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wifeling-smi

Desperate No-housewife

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Hi - my husband is a frequent poster on HPC. He spends much of his time checking facts and figures about the impending House Price Crash and tries very hard to reassure me that house prices WILL come down. (He says about 30 to 50%). He is SO lovely to me, that sometimes I wonder if he is just being kind and trying to make me feel more hopeful about the housing situation.

Some of the time I feel optimistic and hopeful that sometime we will be able to afford to buy a house, but so frequently, I read an article in a newspaper, hear a tv or radio news report or hear people talking the housing market up.

I am really beginning to worry that the HPC is never going to happen. I don't mean prices coming down small amounts - I mean a CRASH - it's the only way hard-working, 30-something couples can buy anything - they need to at least halve in value.

I know this is a basic and non-informed post on this forum, but I would really appreciate someone giving me a few facts about why so many people are convinced this crash will happen. I just need a little bit of hope please! :wacko:

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I know what you mean... I am nearly 34 and am as far away from being able to buy as ever.

When I'm feeling despondant I contemplate the "You are here" graph on the front page for a while... it never fails to cheer me up. Each of the previous peaks are just that - peaks - where the downward part almost perfectly negates the upward part. The current peak will be no different, it's part of the natural order of things.

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The bubble has gone on for quite a bit longer than most of us expected- so it's natural to have some doubts about whether there will actually be a crash- but there surely must be. I personally take the view that the bigger the bubble, the larger the resulting crash :).

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The boom has appeared based on loose credit and historically low interest rates after September 11th 2001.

Interest rates are rising in the states now so there could be some "interesting" times ahead.

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I am really beginning to worry that the HPC is never going to happen. I don't mean prices coming down small amounts - I mean a CRASH - it's the only way hard-working, 30-something couples can buy anything - they need to at least halve in value.

As I see it – we are at a junction –

If interest rates go up more than ½ a point then a crash is more than likely – as people have borrowed on buy to let’s that they can not afford (once a crash starts it’s unlikely it will stop until the bottom)

The other side to the coin is that the bank of England will reduce rates to help the economy this will make house prices shot off again upwards.

There are things stopping either choice happening + there are other things to consider like the lack of first time buyers and the affordability of houses (and many more)

It’s an important decision what to do and information on this site is very one sided – try to make your own opinions from facts and not just what people think.

Personally I am waiting a little while for things to pan out – but my bet is on interest rates going to about 3.5% and house prices going up again by huge amounts.

There is also what’s happening in the US which will effect us but the question is when not if

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Guest prudence

As I see it – we are at a junction –

If interest rates go up more than ½ a point then a crash is more than likely – as people have borrowed on buy to let’s that they can not afford (once a crash starts it’s unlikely it will stop until the bottom)

The other side to the coin is that the bank of England will reduce rates to help the economy this will make house prices shot off again upwards.

There are things stopping either choice happening + there are other things to consider like the lack of first time buyers and the affordability of houses (and many more)

It’s an important decision what to do and information on this site is very one sided – try to make your own opinions from facts and not just what people think.

Personally I am waiting a little while for things to pan out – but my bet is on interest rates going to about 3.5% and house prices going up again by huge amounts.

There is also what’s happening in the US which will effect us but the question is when not if

to an income multiple of what.................

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I know this is a basic and non-informed post on this forum, but I would really appreciate someone giving me a few facts about why so many people are convinced this crash will happen. I just need a little bit of hope please! :wacko:

There are many reasons to believe that prices wil crash. The article below is quite well-written and might help to enlighten you. By the way, the market crashed back in the late 80s. At the time nobody believed that prices could ever fall. Seems we have the same mentality now.

Don't worry!

http://investedinterests2005.blogspot.com/

Edited by othello

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oh

Edited by wifeling-smi

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ignore the badly disguised estate-agents with nothing to do all day but reply to people needing real help on this site.

Estate agent – you mean someone who sold to rent a year and a half ago – who is more than worried about present developments

Your post looks like you wanted to post under your other name!

They're already coming down Wifeling Smi

Edited by look to the past

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Personally I am waiting a little while for things to pan out – but my bet is on interest rates going to about 3.5% and house prices going up again by huge amounts.

To all who think that house prices could go up again by 'huge amounts' I ask you... whois going to buy them? I'm after a realistic list of likely purchasers. Prices can only go up if there are enough people with the will and money to pay. I personally don't see that wages have risen enough to support even the current prices and certainly not future rises. So who, precisely, will be buying when house prices go up again by 'huge amounts'?

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To all who think that house prices could go up again by 'huge amounts' I ask you... whois going to buy them? I'm after a realistic list of likely purchasers. Prices can only go up if there are enough people with the will and money to pay. I personally don't see that wages have risen enough to support even the current prices and certainly not future rises. So who, precisely, will be buying when house prices go up again by 'huge amounts'?

Are they not even higher in Ireland because of their low interest rates?

Last I heard they were about 10 times the average wage – it does question the affordability argument

Also the fact that rightmove said that asking prices have gone up by 2.7% last month – is that not a large amount!

Edited by look to the past

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Are they not even higher in Ireland because of their low interest rates?

Last I heard they were about 10 times the average wage – it does question the affordability argument

Also the fact that rightmove said that asking prices have gone up by 2.7% last month – is that not a large amount!

Asking prices are irrelevant - they can ask all they like! But you still didn't answer the question...

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Sometimes I think to myself we'd be better off having as many kids as possible & both going on the dole, I might try going on the sick it seems easy enough to get away with it in the UK

Then we'd get a nice council house & all our bills paid - sorted !

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Asking prices are irrelevant - they can ask all they like! But you still didn't answer the question...

There are plenty of people who would buy houses for plenty of reasons / BTL’ers / there could be a shortage of properties / people who have had money willed to them – the point being in Ireland affordability has gone but they still sell.

Asking prices are not irrelevant – rightmove is good for predicting they way the market is heading- the average sold price is still about 95% - so I will expect that hometrack will be reporting in 3-6 months time the same 2.7% ish increase.

People are still buying and will all pile in if they think it is a good investment – the bubble only lasted as long as it did because of investors even though houses were unaffordable, they did not stop going up because people just could not afford them. If interest rates were reduced enough then house prices would go up by huge amounts – just like Ireland

Hope I got it that time

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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