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I emailed a girl at work who told me she was renting about HPC, thinking I was doing her a favour only to be told I was a doom & gloomer. When I asked how house prices dropping to an affordable level for both of us could possibly be 'doom & gloom', it turns out she 'wants to buy soon' and isn't renting out of wisdom, she's believing the hype.. oops. I didn't pursue the matter, best to keep my nose out I think.

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I emailed a girl at work who told me she was renting about HPC, thinking I was doing her a favour only to be told I was a doom & gloomer. When I asked how house prices dropping to an affordable level for both of us could possibly be 'doom & gloom', it turns out she 'wants to buy soon' and isn't renting out of wisdom, she's believing the hype.. oops. I didn't pursue the matter, best to keep my nose out I think.

Let them buy. I give up. But, please, no stories in 12mths time about how you tried to tell someone and now they are in negative equity. Oh, but of course that won't happen because prices are going to go up another 20% in 1 year.

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I emailed a girl at work who told me she was renting about HPC, thinking I was doing her a favour only to be told I was a doom & gloomer. When I asked how house prices dropping to an affordable level for both of us could possibly be 'doom & gloom', it turns out she 'wants to buy soon' and isn't renting out of wisdom, she's believing the hype.. oops. I didn't pursue the matter, best to keep my nose out I think.

What can you do?

I have not converted one person. Nobody has listened. Not even people closest to me. Someone very close to me bought a flat last year , using 20K from a relative as a deposit , on a self cert IO mortgage and got a mortgage of £140 K on a salary of £25K. Not only did this person buy against my advice, she did so without my knowledge, (I had a right to know for reasons I must withold-personal) and persuaded the whole tribe into a conspiracy of silence so no one told me about the purchase until a few days before completion. Imagine that! The person paying the deposit did not know about the fraud. Her siblings have lost out because the 20K given as a deposit should have been part of their inheritance.The flat is a slum and needs at least 40K worth of work doing.

I was gutted.

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When I asked how house prices dropping to an affordable level for both of us could possibly be 'doom & gloom', it turns out she 'wants to buy soon' and isn't renting out of wisdom, she's believing the hype.. oops.

You can't really expect much from those airy fairy silly girls, if there too stupid to listen, let them burn in hell..!!!

Maybe you could provide a monthly update as to the progress of this individual..

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I've converted one person. The really silly thing is that the person in question earns great money and could easily afford a house, even if prices dropped. He'd just be getting poor value.

One other person I failed miserably on. He cannot afford it. He will be a goner when rates rise.

Another couple I know, who can sort of afford but only on 2 incomes, are still looking for a place to buy but at least are doing so with some caution that it should be somewhere they could plan to stay for a loooong time and are also considering renting instead if they cannot find a suitable place to buy.

Seems the less a person can actually afford a house the harder it is to convince them.

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It’s not worth trying to persuade people they have to find out for themselves. I just congratulate people now and just hope they can afford their house even when rates rise. At the end of the day if there is no house price crash they can't blame you for stopping them buying.

I've always been 90% sure of a large crash but you never know reasons such as mass immigration could have caused a sustainable jump in house prices. (I very much doubt this though.) Although I must admit I have a lot more foreign friends in London now (3 of which have bought houses - 1 French, 1 Slovakian and 1 Danish) 5 years ago none of these people were living in London.

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Seems the less a person can actually afford a house the harder it is to convince them.

That is my experience too.

Personally, I don't try to convert anyone. It's not my place. If asked I will give my opinion.

I know someone on minimum wage(intelligent person, graduate from the time when degrees actually meant something) who is currently buying, IO, self cert, the place needs a lot of work. The place this person works is due to be sold and in all likelihood they will lose their job.

The strange thing about this is, this person had a house repossessed in the past. You would think they would have learned from this past experience. However, it seems not. <_<

Edited by Phaedrus

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You can't really expect much from those airy fairy silly girls, if there too stupid to listen, let them burn in hell..!!!

Maybe you could provide a monthly update as to the progress of this individual..

I'll let you know if I hear anything, though I suspect she won't be rushing to tell me she's bought! That's the trouble with co-habiting, pick the wrong girl, and she'll emotionally blackmail you until you give in, against better judgement.

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Personally, I don't try to convert anyone. It's not my place. If asked I will give my opinion.

All very well but I find it impossible to stand back and watch my other half or a close relative or two of my best friends buy vastly overpriced houses without at least mentioning (at length) asset price bubbles, The Graph, Japan, and the threat of IR hikes.

Random acquaintances yeah whatever, if they bring it up and ask I'd say something but really I don't care about them.

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That is my experience too.

Personally, I don't try to convert anyone. It's not my place. If asked I will give my opinion.

I know someone on minimum wage(intelligent person, graduate from the time when degrees actually meant something) who is currently buying, IO, self cert, the place needs a lot of work. The place this person works is due to be sold and in all likelihood they will lose their job.

The strange thing about this is, this person had a house repossessed in the past. You would think they would have learned from this past experience. However, it seems not. <_<

One of lifes born losers - why because they don't learn from their mistakes. To be honest I'm not surprised they're in a minimum wage job, intelligence but no commonsense - some people like that are lucky and take the path of least resistance and end-up in an ok job, others have crazy dreams which will in the end destroy their life.

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Well you haven't converted me yet!

I've been watching this site for nearly 18 months now and must admit initially I was quite excited at the thoughts of prices falling through the floor.

But 'crash'. No not seen much sign of it. Slow down, stagnation, even a fall in some prices but 'crash' no.

People have to live somewhere, interest rates are good, most people don't do any research before buying (let alone know of this site) and ,above all, quality housing in good areas will always sell.

Of course there is VI but any crash is unlikely to happen whilst affordability is reached.

Now someone will tell me the crash will be in 2007 or 8 or 9 or...... :unsure:

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Next you'll be saying income is linked to intelligence :lol::lol::lol:

Hehe, yes but also age and what your job is and a few other bits and pieces! In my example there the best paid person is paid better because of more experience and being a contractor.

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The only person I have managed to convert is my wife, and she only got converted after many, many arguments and then doing a financial trading course where she's learnt to think a bit about economics (so I guess it wasn't even me that converted her in the end).

Not saying that I'm an economical guru, because I'm decidedly not, but I just don't get it how all these people are so bloody brainwashed into thinking property is always a good investment. I'm starting to think that people are really, really stupid en masse.

Real life examples:

One of my wife's friends desperately wants to buy... she's living at home at the moment, and has a deposit of about 15k and I always used to get into arguments with her about house prices always going up, so we have decided not to talk about that now :)

There's another one from NZ and I asked her about half a year ago what's going on with the property market in NZ and she immediately replied "it's dropped a little now but it will shoot up soon!"

Wife's brother is a builder living at home, doing up houses and he's angry with us for not lending him a deposit and paying a mortgage last year when he wanted to "do up a house" in exchange for a couple of percent of the profits (Hmm, I sign my name on that mortgage application and then we end up in negative equity and all sorts of trouble for a couple of percent... yeah, great idea!). Allegedly, his friend bought a house last year and "it's gone up over 70 grand in a year" (I didn't bother explaining about an estate agents estimate != achieved sale price)

One of my workmates is about to move into his shared ownership flat (he will own 40%).

My bosses mortgage is 1150 interest only, and there are lots of redundancies happening where I work (50 people out of 90)...

My wife's uncle and his wife living in council housing out in a small town are saving up every penny they can so that they can get a mortgage... If you have a blimming council house (which is nice, big and in good nick, btw), pay about 50 pounds rent a week, why the hell would you want to buy it and be lumbered with mortgage payments, insurance and maintenance?

Myself, I'm of course being stupid for paying 866 pounds a month in rent for a 1-bed in Central London because it's a waste of money...

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Im getting that lemming feeling again. I know 3 people who are thinking about jumping in even though we know people who jumped in last year, and know they are struggling badly. People dont accociate the struggling people with the same position they will be in when they buy.

Edited by moosetea

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Well you haven't converted me yet!

I've been watching this site for nearly 18 months now and must admit initially I was quite excited at the thoughts of prices falling through the floor.

But 'crash'. No not seen much sign of it. Slow down, stagnation, even a fall in some prices but 'crash' no.

People have to live somewhere, interest rates are good, most people don't do any research before buying (let alone know of this site) and ,above all, quality housing in good areas will always sell.

Of course there is VI but any crash is unlikely to happen whilst affordability is reached.

Now someone will tell me the crash will be in 2007 or 8 or 9 or...... :unsure:

True enough, cant see a UK crash at the moment as the BoE will do all they can to stop one.

Its not in the countries interest to have a HPC really, although some on this site may disagree, they are the sound of trees falling in the woods!

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Well you haven't converted me yet!

I've been watching this site for nearly 18 months now and must admit initially I was quite excited at the thoughts of prices falling through the floor.

But 'crash'. No not seen much sign of it. Slow down, stagnation, even a fall in some prices but 'crash' no.

People have to live somewhere, interest rates are good, most people don't do any research before buying (let alone know of this site) and ,above all, quality housing in good areas will always sell.

Of course there is VI but any crash is unlikely to happen whilst affordability is reached.

Now someone will tell me the crash will be in 2007 or 8 or 9 or...... :unsure:

'But 'crash'. No not seen much sign of it. Slow down, stagnation, even a fall in some prices but 'crash' no.'

:lol:

erm, what more do you need? The tide is receding before the tsunami, the ground is bulging before the eruption etc except this eruption will be slow and gradual. Crash sounds sudden so we think we haven't 'seen' it yet, but it's well underway nevertheless IMHO, read the signs - the foundations rot before the structure collapses.

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True enough, cant see a UK crash at the moment as the BoE will do all they can to stop one.

Its not in the countries interest to have a HPC really, although some on this site may disagree, they are the sound of trees falling in the woods!

So is it in the countries interest to have stupidly high house prices then?

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Chatting to a good friend last night on the way home from a dinner. He trusts me and the wife, so we were able to discuss his plans to buy in zone 1.

Basically he's tired of renting, has a meagre deposit, moderate salary, but very good long-term job prospects (more job stability than pay). Looking at borrowing 5-7 times income to buy the flat he wants. If he gets the 2-bed he could always rent out the second room. He'll never have children.

In the car was able to explain i) herd mentality, ii) low inflation problem, and iii) low yield on property. He is a PhD level social scientist so had no problem appreciating the herd mentality issue!

Most of my other friends don't see the point in not buying, it seems...

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'But 'crash'. No not seen much sign of it. Slow down, stagnation, even a fall in some prices but 'crash' no.'

:lol:

Why don't you buy now and then you can tell us when the crash comes?

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I simply try to restore a smidgin of balance by putting the HPC story before people. When I initially discovered that there were a community of doubters like myself, I became emboldened and rather zealous - with the effect that I tended to seriously distress my recently-bought friends and acquaintances, and it all ended up being rather unpleasant and pointless.

These days I take a more gentle and circumspect approach, which gets an equally poor number of results, but with rather less unpleasantness all round.

Other renters, such as myself, tend to be rather receptive to my views and I am often left with the feeling that they are "converted". Give it a few months though and they switch back after being repeatedly exposed to the avalanche of bullish thought out there

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I simply try to restore a smidgin of balance by putting the HPC story before people. When I initially discovered that there were a community of doubters like myself, I became emboldened and rather zealous - with the effect that I tended to seriously distress my recently-bought friends and acquaintances, and it all ended up being rather unpleasant and pointless.

These days I take a more gentle and circumspect approach, which gets an equally poor number of results, but with rather less unpleasantness all round.

Other renters, such as myself, tend to be rather receptive to my views and I am often left with the feeling that they are "converted". Give it a few months though and they switch back after being repeatedly exposed to the avalanche of bullish thought out there

ditto... i just keep quite, people know my views, my dad seems supportive and on my side and agrees houses are over priced. However i was informed by a family member in his christmas letter to friends and extended family he wrote 'I just dont know why he doesnt buy a house'... Ohwell ;p

Edited by moosetea

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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