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Crash ! Then And Now

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Maybe it is different ……..

We now have the lowest number of FTBs in 25 years, yes 25 years that supersedes the low numbers of the early 90’s.

True, interest rates aren’t 14% now but back then we didn’t have the consumer debt we now have because of that fact.

People didn’t buy MEW cars and live MEW lifestyles at 14% either.

The high street is suffering the worst losses for 45 years!!!!! That’s different.

We won’t mention the rises in gas, oil, council tax and unemployment.

I bought a house in late 1994 as soon as I could afford to buy and at 3.5 times my salary because that was the maximum that you could borrow at that time. I think the repayment rate was 6.5% then. Yet, house prices continued to fall for a further 2 years even with falling interest rates.

The Gospel according to the BBC.

Most people take these headlines as the honest truth because “it was on the BBC” it must be true. Spin works, it’s true, tell the people everything’s fine and they’ll believe it.

Rightmove wasn’t around the last time to conjure up such fantasy +200k average figures. Why do we believe such an average price +50k discrepancy anyway?

Nationwide and the Halifax didn’t try so hard to talk up the market last time, they seemed to admit defeat early on and talk it down with regular pessimistic reports interlaced with a few implausible predictions for growth in the next year.

This time is different, they’ve learnt the dark art of juggle & spin.

This time, anybody who bought a property since July 2004 has probably

(unless they’ve built a west wing/conservatory or laminated the floors in magnolia)

paid more than their house is now worth and lost up to 10% if they had to sell today.

But don’t tell them that. Not that they’d believe you anyway.

The Times TUE 02 JUN 1992

Falling house prices trap 2m borrowers AT LEAST 278,000 first-time buyers have mortgages larger than the current values of their properties, according to official figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

And the best is yet to come, the demise of the (we need more)

“Executive Luxury/sheltered housing flat”

The Times MON 12 OCT 1992

Flat prices fall more than houses

FLATS are falling faster in value than houses in the property slump, with the greatest price falls shown by two-bedroom, two-bathroom flats. While houses have gone down by 5.6 cent over the past year, flats have fallen by 10 per cent.

But how can we make a difference in our own area, towns, villages etc If there isn't a local community forum?

The local newspapers certainly DO NOT and WILL NOT publish any letters or articles that don't ramp the market with "There's never been a better time with the local property market so buoyant" ( a recurring favourite of my local rag)

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Guest Winners and Losers

I bought in London in December 1997. The vendor had bought the property in 1988 and was in negative equity when they sold it to me, almost 10 YEARS LATER. Wise up everyone, it could be very long and painful. In the space of 5 years I more than tripled my money - by pure chance. Now the shoe is on the other foot (just about), so I'm not going to be smug about it. It can all be gone in a flash. Out on a limb here, but I think UK prices will slip back to late 2003/ early 2004 levels.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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