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Its Not So Much About Buying A House Anymore

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I am in the ranks of the compulsive HPCer, monitoring this place and rightmove on a daily basis, watching the tide turn slowly in my favour and the day arrive when we will have that extra bedroom and a kitchen with room for two standees.

But after last night's discussion on house prices down the pub, with the usual prices never go down etc, I was particularily surprised by an accountant friend using SIPPS as a bastion of HPI. He seemed blissfully unaware that sipps not only applied from April 2006, but that it also wouldn't apply at all following Mr Browns U-Turn.

Its not just the denial that a bubble exists, it seems there has never been a correction before either. History, it would appear, is bunk afterall.

Am I as wrong as they accuse me to be, a statistic interpretting heretic shaking the foundations of their own subreality? Did I miss something somewhere about property actually being a safe investment or do I suspect a case selfcert mortgage denial? The conversation revealed a substantial misunderstanding of market dynamics on the part my friends and a sense that recessions were something that happened to other people.

'House prices only what?' I will ask, as corporate frugalism deprives them of their jobs. But I doubt they'll understand, prefering to follow the spin wherever it may lead, will I be robbed of my victory roll in the face of the bleeding obvious? What will it take to demonstrate speculative markets will always end in tears? The signs are there, but theres no getting through. How can something so obvious be so difficult to comprehend?

It worries me that one that makes their living through finacial advise can justify their irrational arguments with notions of rent inflation. I shake my head.

An affordable home is critical, but right now, I want to be proved right, and proved right with style. House Prices never drop my backside!

So ends my Sunday Rant.

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I say, old chap, that's simply not cricket!

Mind you, I know *exactly* how you feel. And I'm pretty confident about this one.

I will also be the epitome of sympathy and magnanimity when it all plays through. :)

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It worries me that one that makes their living through finacial advise can justify their irrational arguments with notions of rent inflation. I shake my head.

Back in the late '80s I went to a party and got talking with a 20-something financial adviser who, frightenly, did not seem to know anything about anything financial. He worked for some well known name on a small salary and commission basis and was boasting about how much money he was making.

He then tried to get me to become a 'financial adviser' also. I pointed out that I knew next to nothing about financial matters and would not feel easy advising others on what to do with their money. To which I was told that it was easy and that anything I needed to know I could learn in a short period of time. I declined the 'kind' invitation.

These days I feel the benchmark test for any financial adviser is asking him or her what flowers they like and whether they have any thoughts on tulips - if they don't know about tulips then, IMPO, avoid! ;)

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These days I feel the benchmark test for any financial adviser is asking him or her what flowers they like and whether they have any thoughts on tulips - if they don't know about tulips then, IMPO, avoid! ;)

As I understand it, nowadays an education with regard tulips, and particularly dutch tulips only resides in those much despised "soft" arts degrees. Thats where I learned about them - as a cultural rather than economic phenomena. A broad soft education is not always as wasted as some may think.

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I am in the ranks of the compulsive HPCer, monitoring this place and rightmove on a daily basis, watching the tide turn slowly in my favour and the day arrive when we will have that extra bedroom and a kitchen with room for two.......

There is no point in trying to explain your point of view to others. Eveyone I have ever spoken to about possible HPC and how the current housing market is bad for a lot of people treats me like i'm talking out my @rse. Recently had an argument with my now ex girlfriends family due to my unwillingless to buy yet. She is planning to get a mortgage guarenteed by her dad. Got all the crap about a house not being an investment etc and price will keep going up. Tried to explain the possibilities and that now was a good time to actually wait and see (if you were gonna buy should have done when they were goin up fast). I don't see it as an investment but don't want to spend many £10k's over the price and make someone else rich off my hard work. Could have house and porsche for the same money in couple of years. If they don't drop in price then haven't lost out by waiting and who in their right mind thinks they will keep going up.

All her family know is that property has made them feel rich and anyone slating it stirrs up a lot of anger so they wouldn't listen. Just made out like i'm some kinda tw@t for not wanting to buy. Nobs!

Edited by Anti_Claus

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There is no point in trying to explain your point of view to others. Eveyone I have ever spoken to about possible HPC and how the current housing market is bad for a lot of people treats me like i'm talking out my @rse.

I wouldn't give up so easily! I have learnt to be a little more circumspect, but will still freely express myself when occasion demands it.

People's opinions are like the market in general. You cannot expect to instantaneously reverse a train that was hurtling at top speed in a certain direction.

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So True !

I have been spouting HPC/Recession/Depression/Peak Oil for a good year or two now ...... naturally it left everyone roaring with laughter :)

Now that these things are virtually on our doorstep, I can see all these same people viewing me in complete awe !! :D

There is a scene out of Trading Places where Eddie Murphy is in a restaurant and somebody asks him what he thinks will happen in the market ..... suddenly the entire restaurant is in pin-drop silence just to hear what he's about to say !!

This is going to be a very common occurance for all HPCers by the end of the year !! :D

Edited by Perfectionist

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All the people i know who're over 35 own one modest home on which they've made huge paper profits they are very pleased with..........All the people i know who're under 35 can't afford to buy a home........

The problem is of course that even the over-35s cannot realise their ''profits'' or afford to trade up without committing financial suicide as the rungs on the ''ladder'' are too far apart ....

My point is that only a small percentage of the population have actually benefited from this massive asset price inflation............which is why I hate it..........

Plenty of people live in basic homes with £200k of equity yet their children can't afford to leave home

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My point is that only a small percentage of the population have actually benefited from this massive asset price inflation............which is why I hate it..........

... and precisely why the housing market is the biggest Pyramid Selling Scam that has ever been in operation.

And it's worked devastatingly well to screw the next generation out of ownership and condemning them to financial and rental slavery.

Probably something to do with the bubble having had Government sanction and full support by the greedy banks/building societies, crooked Estate Agents, foolish media, and almost everyone who has power in the United Kingdom.

Michael, the subject of your thread rings true with me. This has gone on for so long in my case, that it's not just about buying a damn house anymore. The stakes feel higher than that.

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They may drop, but not as much as you would like.

I do not know how much they will fall, or how far from the bottom we happen to be. As an owner occupier there is a limit to the extent I would see the falls reach as this place has to sell too.

The hopeful outcome from this correction is that I buy a house for my family, with affordable repayments regardless of interest rates. It would be foolish to buy now and have to cancel Sky, Broadband, mobile contracts, foreign holidays and the other joys my lifestyle entails just make a few freinds feel easier about their own overextended predicament, only to lose the darned thing because of an half percent increase in interest rate. That would be mad, but my bullish freinds and family just do not understand that they bought at the right time, nor do they see how they themselves could not afford their own homes should they be buying now. It is this, combined with the patronising 'just a village idiot' attitude, that irritates me more than not actually having a big enough house.

I see falls of atleast 50% likely. The bulls are right, it is different this time. We didn't have the discount internet retailers before, or excess migrant labour creating downward wage pressures, or practically universal offshoring. I do not know where this is all going, but the only thing I am certain of, is that the house price crash is a dead cert.

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I see falls of atleast 50% likely. The bulls are right, it is different this time. We didn't have the discount internet retailers before, or excess migrant labour creating downward wage pressures, or practically universal offshoring. I do not know where this is all going, but the only thing I am certain of, is that the house price crash is a dead cert.

Certainly where I live in Surrey an average OK house is approx 300K

If you knock off 50% it would make it 150K - still not exactly cheap, but probably a fair price, given the average wages

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The problem is of course that even the over-35s cannot realise their ''profits'' or afford to trade up without committing financial suicide

Which is what we absolutely must encourage them to do, if they're the sort who say prices only go up: Tell them to eat their own dogfood. We're eating ours!

And it's worked devastatingly well to screw the next generation out of ownership and condemning them to financial and rental slavery.

You're so militant about this! You don't have to buy. No financial slavery. British residential property has been in an horrendous bear-market for 18 months now.

It would be foolish to buy now and have to cancel Sky, Broadband, mobile contracts, foreign holidays and the other joys my lifestyle entails

(snip)

We didn't have the discount internet retailers before, or excess migrant labour creating downward wage pressures, or practically universal offshoring. I do not know where this is all going, but the only thing I am certain of, is that the house price crash is a dead cert.

I've been thinking about us "turning japanese", so to speak. The only problem with this is that the British people - as I see them - would NEVER accept it. That would imply over-saving for non-buyers, and extreme frugality for buyers. As a nation we just love our consumerism too much for this to be a possibility. It's not just the young "IPOD" generation either. People just expect to be able to have stuff now.

We're early days (so to speak) in the crash now, and instead of the young coming to the conclusion "Oh I must stop buying this stuff and save for a house" they'll just conclude "f**k it - houses are too damn expensive there's no point", even if it's just a subconcious thing.

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We're early days (so to speak) in the crash now, and instead of the young coming to the conclusion "Oh I must stop buying this stuff and save for a house" they'll just conclude "f**k it - houses are too damn expensive there's no point", even if it's just a subconcious thing.

Sounds like a house buyers' strike, then.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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