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I am guessing:

with high oil

obvious inflatory pressures other than CPi or RPi

huge debt burden

very sticky market

and most people completely priced out the market. FTBers or upgraders

That it will hit the fan in autumn 2006.

Any other guesses or reasons, and a why please. :o

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I am guessing:

with high oil

obvious inflatory pressures other than CPi or RPi

huge debt burden

very sticky market

and most people completely priced out the market. FTBers or upgraders

That it will hit the fan in autumn 2006.

Any other guesses or reasons, and a why please. :o

It has already happened IMO. We're just waiting for vendors to drop their prices and start the ball rolling again.

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Guest Winners and Losers

I am guessing:

with high oil

obvious inflatory pressures other than CPi or RPi

huge debt burden

very sticky market

and most people completely priced out the market. FTBers or upgraders

That it will hit the fan in autumn 2006.

Any other guesses or reasons, and a why please. :o

Or, when will it become apparent. I plump for early 2007 with a slow fall of prices until then - unless something comes along to avert it. If FTB's can't buy and BTL's are pulling out, the market is stuffed.

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Without any figures to back it up, just going on an intuitive feel, autumn seems reasonable. I think there'll be some shocks to the figures at some point this year. It's hard to see where anymore money is coming from. Maybe city bonuses will help in the southeast for the next couple of months? I'm expecting rises in the following months. But then I think this will be followed by an even bigger vacuum which will be the catalyst.

Big markers will be when national hpi hits the big fat zero, possibly combined with one or even two interest rate rises and unemployment/bankruptcy playing a bigger and bigger part in the news. If we see all these things together the public will panic and the spin that seems plausible now (to the non-HPCer) will just look down right stupid.

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It's already starting to hit the fan...

It will continue to hit the fan..

Quite likely the fan will still be being hit in five years time...

Possibly the fan itself might break if it gets hit any longer that this...

Stay away from the fan!

:P

- Pye

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It's already starting to hit the fan...

It will continue to hit the fan..

Quite likely the fan will still be being hit in five years time...

Possibly the fan itself might break if it gets hit any longer that this...

Stay away from the fan!

:P

- Pye

One smelly fan(nie!)

:D:D:D:D

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Well, I wouldn't try to comment on elsewhere, but in Scotland, it might be a wait.

People are servicing there debt without issue.

Interest rates are not seen as a long term issue; they barely feature in anyones conciousness these days. Most seem to believe they will stay low forever, and when I talk to the average Joe about the latest BOE descision, most always they dont even know they were meeting.

As has been reported, people have weaned themselves off the debt binge and have cleared, or are clearing, the dreaded credit cards. People are a lot more savvy with there cash it seems than say 2 years ago.

Lots of jobs about, especially if you have a decent skill. I work in Engineering, and thats still very healthy and in demand. The early/mid 20's age bracket with a crap degree are having a hard time though, but that is fuelling the renter market. As are the call centre worker people. Hence why the lower end (ex council/lower price private) BTL market is very healthy. The 2 bed 180k flat guys are having it harder, but mostly they are hanging in there though. They would rather subsidise a flat that lays empty for 3 months before a new Tenant is found that subsidise a Pension. I'm not saying thats right or wrong, but its the general feeling.

Council housing - simply not getting built, just those "link" homes, where you need to have some real issues, and usually be a single mum with children to get one.

I think you'll see a slowdown in the amount of BMW's and Jeeps parked outside modest homes, I know the "posh" car dealers are a little quiet right now, and houses were taking longer to sell (although definately picking up now), but all in all, its much as it has been. Housing stock on the EA's books is selling (Remax in particular seem to shift a massive amount), and new build family homes are definately selling well in particular.

Maybe its because up here is a lot more affordable than it is elsewhere in the country, who knows?

Edited by billy-g

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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