Realistbear Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 http://business.scotsman.com/finance.cfm?id=266972006 HOUSE prices in Scotland continued to rise more slowly in the last quarter, according to the latest Lloyds TSB Scotland House Price Monitor. The report showed Aberdeen and Dundee both recording slight quarterly falls, yet continuing to show the greatest annual rises. Aberdeen's average fell by 4.1 per cent over the three months while in Dundee, prices fell by 1 per cent over the same period. Looks like Scotland does not know which way to go with a buying frenzy whipping people into ecstatic spending in one region while correctioons begin to bite in others. Annualized crash for Aberdeen now at 16.4%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellybean Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 (edited) http://business.scotsman.com/finance.cfm?id=266972006 HOUSE prices in Scotland continued to rise more slowly in the last quarter, according to the latest Lloyds TSB Scotland House Price Monitor. The report showed Aberdeen and Dundee both recording slight quarterly falls, yet continuing to show the greatest annual rises. Aberdeen's average fell by 4.1 per cent over the three months while in Dundee, prices fell by 1 per cent over the same period. Looks like Scotland does not know which way to go with a buying frenzy whipping people into ecstatic spending in one region while correctioons begin to bite in others. Annualized crash for Aberdeen now at 16.4%. These cities have the compound problem of rising unemployement. A rediculous proportion of the population, 10-20% is forecast to move south to the central belt in the next few years. Why inflation of house prices happend at all is beyond me. Gross stupidity. Edited February 21, 2006 by jellybean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alba Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 It is quite interesting what a different set of statistics can say about the same country/cities! See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/region12.stm This casts a totally different light on what is happening in Scotland and Aberdeen and Dundee as mentioned. According to the above figs, Aberdeen is showing + 9.4%, Dundee + 10.4% in the last quarter. Also every Local Authority area is showing an increase in the last quarter (many significant) except Inverclyde. On the ground, my experience correlates with the latter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashCrash Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 It is quite interesting what a different set of statistics can say about the same country/cities! See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/region12.stm This casts a totally different light on what is happening in Scotland and Aberdeen and Dundee as mentioned. According to the above figs, Aberdeen is showing + 9.4%, Dundee + 10.4% in the last quarter. Also every Local Authority area is showing an increase in the last quarter (many significant) except Inverclyde. On the ground, my experience correlates with the latter. Yeap, This goes on to show how choosy people can be if they dont want to see the other side. For example if we go by the very stats you choose to indicate the direction of House Prices, you choose to ignore that Aberdeen City shows annual FALL of 2.7%(2.7%) Dundee City shows annual FALL of 0.3%(-0.3%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alba Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Yeap, This goes on to show how choosy people can be if they dont want to see the other side. For example if we go by the very stats you choose to indicate the direction of House Prices, you choose to ignore that Aberdeen City shows annual FALL of 2.7%(2.7%) Dundee City shows annual FALL of 0.3%(-0.3%) Correct me if I am wrong but I thought your post was dealing with the last quarter ie HOUSE prices in Scotland continued to rise more slowly in the last quarter, according to the latest Lloyds TSB Scotland House Price Monitor. The report showed Aberdeen and Dundee both recording slight quarterly falls, yet continuing to show the greatest annual rises. Aberdeen's average fell by 4.1 per cent over the three months while in Dundee, prices fell by 1 per cent over the same period. I agree that YOY is different, but I also note the significant quarterly increases virtually right across the country. I would also have thought that the most recent quarterly stats would be indicative of the current state of the market. Despite your heading, Scotland is manifestly not currently slumping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 21, 2006 Author Share Posted February 21, 2006 Correct me if I am wrong but I thought your post was dealing with the last quarter ie HOUSE prices in Scotland continued to rise more slowly in the last quarter, according to the latest Lloyds TSB Scotland House Price Monitor. The report showed Aberdeen and Dundee both recording slight quarterly falls, yet continuing to show the greatest annual rises. Aberdeen's average fell by 4.1 per cent over the three months while in Dundee, prices fell by 1 per cent over the same period. I agree that YOY is different, but I also note the significant quarterly increases virtually right across the country. I would also have thought that the most recent quarterly stats would be indicative of the current state of the market. Despite your heading, Scotland is manifestly not currently slumping. The Quarterly figures showing a sharp slump (4.1% over the 3 months for Aberdeen) seem to suggest that the direction of house prices is no longer up. As Lloyds point out, the market is slowing with some areas showing declines in the most recent quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alba Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 The Quarterly figures showing a sharp slump (4.1% over the 3 months for Aberdeen) seem to suggest that the direction of house prices is no longer up. As Lloyds point out, the market is slowing with some areas showing declines in the most recent quarter. We have come full circle. The stats I referred to, do not show the above. When it comes to conflicting data I resort to personal knowledge. My personal knowledge and experience indicates that there is no downward trend. It is in fact the exact opposite. I can provide anecdotal information but I sense that you are entrenched in your belief. Sorry to be an apostate and not spout the received wisdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 21, 2006 Author Share Posted February 21, 2006 We have come full circle. The stats I referred to, do not show the above. When it comes to conflicting data I resort to personal knowledge. My personal knowledge and experience indicates that there is no downward trend. It is in fact the exact opposite. I can provide anecdotal information but I sense that you are entrenched in your belief. Sorry to be an apostate and not spout the received wisdom. The downward trend is based on LLoyds/TSB's data. Seems that all the VIs have their own story making it hard to know which one to believe. The spin is getting so heavy out there that the crash may well be happening and no one is aware of it other than by anecdotal evidence. In my area, I see house prices being reduced by more than 10% and yet this "data" does not seem to be picked up by Rightmove or other VIs. And we see Tony Blair's gaff being marketed at a huge loss which suggests that house prices are falling in upscale London also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alba Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 The downward trend is based on LLoyds/TSB's data. Seems that all the VIs have their own story making it hard to know which one to believe. The spin is getting so heavy out there that the crash may well be happening and no one is aware of it other than by anecdotal evidence. In my area, I see house prices being reduced by more than 10% and yet this "data" does not seem to be picked up by Rightmove or other VIs. And we see Tony Blair's gaff being marketed at a huge loss which suggests that house prices are falling in upscale London also. Don't get me wrong. I would love to see a significant downturn, if only to redress the balance of a substantial loss in the past year. Unfortunately I sold and banked, and the market in this area continued on an upward trend. I have unsuccessfuly been looking to buy back in purely out of fear of further loss. What scares me the most is buying back in and consolidating the loss. I am in a bit of a quandery really. I hope and keep checking for a fall but cannot find any evidence of one and my experience on the ground confirms this unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellybean Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 (edited) What scares me the most is buying back in and consolidating the loss. I am in a bit of a quandery really. I hope and keep checking for a fall but cannot find any evidence of one and my experience on the ground confirms this unfortunately. You cant be looking very hard then. I have friends in Edinburgh currently trying to sell a house and their is absolutely no interest. Of the three houses for sale on my street, two have been under offer for at least 4 months, and the third is still for sale, as it has been for over 6 months. No comparison with the beggining of last year when for sale signs did not last a week. I cant see how all the recent redundancy news is going to improve the situation. Housing is unafordable at the moment, and unless there is a crash, will remain so for at least a decade. Edit: Also I forgot that the two houses under renovation on the main street have had worked stop for several months as has the new development on the outside of the vilage. Not exactly booming now is it? And we are 20 min from Edinburgh. Edited February 21, 2006 by jellybean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Scotmans simply noted that Edinburgh is the most stable market (without mentioning any increase). Presumably because there was actually a fall! So why didn't they mention the bleedin' fall! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 According to Alba Aberdeen is still booming (over on 'what are prices doing..'). I'm not convinced. Anyone else know? Happy to be proven wrong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homeless Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 dundee has lost practically half its population since the 60s The coucil there had to demolish half the council schemes built, as the was no tenents to fill the vacancies.even today the waiting list for a council house in dundee is about 2 weeks. you can also rent very cheaply in dundee. And the population is continuing to drop. thing to remember is at one time dundee had ,more millionaires per square mile than anywhere else in the world ( yes this is a fact), it was utterly loaded. The jute industry disappeared though and that was the end of that, and dundee has never recovered.its the epicentre of post industrial decline i believe the population reached 300k at the hieght of the jute industry boom, and by the 60s was about 170k, and now about 120k with a chunk of that transient students.education being the only significant employer left. i think this trul puts to bed the idea this housing boom is the result of shortages in properties, or dundee would dropping in price as the population did.i think the same can be said for glasgow and liverpool and other industrial towns that now have no purpose and declining populations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashedOutAndBurned Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 (edited) Scottish prices are uterrly, utterly, unbelievable as wages are so tiny, even in the big urban centres. In glasgow nearly half of households have no wage earner, so who the heck are these millions of yuppies buying 190k designer flats? I remember going for a s*****y sounding graduate position in Edinburgh in 2001 and got all excited - I'd even picked mentally picked out the 45k tenement flat I was going to buy with my 18k salary (I'd guessed from the demanding job description it couldn't be much less than that) and I think my jaw literally dropped when they said the starting salary was 10k! If I hadn't been loaded up with student debt, ironically, as a single 10k worker I'd have been far closer to home ownership than now in a couple with two half-reasable incomes maxed out. Edited February 23, 2006 by CrashedOutAndBurned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homeless Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Scottish prices are uterrly, utterly, unbelievable as wages are so tiny, even in the big urban centres. In glasgow nearly half of households have no wage earner, so who the heck are these millions of yuppies buying 190k designer flats? I remember going for a s*****y sounding graduate position in Edinburgh in 2001 and got all excited - I'd even picked mentally picked out the 45k tenement flat I was going to buy with my 18k salary (I'd guessed from the demanding job description it couldn't be much less than that) and I think my jaw literally dropped when they said the starting salary was 10k! If I hadn't been loaded up with student debt, ironically, as a single 10k worker I'd have been far closer to home ownership than now in a couple with two half-reasable incomes maxed out. 10k for a graduate what a bloody cheek ehhh. ya get more working in asda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unexpected Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Well they dont come much more bearish than me, but unfortunately I can back Alba about the situation in Aberdeen. I dont expect prices to rise much further but properties are definately selling up here. I moved from SE London where it was dead as a dodo but here in Aberdeen its quite depressing to see all the excitement about buying houses. Its only to be expected though with the job situation in Aberdeen. There are many many well paid jobs probably higher paying than London, but you can still buy a 3 bed semi for the price of a studio in London. HPI has been approx 100% in the past 5 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Well they dont come much more bearish than me, but unfortunately I can back Alba about the situation in Aberdeen. I dont expect prices to rise much further but properties are definately selling up here. I moved from SE London where it was dead as a dodo but here in Aberdeen its quite depressing to see all the excitement about buying houses. Its only to be expected though with the job situation in Aberdeen. There are many many well paid jobs probably higher paying than London, but you can still buy a 3 bed semi for the price of a studio in London. HPI has been approx 100% in the past 5 years I stand corrected in that case. Sorry Alba! Why are they reporting drops in the media then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unexpected Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 I stand corrected in that case. Sorry Alba! Why are they reporting drops in the media then? Ya never know though. Perhaps this is the turning point and the offers over asking price arent reaching what they were last quarter. That would be great news and I hope there's something in what you're saying WaL. Alba, I'd really think twice before buying now because you know sentiment can change very quickly in this city as it has in the past. There are many foreigners (including english ) here and they will walk off and leave the keys with the bank just as they did last time. Its all down to the Oil industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homeless Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Ya never know though. Perhaps this is the turning point and the offers over asking price arent reaching what they were last quarter. That would be great news and I hope there's something in what you're saying WaL. Alba, I'd really think twice before buying now because you know sentiment can change very quickly in this city as it has in the past. There are many foreigners (including english ) here and they will walk off and leave the keys with the bank just as they did last time. Its all down to the Oil industry. yup soon as the oil goes aberdeen will turn into another dundee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldmercury Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 I can confirm that Aberdeen is on the up what a joke though 80k for ex council in a drug ridden slum. I’ve heard various stories to confirm this situation. Aberdeen is always last to catch anything, now it’s the property boom, thought by the time it crashes for reasonable prices there will be no oil, what an investment! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy-g Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Well, I'm not that far from Glasgow (to the south) and there have been 2 houses in my street for sale in the last 6 months. One due to a death (old fella) and one due to reposession, bought and modernised by a builder, and the subsequent sell on. Re. the repo; she was here when I bought in '97, but always behind with her bills since I moved in, and fairly open about it. Both have sold, and both have achieved above the asking price. And believe me, where I live has p!ss poor wages. Definately no sign of a crash here. Houses aren't selling in 3 days as they once were, year before last for example, but they are selling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunderhead Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 so who the heck are these millions of yuppies buying 190k designer flats? Are many of them English, by any chance? When I see TV news items from Scotland, with a reporter asking people in the street for their views, I'm surprised how many people have English accents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy-g Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Might well have a point there Dunderhead. Lots and lots of English people in Glasgow city centre at the moment, although they mainly seem to rent. I know a few people in property (BTL; cue abuse )through my wife, and at least one of those people has English tenants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Might well have a point there Dunderhead. Lots and lots of English people in Glasgow city centre at the moment, although they mainly seem to rent. I know a few people in property (BTL; cue abuse )through my wife, and at least one of those people has English tenants. I love Glasgow, could quite happily live there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy-g Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Glasgow is a fantastic place to live. I live 20 odd miles south of it, and with a short drive I have breathtaking scenery (the clyde vally) and then in the other direction I have Glasgow. If you have a decent skill there are plenty of jobs; maybe not what your used to salary-wise, but 30k isnt much of a problem to achieve if your qualified in either computing or engineering for example. The city centre has phenomenal architecture and there are some excellent theatres and clubs. Hell, you could do worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.