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gonefarwest

Cnaqo....can You Explain This Me Please.thanks.

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I'm fairly bullish on

government bonds of 5-10 year maturity.

cash.

Yen

Yuan HKD long term

turkish Euro debt.

IVA merchants, and insolvency practitioners.

the slide should start once the Bank of Japan starts to raise interest rates which is currently due to start in April apparently. tell you what if we get through 12 months and these assets have not slid Ill change my mind. Inverted yield curves are everywhere these days. the upper point of the global business cycle is upon us. time to save and make like a bear methinks.

Cnaqo can you explain the above please. What does it mean? Will the above effect Asia Markets, etc? how much interest rates raises damages Gold price?

I need to know as much as possible as I started goldifying my paper..... :unsure:

Many thanks.

Edited by gonefarwest

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Cnaqo can you explain the above please. What does it mean? Will the above effect Asia Markets, etc? how much interest rates raises damages Gold price?

I need to know as much as possible as I started goldifying my paper..... :unsure:

Many thanks.

I think jonpo is expecting a period of deflation or even a depression like in the 1930's. Basically all prices tumbled, real estate, stocks, bonds - everything. The only thing to appreciate in value was cold hard cash. Gold actually did well, but this was probably due to the fact the US government fixed the price of gold hence it couldn't go down in value (oh, and they made it illegal to hold).

Regards,

crude.

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The FED will not let deflation happen. They have chosen to hyperinflate, this is why they will no longer publish M3 data starting from march. M3 is the total quantity of dollars in circulation.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm

Discontinuance of M3

On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars.

The Chinese and other central banks are increasingly reluctant to to finance the US deficits by buying US long bonds. So the FED willl print, print, print, to buy their own bonds and keep long term interest rates low. This would show up in M3, which is why they'll no longer publish it.

I leave it to yourself to imagine what this printing exercise will do to the value of the dollar and other paper currencies.

Protect yourself, get gold.

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If you think that inflation is such a forgone conclusion then why not sell 30 year Tbonds in order to finance the purchase your precious gold. after all the price of paying principle in 30years should be nearly 0.

a flaw much of the pro gold commentary I see on the internet is an general ignorance of money and how it works.

For instance consider the following equation from the quantity theory of money (Chicago School).

M*V = P*Q

Most reseach seems to suggest that the velocity of Money (V) stays relativly constant but in a recession or an event such as bird flu, money can slow down as people try to build up savings or pay down debt. paying down debt/credit is caustic because it not only reduces the velocity (V) of money but also the Quantity (M) of it in circulation. in such a situation either the Quantity of goods purchased will go down significantly (leading to overcapacity and stuctural unemployment) or the price levels of those goods will go down (price deflation).

the important thing is that when average numpty UK couple wake up one day and realise they have to either pay off the huge amount of debt they have built up or go bankrupt and loose everything. this reduces (M) because the money that was created (credit) is liquidated.

I often wonder why gold comentators the "Mogambo guru" and his other pro gold ilk don't wake up to the data that is in front of them...

"The Mogambo Guru - Other articles

Mon 13 Feb, 2006

Total Fed Credit has gone to zero for over a month now. This is, for me, the ultimate in bad news."

duh, duh duh. get with the program guys the money creating binge by the Fed and BoJ is over.

The fed lent out no money for over a whole freaking month and they are still raising rates!!!!!! and we are supposed to beleive this is going to end in hyperinflation via an increase in P and M ?! eh get real, look at the action of the people on the mainstream board, people are SAVING and paying off DEBT. their demand for holding money is increasing and their demand for borrowing in decreasing. still if you don't want to listen to me then let the market show us. its your money your choices, you decide ;) gold has had a great run and ive made a few quid out of it but the times they are a changing.

I disagree with the majority of this borad which seem hooked on gold and shares. in an environment when investment is everywhere the best investment could be no investment, Bernanke is a hawk in a helecopter he is no Keynesian. he has studied the great deflation he will make it as easy a transition as he can but ultimatly the adjustment may be "painful".

Edited by jonpo

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in times of wars and prolonged conflicts what do US historically do? do they keep inflating to keep the war machines going or do they deflate which causes less paper money for war machines going?

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If you think that inflation is such a forgone conclusion then why not sell 30 year Tbonds in order to finance the purchase your precious gold. after all the price of paying principle in 30years should be nearly 0.

a flaw much of the pro gold commentary I see on the internet is an general ignorance of money and how it works.

For instance consider the following equation from the quantity theory of money (Chicago School).

M*V = P*Q

Most reseach seems to suggest that the velocity of Money (V) stays relativly constant but in a recession or an event such as bird flu, money can slow down as people try to build up savings or pay down debt. paying down debt/credit is caustic because it not only reduces the velocity (V) of money but also the Quantity (M) of it in circulation. in such a situation either the Quantity of goods purchased will go down significantly (leading to overcapacity and stuctural unemployment) or the price levels of those goods will go down (price deflation).

the important thing is that when average numpty UK couple wake up one day and realise they have to either pay off the huge amount of debt they have built up or go bankrupt and loose everything. this reduces (M) because the money that was created (credit) is liquidated.

I often wonder why gold comentators the "Mogambo guru" and his other pro gold ilk don't wake up to the data that is in front of them...

"The Mogambo Guru - Other articles

Mon 13 Feb, 2006

Total Fed Credit has gone to zero for over a month now. This is, for me, the ultimate in bad news."

duh, duh duh. get with the program guys the money creating binge by the Fed and BoJ is over.

The fed lent out no money for over a whole freaking month and they are still raising rates!!!!!! and we are supposed to beleive this is going to end in hyperinflation via an increase in P and M ?! eh get real, look at the action of the people on the mainstream board, people are SAVING and paying off DEBT. their demand for holding money is increasing and their demand for borrowing in decreasing. still if you don't want to listen to me then let the market show us. its your money your choices, you decide ;) gold has had a great run and ive made a few quid out of it but the times they are a changing.

I disagree with the majority of this borad which seem hooked on gold and shares. in an environment when investment is everywhere the best investment could be no investment, Bernanke is a hawk in a helecopter he is no Keynesian. he has studied the great deflation he will make it as easy a transition as he can but ultimatly the adjustment may be "painful".

Can you give a link to the

The Mogambo Guru - Other articles

Mon 13 Feb, 2006

Total Fed Credit has gone to zero for over a month now. This is, for me, the ultimate in bad news."

The closest one I can find is this http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jun292005.html

Oddball

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...

The FED will not let deflation happen. They have chosen to hyperinflate, this is why they will no longer publish M3 data starting from march. M3 is the total quantity of dollars in circulation.

...

I don't really think the Fed have a choice about what's going to happen. I really don't think any country can choose to hyperinflate or choose not to have deflation. The Fed can print as many dollars as they want, but in order to get those dollars into the system it requires people / corporations to borrow the money. If people start saving, tightening their belts and stop borrowing how's the Fed to get this money into the system?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would have thought hyperinflation would occur when there's a complete collapse of a currency - I don't really think this is going to happen to the dollar. America is still a damned big country with a lot going for it economically.

Tbh, I've no idea what's going to happen, but something big is going on. I hold gold just in case. I personally think we're in for a deflationary period, in which case my gold will probably go down in value, but it's a nice safety net. I also have cashed out of shares and I'm holding cash at the moment. Time will tell whether I've made the right choice...

Regards,

crude

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I don't really think the Fed have a choice about what's going to happen. I really don't think any country can choose to hyperinflate or choose not to have deflation. The Fed can print as many dollars as they want, but in order to get those dollars into the system it requires people / corporations to borrow the money. If people start saving, tightening their belts and stop borrowing how's the Fed to get this money into the system?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would have thought hyperinflation would occur when there's a complete collapse of a currency - I don't really think this is going to happen to the dollar. America is still a damned big country with a lot going for it economically.

Tbh, I've no idea what's going to happen, but something big is going on. I hold gold just in case. I personally think we're in for a deflationary period, in which case my gold will probably go down in value, but it's a nice safety net. I also have cashed out of shares and I'm holding cash at the moment. Time will tell whether I've made the right choice...

Regards,

crude

Right.

Japan is in fact the archetypal example of why the fed cannot just inflate. they have been trying for years to no avail. there is also a telling precedent of the 1998 LTCM debacle from the last time BoJ thought about the end of free money

http://www.forex-sam.com/images/chartsmont...jpy-monthly.gif

See the big red line on the far right.... thats the plughole for global liquidity that is.

the end.

http://www.inthesetimes.org/issue/24/23/rosen2423.jpg

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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