Break up of the UK inevitable?

[Pmax2020]

Where do you guys stand on the future of the United Kingdom?

Our staunch unionist media portray the independence movement as being regressive, insular and anti-English, but I think it’s simply a desire for self-determination/governance.

Without launching into a rant regarding the lies we’ve been fed up here in Scotland for generations - at the most basic level I want independence because I believe the people best placed to lead and govern Scotland are only those that live and work here. No one else.

The fact that the prime minister denies the will of the democratically elected pro-Indy majority in our parliament proves it’s not a fair and mutually respectful union. The polls have Yes/No split 50/50 - though the media, Boris and the unionists speak as though the Yes camp is some noisy 10% that just shouts louder. 

I have a great affiliation with England and it’s people, but we’re simply not on the same page when it comes to all the big issues. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Pmax2020

[kzb]

28 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

Where do you guys stand on the future of the United Kingdom?

Our staunch unionist media portray the independence movement as being regressive, insular and anti-English, but I think it’s simply a desire for self-determination/governance.

Without launching into a rant regarding the lies we’ve been fed up here in Scotland for generations - at the most basic level I want independence because I believe the people best placed to lead and govern Scotland are only those that live and work here. No one else.

The fact that the prime minister denies the will of the democratically elected pro-Indy majority in our parliament proves it’s not a fair and mutually respectful union. The polls have Yes/No split 50/50 - though the media, Boris and the unionists speak as though the Yes camp is some noisy 10% that just shouts louder. 

I have a great affiliation with England and it’s people, but we’re simply not on the same page when it comes to all the big issues. 

It's not an independence movement.  Not if you aim to join the EU.

Just exactly what big issues are you not on the same page as the English?  Except for the EU that is.

This time, before we have a referendum, let's get it sorted beforehand what the deal will be.  Who gets what assets and how are the debts apportioned.  What kind of Scotland/England customs border will there be.  How will Scottish pensions be paid.  What happens if the EU refuse to accept Scotland.

The problems are Brexit X10, so let's get it sorted before a referendum.

 

 

[Fromage Frais]

Ironically Brexit has made Scottish independence less likely at this time.

The best thing now would be to get rid of BJ and then if a suitable replacement found call the referendum now whilst the economy heads down the shitter.

You may well disagree but as the EU is a big group is gives smaller countries/regions the feel good factor of being in a larger club with many facets controlled or outsourced to it.

Scotland would have been able to take on the Euro, trade deals and have freedom of movement etc etc.  The issue would have been reduced as one EU region trading with anther.

But now we are all out Scotland has the problem that it is not in the EU or the UK after independence.   You could say the EU would have Scotland right away but maybe it does not work out like that so you would either need the £ or the Euro or even a Scottish currency.  If not how is that fair to other countries in the queue to see the steps skipped.

Could Scotland go it alone.. of course they could, amazing people and after a lot of pain and downsizing the spending of government they would be a success but maybe a poorer one once the border with England goes up and the UK government and and defensive infrastructure is relocated south.

I love Scotland my ancestors are from Marvig whom came to Norfolk via the fishing trade and started their own businesses after staying.  When I beat the family history path to the ports of Scotland to visit hundreds of years of graves I feel that it is my country too and if you take my DNA I am more Scottish than many residents.

Seems a shame to me such a small island with so much greatness together and hundreds of years of marriage and internal relocation.  Feels like putting a border up in the family home to me I love you and I hope you don't go.

The being said call the bluff now and get it done now imho but there has to be an agreement its once every 25 years with a window as if you have a referendum every couple of years it just causes havoc.



 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Fromage Frais

[msi]

I'd say that it's more likely to have NI reunification then Scottish Independence, both happening before the break up of the EU.

[Fromage Frais]

4 minutes ago, msi said:

I'd say that it's more likely to have NI reunification then Scottish Independence, both happening before the break up of the EU.

I agree there.

But it is bizarre do Ireland actually want NI?

I think its yes in principle bot nope to the costs and potential terrorism.

[reddog]

I don't think it is inevitable.

 

Brexit has made the SNP think they can ignore the result of the 2014 once in a generation vote.

 

I think if the EU/ Euro currency starts to have problems.  Then we may pull together more ironic, as there will be no "oh we can join the EU and everything will be great".

 

 

[Insane]

14 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

But it is bizarre do Ireland actually want NI?

No according to relatives I have living in Ireland.

 

[pig]

1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

Where do you guys stand on the future of the United Kingdom?

Our staunch unionist media portray the independence movement as being regressive, insular and anti-English, but I think it’s simply a desire for self-determination/governance.

Without launching into a rant regarding the lies we’ve been fed up here in Scotland for generations - at the most basic level I want independence because I believe the people best placed to lead and govern Scotland are only those that live and work here. No one else.

The fact that the prime minister denies the will of the democratically elected pro-Indy majority in our parliament proves it’s not a fair and mutually respectful union. The polls have Yes/No split 50/50 - though the media, Boris and the unionists speak as though the Yes camp is some noisy 10% that just shouts louder. 

I have a great affiliation with England and it’s people, but we’re simply not on the same page when it comes to all the big issues. 

I'm English and pro-Union. But difficult not to be sympathetic to pro-independence Scots when half of England feel the same way lol.

While we were always 'independent' of the EU and sovereign, as somebody who voted Remain its difficult intellectual territory for me to make a good case for Scottish independence, Federal UK maybe ?

To be honest, again while somewhat sympathetic, after the last few years I'm now just sick of 'nationalists'.

[coypondboy]

Londoners will be looking forward to this as their hard earned taxes haelp to pay for Wales/Scotland and Northern Ireland they might even get a tax cut if this goes ahead.  Just imagine a Scottish SNP in charge of the finances or a Sinn Fein Northern Ireland or maybe a Plaid Cymry Wales.  The wealthy and young looking for work in these new countries will be taxed until the pips squeak so will sell up and move to England as these new countries struggle.  Just imagine if we introduced a new immigration policy for them as hundreds of thousands of welsh/scottish and northern irish already head to London after graduating every year for work. They will now have to head for Europe and learn a language and take out Private Medical Insurance.

[byron78]

36 minutes ago, reddog said:

I don't think it is inevitable.

 

Brexit has made the SNP think they can ignore the result of the 2014 once in a generation vote.

 

I think if the EU/ Euro currency starts to have problems.  Then we may pull together more ironic, as there will be no "oh we can join the EU and everything will be great".

 

 

That 2014 vote isn't that far away from encompassing that generation though.

I reckon by 2028-30 you have lost both the generation of older voters from 2014 and you also have a new generation of adults etc.

It'll (quite legitimately really given the big change in circumstances since 2016) come round again pretty quickly tbh.

Edited June 26, 2022 by byron78

[byron78]

I think it'll break up entirely by 2040 now.

Brexit is - largely - an English nationalist vote. 

A misguided one so far given the hindsight afforded since 2016.

The Irish, Scots, and Welsh nationalists will be back.

I think the EU will actually get stronger as the world moves away from fossil fuels at a much faster rate thanks to Putin's stupidity. Suspect (if the UK hasn't rejoined by then) that most of them will have left us and joined them.

Russia will fail by 2050 without fossil fuels as well. That'll break up into seperate regions etc.

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by byron78

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Ironically Brexit has made Scottish independence less likely at this time.

The best thing now would be to get rid of BJ and then if a suitable replacement found call the referendum now whilst the economy heads down the shitter.

You may well disagree but as the EU is a big group is gives smaller countries/regions the feel good factor of being in a larger club with many facets controlled or outsourced to it.

Scotland would have been able to take on the Euro, trade deals and have freedom of movement etc etc.  The issue would have been reduced as one EU region trading with anther.

But now we are all out Scotland has the problem that it is not in the EU or the UK after independence.   You could say the EU would have Scotland right away but maybe it does not work out like that so you would either need the £ or the Euro or even a Scottish currency.  If not how is that fair to other countries in the queue to see the steps skipped.

Could Scotland go it alone.. of course they could, amazing people and after a lot of pain and downsizing the spending of government they would be a success but maybe a poorer one once the border with England goes up and the UK government and and defensive infrastructure is relocated south.

I love Scotland my ancestors are from Marvig whom came to Norfolk via the fishing trade and started their own businesses after staying.  When I beat the family history path to the ports of Scotland to visit hundreds of years of graves I feel that it is my country too and if you take my DNA I am more Scottish than many residents.

Seems a shame to me such a small island with so much greatness together and hundreds of years of marriage and internal relocation.  Feels like putting a border up in the family home to me I love you and I hope you don't go.

The being said call the bluff now and get it done now imho but there has to be an agreement its once every 25 years with a window as if you have a referendum every couple of years it just causes havoc.



 

Scotland runs a massive budget deficit.

That would have to be closed before joining the EU.

Then theres the problem of Spin block ascension, due to its breakaway regions.

I can't see any pros of having NI, Wales and Scotlan for the English.

And I can't see any Pros for the EU having NI, Wales n Scotland.

 

 

[spyguy]

51 minutes ago, byron78 said:

I think it'll break up entirely by 2040 now.

Brexit is - largely - an English nationalist vote. 

A misguided one so far given the hindsight afforded since 2016.

The Irish, Scots, and Welsh nationalists will be back.

I think the EU will actually get stronger as the world moves away from fossil fuels at a much faster rate thanks to Putin's stupidity. Suspect (if the UK hasn't rejoined by then) that most of them will have left us and joined them.

Russia will fail by 2050 without fossil fuels as well. That'll break up into seperate regions etc.

 

Wales voted for Brexit.

The seperation of the UK was baked in when Bfown granted the assemblies but didty change the English system to counter balance.

 

 

[Quicken]

52 minutes ago, byron78 said:

I think it'll break up entirely by 2040 now.

Brexit is - largely - an English nationalist vote. 

A misguided one so far given the hindsight afforded since 2016.

The Irish, Scots, and Welsh nationalists will be back.

I think the EU will actually get stronger as the world moves away from fossil fuels at a much faster rate thanks to Putin's stupidity. Suspect (if the UK hasn't rejoined by then) that most of them will have left us and joined them.

Russia will fail by 2050 without fossil fuels as well. That'll break up into seperate regions etc.

 

Never forget that Wales voted for Brexit too.

I live in Scotland and post Brexit I'm 100% pro Scottish independence. I can see why the SNP wants a ref while BJ is still PM as he's emblematic of the English Tory problem for Scotland. The vote could be tight though; project fear will be deployed. I think it would be ideal if Scottish Labour became pro-independence.

I support Irish unification too. Expect that in the next 20 years.

[Pmax2020]

The general consensus is that Scotland would join the European Free Trade Association, not the EU - and there’s a strong case there would be no issues with that. 

Anyone arguing for the Union in my view has to address these two points…

1) The media make independence all about the SNP & Nicola Sturgeon whom they vilify on a daily basis - and not about the enormous 2.5 million pro-Indy contingent that democratically elected the nationalist party (regardless of their leader).

As the Tories beat Labour in the popular vote by a mere 30% in 2019… The SNPs ‘popular’ vote at the last election was 220% higher than that of the runner up Tories!! The SNP received 48% of the vote and the Greens tip the ‘Nationalist’ over 50%.

That shows the enormous disparity between either countries broad political position.

2) Using the ‘once in generation’ tag is an incredibly weak and undemocratic argument against another referendum 9 years later. The 2014 ‘Better Together’ campaign was founded exclusively on the notion that voting to remain in the union was ‘the only way for Scotland to remain in Europe’. And that didn’t happen. 

Are people in their mid 20s not entitled to vote on the matter? How long should these people wait? Another 5 years? 10? 15 years?

The comment about London subsidising the smaller nations is so far from the truth it’s not worth a response. Scots pay more in taxes and our national resources have been worth trillions to the UK as a whole. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Pmax2020

[byron78]

6 minutes ago, Quicken said:

Never forget that Wales voted for Brexit too.

I live in Scotland and post Brexit I'm 100% pro Scottish independence. I can see why the SNP wants a ref while BJ is still PM as he's emblematic of the English Tory problem for Scotland. The vote could be tight though; project fear will be deployed. I think it would be ideal if Scottish Labour became pro-independence.

I support Irish unification too. Expect that in the next 20 years.

Wales defo voted for Brexit but it's one of those regions that have been decimated by the cuts in funding as a result.

Most Welsh folk I know are full of regrets now.

[byron78]

18 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Wales voted for Brexit.

The seperation of the UK was baked in when Bfown granted the assemblies but didty change the English system to counter balance.

 

 

Of course it was Gordon Brown's fault.

I also heard he invented a time machine and killed Archduke Ferdinand, so you can blame him for WW1 now as well.

Edited June 26, 2022 by byron78

[Lucky Larry]

1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

I agree there.

But it is bizarre do Ireland actually want NI?

I think its yes in principle bot nope to the costs and potential terrorism.

There will be no terrorism from the Unionist community , they are a very small minority now and won't have the backing of the British State that facilitated it in the past . The decent people on that side will integrate and get on with it , the permanently angry mob will be ignored . 

Scotland will vote Independence due to their treatment by various UK Govts particularly the Tories who they haven't voted for since 1955 and being dragged out of the EU against their will . The more Johnson and his gang try to deny them the right to self determination the more people will vote to leave . They don't want ruled by Tories they want to be part of the EU and Independence will bring both. The EU will not refuse them entry . Little Englanders will end up with a little England , isolated and unimportant 

[Lucky Larry]

22 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Scotland runs a massive budget deficit.

Utter nonsense , if it did Johnson would happily cut it loose 

[Confusion of VIs]

34 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

Utter nonsense , if it did Johnson would happily cut it loose 

The problem with that is Scotland is not leally liable for any of the UK debt.    

[andrewwk]

5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The problem with that is Scotland is not leally liable for any of the UK debt.    

sounds a bit like the magical that Brexiteers trotted out before the referendum. If and when Scotland votes for independence, I guess the negotiation process would look remarkably similar to the Brexit one i.e. the far larger party playing hardball and the smaller one sucking it all up.

[andrewwk]

1 minute ago, andrewwk said:

sounds a bit like the magical that Brexiteers trotted out before the referendum. If and when Scotland votes for independence, I guess the negotiation process would look remarkably similar to the Brexit one i.e. the far larger party playing hardball and the smaller one sucking it all up.

and that's not an argument against independence, just against the bs snake-oil promises that are always being made. I am sure Scotland would flourish after independence, but pretending that it will all be plain-sailing just seems dumb.

[cbathpc]

Just seems like another “what’s the point” to me. The only thing Scottish Independence will do is line the pockets of politicians and their mates. 
 

Scotland will have to increase tax and will inevitably face brain drain. 
 

As an earlier poster said, another referendum on the topic has to have clearly defined lines on what independence actually means. No more we’ll sort it after the fact. 

[Confusion of VIs]

3 minutes ago, andrewwk said:

sounds a bit like the magical that Brexiteers trotted out before the referendum. If and when Scotland votes for independence, I guess the negotiation process would look remarkably similar to the Brexit one i.e. the far larger party playing hardball and the smaller one sucking it all up.

Except this is factually correct not a Brexit lie.

What UK debts are Scotland's? - BBC News

No doubt a deal would be done but it would reflect the far stronger position Scotland v the UK is in compared to the UK v the EU (no legal liability for debt and the UK's reliance on Scotland for naval and air bases are pretty big cards).   

[kzb]

29 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Except this is factually correct not a Brexit lie.

What UK debts are Scotland's? - BBC News

No doubt a deal would be done but it would reflect the far stronger position Scotland v the UK is in compared to the UK v the EU (no legal liability for debt and the UK's reliance on Scotland for naval and air bases are pretty big cards).   

There was no legal basis for the the UK debt to the EU either !

From what I've been reading, there has been no state succession in recent history without also apportioning the goods and debts.   To tell the Scots otherwise is a lie.  They are not going to be paid for past oil either.