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BoredTrainBuilder

Most Sensitive Barometer Of Direction Of Market

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It's all there, printed in black and white in the land registry. I posted here a while back as well an article from a few years back, by the BoE - I think it's still on their site in the archives - all about Gazundering and the role of downward pressure excerted by buyers in a falling market that also confirmed nicely that rising transactions are common in a falling market and often signal breakdowns to a new, lower price level, in much the same way as guzumping drives a rising market.

It occurs to me, following on from this logic, that the prevalence or otherwise of gazundering/gazumping should be the most sensitive measure of which direction the market is moving. Gazundering would be completely pointless and self-defeating in a rising market and the corollary should be more true.

It would certainly be better than counting estate agents' boards, spotting that tat-shop sales have declined by a few %, following housing markets in San Diego, assessing whether Saudia Arabian oil-production has finally peaked or any of the other ludicrous leading indicators that have been proposed on HPC.co.uk in recent months.

Is there any way of quantifying the number of gazunders or gazumps?

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It occurs to me, following on from this logic, that the prevalence or otherwise of gazundering/gazumping should be the most sensitive measure of which direction the market is moving. Gazundering would be completely pointless and self-defeating in a rising market and the corollary should be more true.

It would certainly be better than counting estate agents' boards, spotting that tat-shop sales have declined by a few %, following housing markets in San Diego, assessing whether Saudia Arabian oil-production has finally peaked or any of the other ludicrous leading indicators that have been proposed on HPC.co.uk in recent months.

Is there any way of quantifying the number of gazunders or gazumps?

trouble is you might be able to get some figures on gazumping but sellers are too embarassed to admit of gazunder

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It occurs to me, following on from this logic, that the prevalence or otherwise of gazundering/gazumping should be the most sensitive measure of which direction the market is moving. Gazundering would be completely pointless and self-defeating in a rising market and the corollary should be more true.

It would certainly be better than counting estate agents' boards, spotting that tat-shop sales have declined by a few %, following housing markets in San Diego, assessing whether Saudia Arabian oil-production has finally peaked or any of the other ludicrous leading indicators that have been proposed on HPC.co.uk in recent months.

Is there any way of quantifying the number of gazunders or gazumps?

Sadly, such information is likely to be best known by Estate Agents; this being the case, you might as well use next week's lottery numbers... ;)

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Selling our property ended up in the buyers gazumping each other, all actively encouraged by the EAs. Haven't exchanged yet so maybe we will sugffer the gazunder bit later on.

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thats easy, all you need to do is quantify the spread of trades to asking prices. in other words I guess how much "rightmoves asking prices" diverges from the "land registry" prices paid. seeing as Rightmove sees asking prices at 200,000+ +2.7% we shall see how much pricing power the sellers really have when the numbers are in the real database.

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Don't Hometrack measure offer accepted prices in releation to asking prices? Not quite what you were asking for but it might be a measure of how far below asking the transactions are. Could give a differential between suppoed "property prices" and the actual state of the market.

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Hi,

That is the trickier one because that is 'internal' market data for the lenders and estate agents until well after the sale is recorded in the registry. The BoE report also expanded beyond transactions to approvals also, since rising approvals in a falling market often eventually come through as price falls due to the influence of gazumping. Still, where there is a will there is a way, thinking caps on. As a point, did you notice that big song and dance the estate agnencies made the other week or so about the dishonourable 'gazumping' tactics of current buyers? Remember the mirth it bought us for a week here? Sooooo, why are they so concerned, to the point of going all over the media to deplore gazumping buyers if the market is exploding now? It wasn't exploding for several years in the early nineties, despite rising transactions, quite the opposite, there were massive price falls as the market adjusted to more realistic prices for the prevailing cost-affordability issues and economic conditions. Think also. Gazumping hits the profits of estate agencies in many ways, including the time and effort expent in securing a sale. For lenders likewise and more so in that they will wish to saddle as large a debt as they can get off you. Bigger debt = bigger profit. Eventually many EA's get to the point where they need revenue coming through the books again and may compete against eachother by offering a quicker sale, albeit at a lower price than the rival. Aren't we seeing many already advising clients to drop the price or value 'realisitcally' to ensure a sale? It works both ways. When you are stuck in an unsold home with new adventures to pursue but cannot, that is just as frustarting as a someone wishing to buy but unable.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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