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non-FTBer

Will Massive Spring Supply Spike The Bubble?

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Just noticed something in my area:

Houses added in the last week on Rightmove: 47

Houses sold during February last year for same postcode: 52

Houses sold in Feb 04: 63.

Houses sole in Feb 03: 72 (highest number sold in Feb of any year).

The current rate of new props on Rightmove is about 47 * 4 per month (and getting faster each week).

Given that only about 1/2 of houses are on rightmove this would give a figure of about 47 * 4 * 2 = 376 new properties for sale each month.

Given that in even a healthy year for property sales only 72 have sold in Feb, and given the big backlog already for sale... this would represent a MASSIVE oversupply.

Could this cause the bubble to burst??

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Just noticed something in my area:

Houses added in the last week on Rightmove: 47

Houses sold during February last year for same postcode: 52

Houses sold in Feb 04: 63.

Houses sole in Feb 03: 72 (highest number sold in Feb of any year).

The current rate of new props on Rightmove is about 47 * 4 per month (and getting faster each week).

Given that only about 1/2 of houses are on rightmove this would give a figure of about 47 * 4 * 2 = 376 new properties for sale each month.

Given that in even a healthy year for property sales only 72 have sold in Feb, and given the big backlog already for sale... this would represent a MASSIVE oversupply.

Could this cause the bubble to burst??

yes! :D

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No

I have been counting property’s in two areas – in both the amount for sale is down significantly from it peak – there does not seem to be a problem with the amount of property’s for sale or any chance that this alone will cause a crash

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No

I have been counting property’s in two areas – in both the amount for sale is down significantly from it peak – there does not seem to be a problem with the amount of property’s for sale or any chance that this alone will cause a crash

Maybe it is different in some areas.

In my area the number of properties for sale is increasing very quickly and is far higher than I have ever seen it.

If there is a massive increase in volume and a decrease in sales (already seen in LR stats) then sooner or later there must be price drops, unless vendors sit waiting on unrealistic prices... which is an option for some if they do not NEED to sell.

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Maybe it is different in some areas.

In my area the number of properties for sale is increasing very quickly and is far higher than I have ever seen it.

If there is a massive increase in volume and a decrease in sales (already seen in LR stats) then sooner or later there must be price drops, unless vendors sit waiting on unrealistic prices... which is an option for some if they do not NEED to sell.

I thought this in my area over year ago – in becontree before the banks interest rate announcement there were approximately 50 properties – this went up to 217 – and now back to 131.

200% increase in properties = no difference (prices are on the up/ no crash in area)

What is your area – did you get a 200% increase in properties?

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Guest Winners and Losers

Absolutely me thinks. There goes the supply and demand argument. I posted some time ago that the spring bounce would turn into oversupply. Keep ramping VI's, the more property on the market the better.

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no, sheeple will just see it as a chance to ramp their prices 'cos everyone else is. they wouldn't want to miss out, would they? selling a house for most people is now about making money, not moving on.

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Guest Winners and Losers

no, sheeple will just see it as a chance to ramp their prices 'cos everyone else is. they wouldn't want to miss out, would they? selling a house for most people is now about making money, not moving on.

Exactly, more property at more ramped prices = buyer/seller standoff as buyers have more pick. I will not be surprised if we start to see more headlines relating to 'realistic pricing'.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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