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No Muggy Bear

What Next For The Economy?

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Where do you see us going forward to the next decade?

Sh1t on toast, I added a poll, but it didn't ork.

Answers on a postcard please?

Options were:

1. Growth 3% +

2. Stagnant or better

3. Stagnant or worse

4. Slight recession

5. Recession or worse

6. Depression!

If someone could fix my entry I would be most grateful, there is no otion to edit the poll info, which seems to have disappeared!

Moderator edit: Sorry, I've tried, but can't add a poll to an existing topic :(.

Edited by The_Oldie

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I'd like to say:

4. Slight recession

But I fear it may be worse. Even the public sector is being run into the ground and we're all skint so more tax rises are just going to make going to work uneconomical.

Though, a small part of me does wish to see an economic pull back. We've just got too wasteful.

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I'd like to say:

4. Slight recession

But I fear it may be worse. Even the public sector is being run into the ground and we're all skint so more tax rises are just going to make going to work uneconomical.

Though, a small part of me does wish to see an economic pull back. We've just got too wasteful.

Thanks for your response, I agree but I would like to see a moderator come to save me and make this a poll,

Pretty please?

Guess they are all out on the lash, it being a Saturday night and all. :)

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I think there may be a depression and negative inflation.

1. HPI slows and goes negative.

2. No more MEW.

3. This will impact consumer spending severely, which means our economy will suffer.

4. Prices of goods will be driven ever lower through online shopping and cheap imports and lack of money.

5. Companies will fail as their products are worth less by the time they come to sell them.

6. Less people can get a jobs.

7. People have less money

8. Go to step 3 until noone has any money.

9. People have no money and a forced to survive by eating local wildlife

10. Rampant bird flu throughout UK

Probably.

:)

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Bad recession, for 3 or 4 years. I agree that the FTSE won't be massively affected.

You will be okay if you work in a fairly essential job or an export industry. Everyone else watch out, especially non-essential, non-export service sector, e.g. hairdressers, estate agents, IFAs, etc.

frugalista

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Surely the FTSE would be impacted considerably.

FTSE is a representation of the UK's top 100 companies, I cannot see them producing revenue of any consequence if nobody has a job to buy the goods.

I think in answer to the question in 10 yrs time we will be heading out of recession with the green shoots of recovery taking place.

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Surely the FTSE would be impacted considerably.

FTSE is a representation of the UK's top 100 companies, I cannot see them producing revenue of any consequence if nobody has a job to buy the goods.

I think in answer to the question in 10 yrs time we will be heading out of recession with the green shoots of recovery taking place.

These days the FTSE is far more reliant on the global economy than what goes on in the UK. It was unaffected in the last crash as you can see here:

_ftse.png

post-1019-1140340124.png

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I think there is a big chance of a depression associated with deflation. Every week things in the shops and online seem to be getting cheaper.

Even if interest rates are cut and the pound falls then I think this will not have much effect as people are beginning to become so strapped for spare cash that they will only buy essentials. So inflation will not be introduced through goods.

The only thing people will spend money on are huge mortgages for their homes (until the speculators can see it's game over for capital gains). Everything else is not needed. Who really needs new cars and furniture, especially in this downturn??

Are you ready fro Japan style deflation?

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1. Recession--3 or 4 years (Depression if Bird Flu affects humans in significant numbers)

2. HPC 30-60% depending on region

3. Unemployment 10-12%

4. Tories elected and blamed for the mess as they will be holding the baby when the poisins hatch out.

5. Significant Global conflict and regional wars. Flight to safety will revalue $ upwards.

Other than that some good things will happen also!

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Yep, Recession is coming.

The debt/credit binge of the past 5 years is now exhausted. People simply can no longer afford to get into more and more debt... and there comes a time when, even for a certain kind of woman, there is a limit to just how many new kitchens, bathrooms, fitted wardrobes, carpets, beige paint, gadgets, etc, etc, etc, that you can buy.

(Yes, many Men are equally as guilty wanting the plasma TV, the sound system, the flash car, etc.)

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Yep, Recession is coming.

The debt/credit binge of the past 5 years is now exhausted. People simply can no longer afford to get into more and more debt... and there comes a time when, even for a certain kind of woman, there is a limit to just how many new kitchens, bathrooms, fitted wardrobes, carpets, beige paint, gadgets, etc, etc, etc, that you can buy.

(Yes, many Men are equally as guilty wanting the plasma TV, the sound system, the flash car, etc.)

Definitely, and the conclusive proof in my opinion is in the bottom of this thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...0&gopid=302182&

What are good stocks to be holding in a recession?

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1. Recession--3 or 4 years (Depression if Bird Flu affects humans in significant numbers)

2. HPC 30-60% depending on region

3. Unemployment 10-12%

4. Tories elected and blamed for the mess as they will be holding the baby when the poisins hatch out.

5. Significant Global conflict and regional wars. Flight to safety will revalue $ upwards.

Other than that some good things will happen also!

If 4. happens, then unless there is national consensus and consistent government policy across political divides, the recession/depression will be not 3 to 4 years but more like 15 plus. I'm not optimistic that politicians will be this honest, hence I am hoping for another Labour government, total collapse with even the dumbest convinced we are up s**t creek, then a 10-15 year rebuild under (probably) Conservatives, total recession say 7-10 years at best.

The problem is, Thatcher being in for 11 years was a minor miracle, and North Sea oil/gas plus the fact that the UK was the first to truly privatise gave the UK an edge internationally. Now we have a less qualified workforce, just as many non-jobs, but with whole classes of people whose interest is to vote in anyone who promises to maintain this status quo, and some ugly foreign press. Recovering this time around will be much harder and requires much more luck.

5. conjures up some very ugly scenarios indeed.

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Yep, Recession is coming.

The debt/credit binge of the past 5 years is now exhausted. People simply can no longer afford to get into more and more debt... and there comes a time when, even for a certain kind of woman, there is a limit to just how many new kitchens, bathrooms, fitted wardrobes, carpets, beige paint, gadgets, etc, etc, etc, that you can buy.

(Yes, many Men are equally as guilty wanting the plasma TV, the sound system, the flash car, etc.)

I agree with 'Masked Tulip' in her analysis of the debt binge, but a minor quibble.

However, one quibble with the quote, "recession is coming". In my opinion it's not coming but it's *HERE*. High st collapse, house price falls, lowest new car sales for 14 years, bankruptcies and insolvencies up, repos up, DIY firms going bust, inverted yield curve. Good lord, if this doesn't add up to a recession I don't know what does!!!!!

The only thing that's "coming" is much, much worse because this is just the beginning.

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The poor state of the public finances haven't been highlighted by the press or anyone in here as much as they should have been.....so Laurejon's panic tax increases are definitely on the cards.

We're not in a recession yet and the excess of govt spending over tax revenues is I think 3.5% or 4% of GDP..which I think is just about acceptable at the bottom of the recession but where we are now in the economic cycle it's frightening.........

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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