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I Told You So

Cbi Factory Order Drop Slows, Output Seen Rising

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On top of the BoE news today it appears that the manufacturing sector is starting to recover, short sterling off 5.5 to 6.5 ticks.

Does that mean IR's could rise?


Of course, but not for a while IMO.

Since the expectation has been for a cut for some time, I think we will need to go through a long period of static rates, so as to allow sentiment and expectation to change.

I think this process of going through a cycle of lower-stable-higher rate expectations is inevitable. Too much shock to the system to go from lower to higher in one move. Unless something really drastic happens of course :ph34r:

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An order book balance of -18 is still a weak position.

Although rate cuts would seem ridiculous now, if they were not justified by and order book balance of -26, how can they be justified by a value of -18?

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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