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Percentage of first time buyers


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So the CML figures for Q3 2004 would be the continuation of the chart from 1993 above.

I guess the NAEA's chart represents FTBs as a percentage of enquiring purchasers.

Different sources, different figures. The CML figures represent properties purchased with a mortgage from CML members, whereas the NAEA figures represent current enquiries by potential purchasers at their members.

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So now first time buyers number virtually nothing.

Everything has happened as I'd predicted even more quickly than I'd thought. As soon as the speculative gains dried up all but a pool of naive 'long term' investors would stop buying.

As the market stalled, the 50k deposit off Mummy & Daddy crowd would also stop buying leaving practically 0% FTBs.

With no BTLers around the market would have to sell to traditional FTBs with real-world incomes but they are nowhere near current prices. It looks like 50% of the traditioanl FTbs were economically cleansed by 2002 and many economically cleansed before then.

The crash could be very big.

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Good find, BP. Yes, I remember reading in recent (London) articles that the number of FTBs was now below 10%...

Doesn't take a genius to figure out that the market can't move without FTBs. Chains cannot complete without FTBs - so they are getting longer or frequently collapsing and having to start over again, while more competing vendors arrive by the day.

Someone else has pointed this out - not only have FTBs been priced out long ago, but many would-be immediate FTBs have already been sucked onto the ladder in the last couple of years aided with big MEWed deposits from parents, so are no longer there to plug the gap when prices fall slightly.

BTL won't prop the market up.. they're deserting in droves... or trying to...

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Good find, BP. Yes, I remember reading in recent (London) articles that the number of FTBs was now below 10%...

Year - Total - % FSB - Total - FTB in 000's

1980 - 60.00 - 43.71 - 26.23

1981 - 60.64 - 47.07 - 28.54

1982 - 69.91 - 52.11 - 36.43

1983 - 79.37 - 50.12 - 39.78

1984 - 89.27 - 49.75 - 44.42

1985 - 89.44 - 52.08 - 46.58

1986 - 104.00 - 49.33 - 51.30

1987 - 92.29 - 47.51 - 43.85

1988 - 104.13 - 46.70 - 48.63

1989 - 73.80 - 51.42 - 37.95

1990 - 65.29 - 52.22 - 34.10

1991 - 60.28 - 46.68 - 28.14

1992 - 72.74 - 51.36 - 37.36

1993 - 79.27 - 54.69 - 43.36

1994 - 79.92 - 55.55 - 44.40

1995 - 66.55 - 52.73 - 35.09

1996 - 79.77 - 48.91 - 39.02

1997 - 91.97 - 45.43 - 41.78

1998 - 90.69 - 48.21 - 43.72

1999 - 104.49 - 47.48 - 49.61

2000 - 93.58 - 44.63 - 41.76

2001 - 109.48 - 43.26 - 47.36

2002 - 116.40 - 38.15 - 44.41

2003 - 104.33 - 29.82 - 31.11

2004 - 107.55 - 28.39 - 30.54

Next year 23,000 FSBers and 50% of the market will be girs power :lol::lol: .

Total House buyers in 000’s; % FSB and Total FSB in 000’s

The proportion of mortgages taken out by single women has risen from 9.8 per cent in 1983 to 23.1 per cent last year, said the Halifax.

Of course… Most of the men left FTBers market in 2003 (mind), and girls are left (hart).

1983 5.1% of the Total Market of 79,370 or 3.570

2003 6.8% of the Total Market of 104,330 or 7.185

5.1 against 6.8% hmmm A big difference!!!

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Only this data is available from CML Research. Results may be compared over time but care should be taken with pre-2000 figures.

Q1 2004 Average BTL loan was £100,167.00

looking at that first chart it looks like in the last crash that the number of FTBs actually fell alongside the fall in prices!! This is the opposite to BBBs "money on the sidelines" idea (at least wrt FTBs)....

To me that shows sentiment.

This is what I think may have happened.

Prices begin to fall, so banks tighten lending criteria, therefore more FTBs were priced out. By the time some of them were priced back in, falls were significant and still falling, so decided to stay put and "wait and see". (a wait and see strategy won't change market direction...and this is what the agents are saying buyers are doing in this falling market!), as price falls increased, they became more convinced of the correct course of action...wait.

In 1992 they returned to the market in droves. which seems to broadly agree with the point at which the falls slowed down and it went into phase 2 (generally flat with small falls). Also (looking at the nationwide charts) at about this time, prices had returned to their "trend" line...which by my calculations is also about the point where buying outweighed renting as the prefered financial option despite falling prices.

FTBs will return when prices return to trend

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