IRs are going anywhere.

They have been consistently more correct than the amatuers on here !

:D

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I'm backing the BoE and their inflation report and all their other speeches. + the views of a lot of other people that seem to think IRs are going anywhere.

They have been consistently more correct than the amatuers on here !

:D

You and I both know the inflation reports are bull!

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I'm backing the BoE and their inflation report and all their other speeches. + the views of a lot of other people that seem to think IRs are going anywhere.

They have been consistently more correct than the amatuers on here !

:D

I don't think the following justifies your certainty:

As usual, there are substantial risks surrounding the central

projections. These include, in particular: the outlook for

consumer spending; the prospects for net exports; the

sustainability of low long-term interest rates; the margin of

spare capacity; and the evolution of energy prices and their

impact on inflation. There is a range of views among members,

but the Committee judges that, relative to the central

projection, the overall risks are to the downside for growth and

broadly balanced for inflation.

Substantial risks and a wide range of views... truth is we're on a knife edge with inflationary pressures and long term interest rates on one side and growth and unemployment on the other. It could easily go strongly either way.

T&T

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I'm just waiting for a macro-economic event to push this pyramid of cards over

That's whats so scary - the economy is still 'stable' after x years - but it's all seems to be sustained with 'smoke and mirrors' eg recent inflation rate

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http://www.findaproperty.com/

This website currently lists 184,000+ properties for sale/rent. Last month the figure was 177,000 +/-

Shortage of properties? Somehow I do not think the great British public is as stupid as the VIs think they are. The collective intelligence is not buying the spin anymore that is why the number of transactions FELL in January compared with December according to HM Government Customs and Excise figures.

There is NO shortage of properties for sale.

Edited by Realistbear

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"However, it is a general shortage of homes for sale that really underpins the growth in average values over the last month".

only 570,000 on rightmove. chronic shortage.

I often see this quoted on here but the truth is that those 570,000 are not spare homes, they are, in the main, occupied!

And there is a shortage, certainly compared to 10 years ago when, in Yorkshire there were tens if not hundereds of thousands of empty properties. Not any more there isn't. They've been done up and occupied.

OK, there may be some empty new build flats (Prescotts follies) but they are generally neither in areas where people wish to bring families up nor the type of home one would want to build a family life in. Of three bed semi's, in crime free areas and near nice schools there are no where near enough to satisfy demand!

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Guest Winners and Losers

http://www.findaproperty.com/

This website currently lists 184,000+ properties for sale/rent. Last month the figure was 177,000 +/-

Shortage of properties? Somehow I do not think the great British public is as stupid as the VIs think they are. The collective intelligence is not buying the spin anymore that is why the number of transactions FELL in January compared with December according to HM Government Customs and Excise figures.

There is NO shortage of properties for sale.

Yes, ONLY 1,000 properties for sale in SW16. Oh dear, what will we do!!! Panic, panic. In the neighbourhood where my house is (in Oz) there are only about 50 properties for sale - OK, not as dense as SW16 but all the same, shortage?? Looks to me like you can take your pick. Oh, and the 'shortage' of property for sale in Oz did not push the market back up. When she's goin down, she's goin down.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/4163534.stm

Houses in Devon which have been lying empty for years could be brought back into use more quickly with new powers being considered by the government.
The charity said there are about 13,000 empty private properties across Devon.

http://www.wakefield.gov.uk/Housing/Housin...ies/default.htm

There are some 3,000 empty properties in the Wakefield District. The majority if these are short term vacant homes where, for example, they are being sold.

Any more?

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There is NO shortage of properties for sale.

Quite, from what you read in the press you would be entitled to believe that something like a third of the UK's housing stock burnt down/fell into the sea/was demolished by aliens etc at some point in 2001. If there is a shortage of properties for sale (doubtful) then it was the same in 2001, 1997 and any other date you care to mention.

The UK housing stock has remained at the same level for god knows how many years, it is no explanation for today's prices, the explanation lies on the demand side of the equation.

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I often see this quoted on here but the truth is that those 570,000 are not spare homes, they are, in the main, occupied!

And there is a shortage, certainly compared to 10 years ago when, in Yorkshire there were tens if not hundereds of thousands of empty properties. Not any more there isn't. They've been done up and occupied.

OK, there may be some empty new build flats (Prescotts follies) but they are generally neither in areas where people wish to bring families up nor the type of home one would want to build a family life in. Of three bed semi's, in crime free areas and near nice schools there are no where near enough to satisfy demand!

That's all a bit wishy-washy. What do you mean by "demand"? Of course three bed semi's in crime free areas near nice schools are in "demand" in the sense that people will want them more than two bed terraces in crime ridden areas with rubbish schools. But that is a statement of the obvious. Demand doesn't mean "I demand it" in terms of "I would really like it", or "I insist upon it, even though I can't have it". Demand is the ability to pay for it combined with a desire to pay for it, which means that the thing in demand will then have that value.

I think the word demand is misused a lot on here. The real reason for the demand is that people are able to borrow the amount necessary to buy these things at the current price, and they think that borrowing that much to buy them is sensible and do so - therefore demand. If people want something and are prepared to spend the money to get it (either real money they own, or borrowed money from the bank) then that is demand. The key point is, how long will people either be able to secure the money to do it, or alternatively how long will they think that it is worth the money. They are ALWAYS going to think that 3 bed semis in posh areas are better than something less desirable, just like they would think that 5 bedroom detached in an acre of ground would be better still. Duh!

Edited by Levy process

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Guest Winners and Losers

Not any more there isn't. They've been done up and occupied.

Yes, not YET......

Edited by Winners and Losers

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I often see this quoted on here but the truth is that those 570,000 are not spare homes, they are, in the main, occupied!

And there is a shortage, certainly compared to 10 years ago when, in Yorkshire there were tens if not hundereds of thousands of empty properties. Not any more there isn't. They've been done up and occupied.

by whom? :blink: where did these hundreds and thousands of previously homeless people appear from?

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by whom? :blink: where did these hundreds and thousands of previously homeless people appear from?

Mostly from overseas actually!

So, do I listen to you lot or read the Barker report? F*cking difficult that one :D

A shortage of new houses has contributed to soaring property prices in the UK and rising homelessness, a Treasury report said today.

In her review of housing supply, Kate Barker, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said a shortage of land available to developers was the main cause of the problem.

But she added that housebuilders were also reluctant to develop brown field sites and controlled the release of new properties on large developments to maximise profits.

Ms Barker's report, which was commissioned by the chancellor, Gordon Brown, also said the planning system failed to respond to demand in the housing market, and local authorities had few incentives to grant planning permission to developers.

In 2001 only 175,000 new homes were built in the UK, the lowest level since the second world war, and during the past 10 years the number of new properties built was 12.5% lower than during the previous decade.

Ms Barker found that the shortage of housing has increased the level of homelessness - with the number in temporary accommodation doubling to 93,000 in the last eight years

Her review reported that because of shortage of supply, house prices had risen by an average of 2.4% in real terms during the past 30 years, compared with an average of 1.1% in Europe and 0% in Germany.

http://society.guardian.co.uk/housing/stor...1103778,00.html

or

the country is in the grip of a serious housing shortage

http://www.uklanddirectory.org.uk/housing-...and-england.htm

also

Migration watch

The UK’s population is projected to rise by 7.2 million from 2004 to 2031 – That’s equivalent to a two cities the size of Cambridge every year

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/

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There's currently a shortage of houses that buyers consider good value for money. Anything in a good location seems to be selling well. There clearly a massive over supply og average and poor housing. But why would anyone buy one of those by choice.

The question is:

Will the shortage of decent houses keep the market prices up, or will the huge over supply of rubbish eventually drag the entire market down?

My conclusion after several months of deliberating is that without a significant exogenous trigger the shortage of decent houses will keep the market up. However as soon as there is a trigger everything will collapse. Some property will fall 5%, others will fall 70%. When - who knows?

If I was under 27 then the decision not to buy is very very easy. If I was over 35 with a decent deposit then I'd buy.

I think you make a good point. Isn't the obvious response that all the dross is probably dropping like a stone, whereas the quality stuff is more or less holding up or even rising?

Since FTBs can only afford the dross, they are better off staying out! At least in a couple of years they'll be able to buy the best of the dross.

frugalista

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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